Table Of ContentGeophysical Monograph Series
Geophysical Monograph Series
175 A Continental Plate Boundary: Tectonics at South Island, New 200 Lagrangian Modeling of the Atmosphere John Lin (Ed.)
Zealand David Okaya, Tim Stem, and Fred Davey (Eds.) 201 Modeling the Ionosphere-Thermosphere Jospeh D. Huba,
176 Exploring Venus as a Terrestrial Planet Larry W. Esposito, Robert W. Schunk, and George V Khazanov (Eds.)
Ellen R. Stofan, and Thomas E. Cravens (Eds.) 202 The Mediterranean Sea: Temporal Variability and Spatial
177 Ocean Modeling in an Eddying Regime Patterns Gian Luca Eusebi Borzelli, Miroslav Gacic,
Matthew Hecht and Hiroyasu Hasumi (Eds.) Piero Lionello, and Paola Malanotte-Rizzoli (Eds.)
178 Magma to Microbe: Modeling Hydrothermal Processes 203 Future Earth - Advancing Civic Understanding of
at Oceanic Spreading Centers Robert P. Lowell, Jeffrey S. the Anthropocene Diana Dalbotten, Gillian Roehrig,
Seewald, Anna Metaxas, and Michael R. Perfit (Eds.) and Patrick Hamilton (Eds.)
179 Active Tectonics and Seismic Potential of Alaska 204 The Galápagos: A Natural Laboratory for the
Jeffrey T. Freymueller, Peter J. Haeussler, Robert L. Wesson, Earth Sciences Karen S. Harpp, Eric Mittelstaedt,
and Göran Ekström (Eds.) Noémi d’Ozouville, and David W. Graham (Eds.)
180 Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Observations, Projections, 205 Modeling Atmospheric and Oceanic Flows: Insightsfrom
Mechanisms, and Implications Eric T. DeWeaver, Cecilia M. Laboratory Experiments and Numerical Simulations
Bitz, and L.-Bruno Tremblay (Eds.) Thomas von Larcher and Paul D. Williams (Eds.)
181 Midlatitude Ionospheric Dynamics and Disturbances 206 Remote Sensing of the Terrestrial Water Cycle Venkat
Paul M. Kintner, Jr., Anthea J. Coster, Tim Fuller-Rowell, Anthony Lakshmi (Eds.)
J. Mannucci, Michael Mendillo, and Roderick Heelis (Eds.) 207 Magnetotails in the Solar System Andreas Keiling, Caitríona
182 The Stromboli Volcano: An Integrated Study of the Jackman, and Peter Delamere (Eds.)
2002–2003 Eruption Sonia Calvari, Salvatore Inguaggiato, 208 Hawaiian Volcanoes: From Source to Surface Rebecca Carey,
Giuseppe Puglisi, Maurizio Ripepe, and Mauro Rosi (Eds.) Valerie Cayol, Michael Poland, and Dominique Weis (Eds.)
183 Carbon Sequestration and Its Role in the Global Carbon 209 Sea Ice: Physics, Mechanics, and Remote Sensing
Cycle Brian J. McPherson and Eric T. Sundquist (Eds.) Mohammed Shokr and Nirmal Sinha (Eds.)
184 Carbon Cycling in Northern Peatlands Andrew J. Baird, Lisa R. 210 Fluid Dynamics in Complex Fractured-Porous Systems Boris
Belyea, Xavier Comas, A. S. Reeve, and Lee D. Slater (Eds.) Faybishenko, Sally M. Benson, and John E. Gale (Eds.)
185 Indian Ocean Biogeochemical Processes and Ecological 211 Subduction Dynamics: From Mantle Flow to Mega
Variability Jerry D. Wiggert, Raleigh R. Hood, S. Wajih A. Naqvi, Disasters Gabriele Morra, David A. Yuen, Scott King,
Kenneth H. Brink, and Sharon L. Smith (Eds.) Sang Mook Lee, and Seth Stein (Eds.)
186 Amazonia and Global Change Michael Keller, Mercedes 212 The Early Earth: Accretion and Differentiation James Badro
Bustamante, John Gash, and Pedro Silva Dias (Eds.) and Michael Walter (Eds.)
187 Surface Ocean–Lower Atmosphere Processes 213 Global Vegetation Dynamics: Concepts and Applications in
Corinne Le Quèrè and Eric S. Saltzman (Eds.) the MC1 Model Dominique Bachelet and David Turner (Eds.)
