Table Of ContentCLIMATE
EXTREMES
ANDTHEIR
IMPLICATIOFNOSR
IMPATCA NDR ISK
ASSESSEMNT
CLIMATE
EXTREMES
ANDTHEIR
IMPLICATIOFNOSR
IMPATCA NDR ISK
ASSESMSENT
Editbeyd
JANAS ILLMANN
SEBASTIASNI PPEL
SIMONER USSO
ELSEVIER
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Credits for the cover image (left to right, top to bottom):
1. Sebastian Schmitt, heavy summer rainfall in Volgograd, Russia (2009)
2. Francis W. Zwiers, Amphitrite Point Lighthouse, Uclulelet, BC, Canada
3. Sebastian Schmitt, soil cracks after a long and dry summer, West Russian Steppe (2009)
4. Sebastian Schmitt, burning crop residues on an agricultural field in West Russia (2009)
5. Francis W. Zwiers, Hamburg, City Centre, Germany
6. Francis W. Zwiers, Xiaoqikong Bridge, Libo Zhangjiang Scienic Area, Libo County, Guizhou, China
7. Francis W. Zwiers, Xijiang Village, Leishan County, Guizhou, China
8. Sebastian Schmitt, heavy summer rainfall in Volgograd, Russia (2009)
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Contributors
Michael Bahn
Department of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
Richard D. Bardgett
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Manchester,
Manchester, United Kingdom
Martin Bauch
Leibniz-Centre for the History and Culture of Eastern Europe, Leipzig, Germany
Tamara Ben-Ari
Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement,
Nogent-sur-Marne, France
Kate Boylan
Tonkin + Taylor International, Auckland, New Zealand
Alex J. Cannon
Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC,
Canada
Raphaël d’Andrimont
European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy
R.J. Dawson
School of Engineering, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom
Bart van den Hurk
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The Netherlands
Marijn van der Velde
European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy
Markus G. Donat
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain
Karlheinz Erb
Institute of Social Ecology, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna,
Vienna, Austria
Bapon (SHM) Fakhruddin
Tonkin + Taylor International; Science Committee Member, IRDR, Auckland,
New Zealand
Erich M. Fischer
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
A. Ford
School of Engineering, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom
xi
xii Contributors
Dorothea Frank
Max-Planck-Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
Carlos F. Gaitán
Benchmark Labs, San Francisco, CA, United States
Fabian Gans
Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
Antonio Gasparrini
Department of Public Health, Environments and Society; Centre for Statistical
Methodology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London,
United Kingdom
Debarati Guha-Sapir
Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, School of Public Health, Université
Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium
Benoit Guillod
Institute for Environmental Decisions; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science,
ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
D. Jaroszweski
School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham,
Birmingham, United Kingdom
Thomas Knoke
TUM School of Life Sciences Weihenstephan, Institute of Forest Management, Technical
University of Munich, Freising, Germany
Guido Kraemer
Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
Sandra Lavorel
Alpine Ecology Laboratory, UMR 5553, CNRS-Université Grenoble Alpes-Université
Savoie Mont-Blanc, Grenoble, France
Rémi Lecerf
European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy
Miguel D. Mahecha
Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
Marcel Van Oijen
Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Penicuik, United Kingdom
Brian C. O’Neill
University of Denver, Denver, CO, United States
Carola Paul
Department of Forest Economics and Sustainable Land Use Planning,
University of Göttingen; Centre of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use,
Göttingen, Germany
Claudio Piani
American University of Paris, Paris, France
Contributors xiii
M. Pregnolato
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
Anja Rammig
TUM School of Life Sciences Weihenstephan, Technical University of Munich,
Professorship for Land Surface-Atmosphere Interactions, Freising, Germany
Markus Reichstein
Max-Planck-Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
Rebekah Robertson
Tonkin + Taylor International, Auckland, New Zealand
Jürgen Scheffran
Institute of Geography, Research Group Climate Change and Security, Center for Earth
System Research and Sustainability, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Climate Analytics, Berlin; Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human-
Environment Systems (IRI THESys), Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin; Potsdam
Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Francesco Sera
Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and
Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
Jana Sillmann
Center for International Climate Research Oslo (CICERO), Oslo, Norway
Sebastian Sippel
Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research, Ås, Norway; ETH Zürich, Zürich,
Switzerland
Jeroen Smits
Global Data Lab, Nijmegen Center for Economics (NiCE), Institute for Management
Research, Radboud University, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
Claudia Tebaldi
Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, United States
Kirsten Thonicke
Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam,
Germany
Carolina Vera
Department of Atmospheric and Ocean Sciences, Faculty of Exact and Natural Sciences,
University of Buenos Aires; Center for Atmosphere and Ocean Research (CIMA),
CONICET-University of Buenos Aires; National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS),
Unidad Mixta Internacional (UMI), Argentinean-French Institute for Climate Studies
(IFAECI), Buenos Aires, Argentina
Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera
Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and
Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
xiv Contributors
Björn Vollan
Working Group for Sustainable Use of Natural Resources, School of Business and
Economics, Philipps-University Marburg, Marburg, Germany
Philip J. Ward
Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The
Netherlands
Michael F. Wehner
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States
Seth Westra
School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering, University of Adelaide, Adelaide,
Australia
Alec Wild
Tonkin + Taylor International, Auckland, New Zealand
Miguel A. Zavala
Grupo de Ecología y Restauración Forestal, Departamento de Ciencias de la Vida,
Universidad de Alcalá, Edificio de Ciencias, Madrid, Spain
Jakob Zscheischler
Climate and Environmental Physics; Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research,
University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Acknowledgments
If we want something we have never had, we must do something we have never
done before to produce [transformative] results.
