Climate change impact and adaptation in agricultural systems

306 Pages·2014·5.698 MB·English

by  Fuhrer, J., Gregory, P. (Eds.)

Climate Change Impact and Adaptation in Agricultural Systems
CABI CLIMATE CHANGE SERIES
Climate change is a major environmental challenge to the world today, with signifi cant
threats to ecosystems, food security, water resources and economic stability overall. In order
to understand and research ways to alleviate the eff ects of climate change, scientists need
access to information that not only provides an overview of and background to the fi eld, but
also keeps them up to date with the latest research fi ndings.
Th is series addresses many topics relating to climate change, including strategies to de-
velop sustainable systems that minimize impact on climate and/or mitigate the eff ects of
human activity on climate change. Coverage will encompass all areas of environmental and
agricultural sciences. Aimed at researchers, upper level students and policy makers, titles in
the series provide international coverage of topics related to climate change, including both
a synthesis of facts and discussions of future research perspectives and possible solutions.
Titles Available
1. Climate Change and Crop Production
Edited by Matthew P. Reynolds
2. Crop Stress Management and Global Climate Change
Edited by José L. Araus and Gustavo A. Slafer
3. Temperature Adaptation in a Changing Climate: Nature at Risk
Edited by Kenneth B. Storey and Karen K. Tanino
4. Plant Genetic Resources and Climate Change
Edited by Michael Jackson, Brian Ford-Lloyd and Martin Parry
Climate Change Impact and Adaptation in
Agricultural Systems
Edited by
Jürg Fuhrer
Agroscope, Zurich, and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research,
University of Bern, Switzerland
Peter J. Gregory
East Malling Research, Kent, and School of Agriculture, Policy and
Development, University of Reading, UK
CABI is a trading name of CAB International
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Climate change impact and adaptation in agricultural systems / edited by Jürg Fuhrer,
Peter J. Gregory.
pages cm. -- (CABI climate change series ; 5)
ISBN 978-1-78064-289-5 (hbk : alk. paper) 1. Crops and climate. 2. Climatic changes. 3.
Agricultural systems. I. Fuhrer, Jürg. II. Gregory, P. J. III. C.A.B. International. IV. Series:
CABI climate change series ; 5.
S600.7.C54C659 2014
630.2'515--dc23
2014011559
ISBN-13: 978 1 78064 289 5