188 Diversity of Hydrothermal Systems on Slow 214 Extreme Events: Observations, Modeling and
Spreading Ocean Ridges Peter A. Rona, Colin W. Devey, Economics Mario Chavez, Michael Ghil, and Jaime Urrutia-
Jérôme Dyment, and Bramley J. Murton (Eds.) Fucugauchi (Eds.)
189 Climate Dynamics: Why Does Climate Vary? 215 Auroral Dynamics and Space Weather Yongliang Zhang and
De-Zheng Sun and Frank Bryan (Eds.) Larry Paxton (Eds.)
190 The Stratosphere: Dynamics, Transport, and Chemistry 216 Low‐Frequency Waves in Space Plasmas Andreas Keiling,
L. M. Polvani, A. H. Sobel, and D. W. Waugh (Eds.) Dong‐Hun Lee, and Valery Nakariakov (Eds.)
191 Rainfall: State of the Science Firat Y. Testik and Mekonnen 217 Deep Earth: Physics and Chemistry of the Lower Mantle and
Gebremichael (Eds.) Core Hidenori Terasaki and Rebecca A. Fischer (Eds.)
192 Antarctic Subglacial Aquatic Environments Martin J. Siegert, 218 Integrated Imaging of the Earth: Theory and Applications Max
Mahlon C. Kennicut II, and Robert A. Bindschadler Moorkamp, Peter G. Lelievre, Niklas Linde, and Amir
193 Abrupt Climate Change: Mechanisms, Patterns, Khan (Eds.)
and Impacts Harunur Rashid, Leonid Polyak, and Ellen 219 Plate Boundaries and Natural Hazards Joao Duarte and
Mosley-Thompson (Eds.) Wouter Schellart (Eds.)
194 Stream Restoration in Dynamic Fluvial Systems: Scientific 220 Ionospheric Space Weather: Longitude and Hemispheric
Approaches, Analyses, and Tools Andrew Simon, Sean J. Dependences and Lower Atmosphere Forcing Timothy Fuller-
Bennett, and Janine M. Castro (Eds.) Rowell, Endawoke Yizengaw, Patricia H. Doherty, and Sunanda
195 Monitoring and Modeling the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill: Basu (Eds.)
A Record-Breaking Enterprise Yonggang Liu, 221 Terrestrial Water Cycle and Climate Change: Natural
Amy MacFadyen, Zhen-Gang Ji, and Robert H. Weisberg (Eds.) and Human-Induced Impacts Qiuhong Tang and Taikan
196 Extreme Events and Natural Hazards: The Complexity Oki (Eds.)
Perspective A. Surjalal Sharma, Armin Bunde, 222 Magnetosphere-Ionosphere Coupling in the Solar
Vijay P. Dimri, and Daniel N. Baker (Eds.) System Charles R. Chappell, Robert W. Schunk, Peter M.
197 Auroral Phenomenology and Magnetospheric Processes: Banks, James L. Burch, and Richard M. Thorne (Eds.)
Earth and Other Planets Andreas Keiling, Eric Donovan, 223 Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment: Modeling and
Fran Bagenal, and Tomas Karlsson (Eds.) Decision Support Karin Riley, Peter Webley, and Matthew
198 Climates, Landscapes, and Civilizations Liviu Giosan, Thompson (Eds.)
Dorian Q. Fuller, Kathleen Nicoll, Rowan K. Flad, and 224 Hydrodynamics of Time-Periodic Groundwater Flow:
Peter D. Clift (Eds.) Diffusion Waves in Porous Media Joe S. Depner and Todd C.
199 Dynamics of the Earth’s Radiation Belts and Inner Rasmussen (Eds.)
Magnetosphere Danny Summers, Ian R. Mann, 225 Active Global Seismology Ibrahim Cemen and Yucel Yilmaz
Daniel N. Baker, and Michael Schulz (Eds.) (Eds.)