Monica Sharma, Radical Transformational Leadership, 2017
The editors would like to acknowledge two interdisciplinary workshops
(supported by Future Earth (Berlin 2016) and the European Commission’s
Joint Research Centre (Ispra 2017)) that brought together the climate,
impact, and stakeholder communities, and that motivated and inspired
the present book. The editors further thank the World Climate Research
Programme (WCRP) under the Grand Challenge on Weather and Climate
Extremes and the Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR) program
for supporting work related to this book and for supporting important col-
laboration between the climate and disaster risk reduction communities.
Both programs, together with Future Earth, have significantly supported
the establishment of the global Knowledge Action Network on Emergent
Risks and Extreme Events (Risk KAN). The book is meant to contribute
to the Risk KAN activities and encourage future work.
Jana Sillmann acknowledges the Research Council of Norway for pro-
viding funding to various projects that enabled international and interdis-
ciplinary collaboration with many of the chapter authors and the editors.
Relevant projects are Interaction of climate extremes, air pollution and agro-
ecosystems (CiXPAG grant #244551), Physical and statistical analysis of climate
extremes in large datasets (ClimateXL grant #243953), Translating weather
extremes into the future – a case for Norway (TWEX grant #255037), and
Co-design of climate information to support financial decisions (ClimINVEST
grant #274250).
xv
CHAPTER 1
Climate extremes and their
implications for impact and risk
assessment: A short introduction
Jana Sillmanna, Sebastian Sippelb,c
aCenter for International Climate Research Oslo (CICERO), Oslo, Norway
bNorwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research, Ås, Norway
cETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
1 Introduction
Present and future climate extremes imply adverse impacts, and therefore
often pose severe societal challenges across a range of sectors, including, for
instance, agriculture, terrestrial and marine ecosystems, health, infrastruc-
ture, and might even exacerbate or trigger human conflict (IPCC, 2012).
About 90% of all disasters are caused by weather-related hazards, such as
floods, storms, extreme temperatures, and droughts (UNISDR, 2015). A
combination of these hazards, either sequentially such as a tropical cyclone
followed by a heatwave (Lin, 2019), or a concurrent compounding of haz-
ardous factors such as heat and drought (e.g., Mazdiyasni and AghaKouchak,
2015), can be even more disastrous than a single hazard. Moreover, not
only the interdependence between hazards but also interactions between
hazards, ecosystem or societal responses, and vulnerabilities can amplify the
risk (IPCC, 2012).
Extreme event impacts are increasingly recognized, methodologies to ad-
dress such impacts and the degree of our understanding and prediction capa-
bilities, however, vary widely among different sectors and disciplines. Moreover,
traditional climate extreme indices and large-scale multimodel intercompari-
sons that are used for future projections of extreme events and associated im-
pacts often fall short in capturing the full complexity of impact systems.
While at present most scientific studies are studying individual sectors
only, an improved exchange between sectors around methodologies in
terms of impact and risk assessment will yield a better understanding of
mechanisms and processes driving impacts and systemic risk.
Climate Extremes and Their Implications for Impact Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Inc.
and Risk Assessment All rights reserved.
https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-814895-2.00001-X 1