Geophysical Monograph 226
Climate Extremes
Patterns and Mechanisms
S.‐Y. Simon Wang
Jin‐Ho Yoon
Christopher C. Funk
Robert R. Gillies
Editors
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CONTENTS
Contributors ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������vii
Preface ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������xi
Acknowledgments �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������xiii
Part I: Forcings of Climate Extremes
1 The Changing El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Associated Climate Extremes
Jin‐Yi Yu, Xin Wang, Song Yang, Houk Paek, and Mengyan Chen......................................................................3
2 Weather Extremes Linked to Interaction of the Arctic and Midlatitudes
Timo Vihma ..................................................................................................................................................39
3 Impact of Aerosols on Regional Changes in Climate Extremes
Jana Sillmann and Jinho Yoon ........................................................................................................................51
4 Weakened Flow, Persistent Circulation, and Prolonged Weather Extremes in Boreal Summer
Dim Coumou, Kai Kornhuber, Jascha Lehmann, and Vladimir Petoukhov .......................................................61
5 Land Processes as the Forcing of Extremes: A Review
Min‐Hui Lo, Tzu‐Hsien Kuo, Hao‐Wei Wey, Chia‐Wei Lan, and Jen‐Ping Chen ................................................75
Part II: Processes of Climate Extremes
6 Timing of Anthropogenic Emergence in Climate Extremes
Andrew D. King, Markus G. Donat, Ed Hawkins, and David J. Karoly ............................................................95
7 Recent Increases in Extreme Temperature Occurrence over Land
Scott J. Weaver, Arun Kumar, and Mingyue Chen .........................................................................................105
8 Why Future Shifts in Tropical Precipitation Will Likely Be Small: The Location of the Tropical Rain Belt
and the Hemispheric Contrast of Energy Input to the Atmosphere
Aaron Donohoe and Aiko Voigt ..................................................................................................................115
9 Weather‐Climate Interactions and MJO Influences
Paul E. Roundy, Naoko Sakaeda, Kyle MacRitchie, and Lawrence Gloeckler ................................................139
10 Recent Climate Extremes Associated with the West Pacific Warming Mode
Chris Funk and Andrew Hoell .....................................................................................................................165
11 Connections Between Heat Waves and Circumglobal Teleconnection Patterns in the Northern
Hemisphere Summer
Haiyan Teng and Grant Branstator ..............................................................................................................177
Part III: Regional Climate Extremes
12 North American Drought and Links to Northern Eurasia: The Role of Stationary Rossby Waves
Hailan Wang, Siegfried D. Schubert, and Randal D. Koster ..........................................................................197
13 The California Drought: Trends and Impacts
Shih‐Yu (Simon) Wang, Jinho Yoon, Robert R. Gillies, and Huang‐Hsiung Hsu .............................................223
v
vi Contents
14 Observed Trends in US Tornado Frequency
Adam J. Clark ..............................................................................................................................................237
15 Mechanisms Explaining Recent Changes in Australian Climate Extremes
Sophie C. Lewis, David J. Karoly, Andrew D. King, Sarah E. Perkins, and Markus G. Donat ...........................249
16 Unraveling East Africa’s Climate Paradox
Bradfield Lyon and Nicolas Vigaud ..............................................................................................................265
17 A Physical Model for Extreme Drought over Southwest Asia
Andrew Hoell, Chris Funk, Mathew Barlow, and Forest Cannon ..................................................................283
Part IV: Prediction of Climate Extremes
18 Extratropical Precursors of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation
Kathy V. Pegion and Christopher Selman .....................................................................................................301
19 North Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Prediction: Underlying Science and an Evaluation
of Statistical Models
Philip J. Klotzbach, Mark A. Saunders, Gerald D. Bell, and Eric S. Blake .......................................................315
20 Predicting Subseasonal Precipitation Variations Based on the Madden‐Julian Oscillation
Charles Jones ..............................................................................................................................................329
21 Prediction of Short‐Term Climate Extremes with a Multimodel Ensemble
Emily J. Becker ............................................................................................................................................347
22 Toward Predicting US Tornadoes in the Late 21st Century
Adam J. Clark ..............................................................................................................................................361
Index ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������371
CONTRIBUTORS
Mathew Barlow Dim Coumou
University of Massachusetts Lowell Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)
Environmental Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department of Water and Climate Risk
Lowell, Massachusetts, USA VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam,
The Netherlands; and
Emily J. Becker Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Climate Prediction Center/NOAA and Earth System Analysis
INNOVIM LLC Potsdam, Germany
College Park, Maryland, USA
Markus G. Donat
Gerald D. Bell ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate
Climate Prediction Center System Science
NOAA/NWS/NCEP Climate Change Research Centre
College Park, Maryland, USA University of New South Wales
Sydney, NSW, Australia
Eric S. Blake
National Hurricane Center Aaron Donohoe
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
Miami, Florida, USA Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research
Department Troposphere Research
Grant Branstator Karlsruhe,Germany; and
National Center for Atmospheric Research Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
Boulder, Colorado, USA Columbia University
New York, NY, USA
Forest Cannon
University of California Santa Barbara Chris Funk
Geography US Geological Survey and
Santa Barbara, California, USA University of California Santa Barbara
Geography
Jen‐Ping Chen Santa Barbara, California, USA
Department of Atmospheric Sciences
National Taiwan University Robert R. Gillies
Taipei, Taiwan Utah Climate Center, Utah State University
Logan, Utah, USA; and Department of Plants,
Mengyan Chen Soils, and Climate, Utah State University
State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography Logan, Utah, USA
South China Sea Institute of Oceanology
Chinese Academy of Sciences Lawrence Gloeckler
Guangzhou, Guangdong, China Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences
University at Albany
Mingyue Chen Albany, New York, USA
NOAA/NWS/NCEP Climate Prediction Center
College Park, Maryland, USA Ed Hawkins
National Centre for Atmospheric Science
Adam J. Clark Department of Meteorology
NOAA/OAR National Severe Storms Laboratory University of Reading
Norman, Oklahoma, USA Reading, UK
vii
viii CONTRIBUTORS
Andrew Hoell Chia‐Wei Lan
NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Department of Atmospheric Sciences
Physical Sciences Division National Taiwan University
Boulder, Colorado, USA Taipei, Taiwan
Huang‐Hsiung Hsu Jascha Lehmann
Research Center for Environmental Changes Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan Earth System Analysis
University of Potsdam
Charles Jones Faculty of Science
Department of Geography and Earth Potsdam, Germany
Research Institute
University of California Santa Barbara
Sophie C. Lewis
Santa Barbara, California, USA
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate
System Science
David J. Karoly
Fenner School of Environment and Society
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science
The Australian National University
School of Earth Science
Acton, Australia
University of Melbourne
Melbourne, Australia
Min‐Hui Lo
Andrew D. King Department of Atmospheric Sciences
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate National Taiwan University
System Science Taipei, Taiwan
School of Earth Science
University of Melbourne Bradfield Lyon
Melbourne, Australia School of Earth and Climate Sciences and Climate
Change Institute
Philip J. Klotzbach University of Maine
Department of Atmospheric Science Orono, Maine, USA
Colorado State University
Fort Collins, Colorado, USA Kyle MacRitchie
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, GES‐DISC
Kai Kornhuber Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Earth System Analysis
Houk Paek
University of Potsdam
Department of Earth System Science
Faculty of Science
University of California
Potsdam, Germany
Irvine, California, USA
Randal D. Koster
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Kathy V. Pegion
Global Modeling and Assimilation Office Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and
Greenbelt, Maryland, USA Earth Sciences and Center for Ocean‐Land‐Atmosphere
Studies
Arun Kumar George Mason University
NOAA/NWS/NCEP Climate Prediction Center Fairfax, Virginia, USA
College Park, Maryland, USA
Sarah E. Perkins
Tzu‐Hsien Kuo ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science
Department of Atmospheric Sciences Climate Change Research Centre
National Taiwan University University of New South Wales
Taipei, Taiwan Sydney, NSW, Australia
CONTRIBUTORS ix
Vladimir Petoukhov Timo Vihma
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) Finnish Meteorological Institute
Department of Water and Climate Risk Helsinki, Finland
VU University Amsterdam
Amsterdam, Aiko Voigt
The Netherlands; and Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Columbia University
Earth System Analysis New York, NY, USA
Potsdam, Germany
Hailan Wang
Paul E. Roundy NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences Global Modeling and Assimilation Office
University at Albany Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
Albany, New York, USA
Shih‐Yu (Simon) Wang
Utah Climate Center, Utah State University
Naoko Sakaeda
Logan, Utah, USA; and
NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
Department of Plants, Soils, and Climate
Physical Sciences Division
Utah State University
Boulder, Colorado, USA
Logan, Utah, USA
Mark A. Saunders
Xin Wang
Department of Space and Climate Physics
State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography
University College London
South China Sea Institute of Oceanology
Holmbury St. Mary
Chinese Academy of Sciences
Dorking, Surrey, UK
Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
Siegfried D. Schubert
Scott J. Weaver
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Environmental Defense Fund
Global Modeling and Assimilation Office
Washington, DC, USA
Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
Hao‐Wei Wey
Christopher Selman
Department of Atmospheric Sciences
Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth
National Taiwan University
Sciences and Center for Ocean‐Land‐Atmosphere
Taipei, Taiwan
Studies
George Mason University Song Yang
Fairfax, Virginia, USA School of Atmospheric Sciences
Sun Yat‐sen University
Jana Sillmann GuangZhou, Guangdong, China;
Center for International Climate and Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate
Environmental Research, Oslo Change and Natural Disaster Studies
Cicero Senter for Klimaforskning
Oslo, Norway Jinho Yoon
School of Earth Sciences and Environmental
Haiyan Teng Engineering
National Center for Atmospheric Research Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology
Boulder, Colorado, USA Repulic of Korea
Nicolas Vigaud Jin‐Yi Yu
International Research Institute for Climate and Society Department of Earth System Science
The Earth Institute, Columbia University University of California
Palisades, New York, USA Irvine, California, USA
PREFACE
Increasing extreme weather and climate events have to benefit the greater scientific community and society at
resulted in tremendous loss of life and property world- large. Aimed to be a resource for researchers and gradu-
wide. As of the writing of this volume, 2016 was the ate students, this book includes four parts of the climate
warmest year for globally averaged temperatures since extremes research: forcings, processes, regionality, and
records began. Additionally, the list of record‐breaking prediction.
extreme heat and heavy precipitations events is steadily Forcings – The need for effective and scientifically
growing. Driven by the global increase in extreme event defensible ways for the attribution analysis of climate
impacts, and increasing awareness about their causes, the extreme events was highlighted by the National
past decade has seen a significant surge of academic Academies of Sciences’ 2016 (NAS) report. The first
interest in analyses of weather and climate extremes. The important step toward extreme events attribution is
rapidly emerging science of extreme event attribution to establishing a sound understanding of na tural variability
that of climate change is uncovering the physical bases as that represents the different origins of climate forcing,
to how weather and climate fluctuations are intensifying which can modify a region’s climate p attern and extreme
in a warming climate; this new science will have potential weather. Examples included in this book are the changing
to improve upon the prediction of extreme weather and pattern of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO),
climate events. Arctic‐midlatitude interactions, role of anthropogenic
Examples of emerging theories include Arctic amplifi- aerosols, shifting dynamics of internal atmospheric
cation, which targets the effect of accelerated Arctic waves, and land‐surface processes.
warming on interfering the jet stream, tropical expansion, Processes – The NAS report also highlights the devel-
which describes the poleward shift of the thermally opment of appropriate ways to tease apart the interplay
driven circulation from the equator, the increasing refer- between meteorological and human‐made factors in the
ence to the Clausius‐Clapeyron relationship quantifying face of extreme events. Doing so requires intimate knowl-
the moisture‐holding capacity in the warming air, and edge of meteorological processes linking internal and
changing teleconnection processes originating from the external climate forcings to climate extremes. Presented in
tropical oceans. However, these mechanisms can contra- this book is a collection of six chapters on the various
dict each other or be overgeneralized. Controversial meteorological processes leading to certain climate
theories (such as recent debates regarding Arctic amplifi- extremes, including the timing in which human‐made
cation) can confuse the general public and other stake- effects on climate extremes emerge, recent changes in
holders who are not familiar with meteorology and temperature extremes over land, forced shifts in tropical
climate dynamics. Likewise, overgeneralized concepts precipitation, influences from various modes of tropical
such as global warming being a sole cause for the entirety intraseasonal variability, warming of the western Pacific
of observed climate extremes, do little to advance the Ocean, and the influence of atmospheric waves embed-
prediction of extreme events. It is the editors’ belief that ded in jet streams. The interplay between these processes
finding the varied pathways through which extreme events and forcings is complex, but it is possible to identify path-
happen provides the modus operandi toward improved ways in which climate extremes are modulated.
comprehension and prediction and will facilitate mitiga- Regionality – The impact of climate extremes on
tion of climate extremes. humanity and ecosystems occurs at the regional level. It
This book is designed to highlight the different path- is therefore important to understand the extent to which
ways whereby climate mechanisms engender extreme individual event types are connected to their respective
events as well as harness that information to improve locations and the processes through which they evolve.
extreme event prediction. Since the beginning of the 21st Examples of regional studies included are drought occur-
century, a great deal of research effort has been under- rences in Austria, East Africa, southwest Asia, North
taken toward uncovering the physical mechanisms related America (specifically California), and tornadoes in the
to the changing pattern of climate extremes. The goal of United States. Each of these regional extreme event types
this book is to be inclusive of the diverse, even contradic- has changed in a way that links to different oceanic,
tory, theories by (1) integrating the different views and atmospheric, and surface‐hydrological processes as
approaches in research of climate extremes and (2) tran- well as teleconnection sources. Of essence is the fact
sitioning the s ystematically acquired scientific knowledge that external forcing(s) of anthropogenic origin affects
xi