Commissioning editor: Vicki Bonham
Editorial assistant: Emma McCann
Production editor: Simon Hill
Typeset by Columns XML Ltd., Reading
Printed and bound in the UK by CPI Group.
Contents
Contributors vii
Foreword xi
Climate Change Impact and Adaptation in Agricultural Systems –
Introduction 1
Jürg Fuhrer and Peter J. Gregory
1 Climate Projections for 2050 7
Markku Rummukainen
2 Rainfed Intensive Crop Systems 17
Jørgen E. Olesen
3 Climate Sensitivity of Intensive Rice–Wheat Systems in Tropical Asia:
Focus on the Indo-Gangetic Plains 31
Anil Kumar Singh and Himanshu Pathak
4 Climate Change Challenges for Low-Input Cropping and Grazing
Systems – Australia 47
Steven Crimp, Mark Howden, Chris Stokes, Serena Schroeter and Brian Keating
5 Diversity in Organic and Agroecological Farming Systems for
Mitigation of Climate Change Impact, with Examples from Latin
America 69
Walter A.H. Rossing, Pablo Modernel and Pablo A. Tittonell
6 UK Fruit and Vegetable Production – Impacts of Climate Change and
Opportunities for Adaptation 88
Rosemary Collier and Mark A. Else
7 Intensive Livestock Systems for Dairy Cows 110
Robert J. Collier, Laun W. Hall and John F. Smith
8 Climate Change and Integrated Crop–Livestock Systems in
Temperate-Humid Regions of North and South America: Mitigation and
Adaptation 124
Alan J. Franzluebbers
v
vi Contents
9 Land Managed for Multiple Services 140
Richard Aspinall
10 Adaptation of Mixed Crop–Livestock Systems in Asia 155
Fujiang Hou
11 Enhancing Climate Resilience of Cropping Systems 167
Heidi Webber, Helena Kahiluoto, Reimund Rötter and Frank Ewert
12 Shaping Sustainable Intensive Production Systems: Improved Crops
and Cropping Systems in the Developing World 186
Clare Stirling, Jon Hellin, Jill Cairns, Elan Silverblatt-Buser, Tadele Tefera, Henry
Ngugi, Sika Gbegbelegbe, Kindie Tesfaye, Uran Chung, Kai Sonder, Rachael A. Cox,
Nele Verhulst, Bram Govaerts, Phillip Alderman and Matthew Reynolds
13 Th e Role of Modelling in Adapting and Building the Climate Resilience
of Cropping Systems 204
Helena Kahiluoto, Reimund Rötter, Heidi Webber and Frank Ewert
14 Agroforestry Solutions for Buff ering Climate Variability and Adapting
to Change 216
Meine van Noordwijk, Jules Bayala, Kurniatun Hairiah, Betha Lusiana, Catherine
Muthuri, Ni’matul Khasanah and Rachmat Mulia
15 Channelling the Future? Th e Use of Seasonal Climate Forecasts in
Climate Adaptation 233
Lauren Rickards, Mark Howden and Steve Crimp
16 Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change: New Approaches to
Knowledge and Learning 253
Julie Ingram
17 What are the Factors that Dictate the Choice of Coping Strategies for
Extreme Climate Events? Th e Case of Farmers in the Nile Basin of
Ethiopia 271
Temesgen Tadesse Deressa
Index 281
Contributors
Phillip Alderman, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Apdo.
Postal 6-641, 06600 Mexico, DF, Mexico. E-mail: [email protected]
Richard Aspinall, James Hutton Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen, AB15 8QH, UK.
E-mail: [email protected]
Jules Bayala, World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), JL. CIFOR, Situ Gede, PO Box 161,
Bogor 16001, Indonesia. E-mail: [email protected]
Jill Cairns, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), PO Box MP
163, Mount Pleasant, Harare, Zimbabwe. E-mail: [email protected]
Uran Chung, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Apdo.
Postal 6-641, 06600 Mexico, DF, Mexico. E-mail: [email protected]
Robert J. Collier, University of Arizona, Department of Animal Science, Shantz Building
236, PO Box 210038, Tucson, AZ 85721-0038, USA. E-mail: [email protected]
Rosemary Collier, Warwick Crop Centre, School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick,
Wellesbourne, Warwick CV35 9EF, UK. E-mail: [email protected]
Rachael A. Cox, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Apdo.
Postal 6-641, 06600 Mexico, DF, Mexico. E-mail: [email protected]
Steven Crimp, CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship and Ecosystem Sciences, Canberra,
ACT 2601, Australia. E-mail: [email protected]
Temesgen Tadesse Deressa, Guest Scholar, Africa Growth Initiative, Global Economy and
Development, Brookings Institute, 1775 Massachusetts Ave., NW, Washington, DC
20036, USA. E-mail: [email protected]
Mark A. Else, East Malling Research, New Road, East Malling, Kent ME19 6BJ, UK. E-mail:
[email protected]
Frank Ewert, University of Bonn, Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation
(INRES), Crop Science Group, Katzenburgweg 5, D-53115 Bonn, Germany. E-mail:
[email protected]
Alan J. Franzluebbers, USDA – Agricultural Research Service, 3218 Williams Hall, NCSU
Campus, Box 7619, Raleigh, NC 27695, USA. E-mail: [email protected]
Jürg Fuhrer, Climate Group/Air Pollution, Agroscope, Reckenholzstrasse 191, CH-8046
Zurich, Switzerland, and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of
Bern, Zähringerstrasse 25, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland. E-mail: juerg.fuhrer@agroscope.
admin.ch
vii
viii Contributors
Sika Gbegbelegbe, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), CRAF
House, United Nations Avenue, Gigiri PO Box 1041, Village Market-00621, Nairobi,
Kenya. E-mail: [email protected]
Bram Govaerts, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Apdo.
Postal 6-641, 06600 Mexico, DF, Mexico. E-mail: [email protected]
Peter J. Gregory, East Malling Research, New Road, East Malling, Kent, ME19 6BJ, and
School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading, Reading, RG6
6AR, UK. E-mail: [email protected]
Kurniatun Hairiah, Brawijaya University, Jl. Veteran, Malang 65145, Indonesia. E-mail:
[email protected]
Laun W. Hall, University of Arizona, Department of Animal Science, Shantz Building 236,
PO Box 210038, Tucson, AZ 85721-0038, USA. E-mail: [email protected]
Jon Hellin, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Apdo. Postal
6-641, 06600 Mexico, DF, Mexico. E-mail: [email protected]
Fujiang Hou, State Key Laboratory of Grassland Agro-Ecosystem, China College of Pastoral
Agriculture Science and Technology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730020, Gansu,
China. E-mail: cyhoufj @lzu.edu.cn
Mark Howden, CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship and Ecosystem Sciences, Canberra,
ACT 2601, Australia. E-mail: [email protected]
Julie Ingram, Countryside and Community Research Institute, University of
Gloucestershire, Gloucester, Gloucestershire, GL2 9HW, UK. E-mail: [email protected]
Helena Kahiluoto, MTT Agrifood Research Finland, Plant Production Research,
Lönnrotinkatu 5, 50100 Mikkeli, Finland. E-mail: [email protected]
Brian Keating, CSIRO Sustainable Agriculture Flagship, Ecosciences Precinct, Brisbane
QLD 4001, Australia. E-mail: [email protected]
Ni’matul Khasanah, World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), JL. CIFOR, Situ Gede, PO Box
161, Bogor 16001, Indonesia. E-mail: [email protected]
Betha Lusiana, World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), JL. CIFOR, Situ Gede, PO Box 161,
Bogor 16001, Indonesia. E-mail: [email protected]
Pablo Modernel, Farming Systems Ecology, Wageningen University, 6700 AN Wageningen,
Th e Netherlands, and Facultad Agronomía, Universidad de la República, CP 12900,
Montevideo, Uruguay. E-mail: pablo.modernelhristoff @wur.nl
Rachmat Mulia, World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), JL. CIFOR, Situ Gede, PO Box 161,
Bogor 16001, Indonesia. E-mail: [email protected]
Catherine Muthuri, World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), JL. CIFOR, Situ Gede, PO Box
161, Bogor 16001, Indonesia. E-mail: [email protected]
Henry Ngugi, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Apdo.
Postal 6-641, 06600 Mexico, DF, Mexico. E-mail: [email protected]
Jørgen E. Olesen, Aarhus University, Department of Agroecology, DK-8830 Tjele,
Denmark. E-mail: [email protected]
Himanshu Pathak, Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture,
Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi 110 012, India. E-mail: hpathak.iari@
gmail.com
Matthew Reynolds, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT),
Apdo. Postal 6-641, 06600 Mexico, DF, Mexico. E-mail: [email protected]
Lauren Rickards, Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, University of Melbourne,
Southern Annex, Ground Floor Alice Hoy Building (Blg 162) Monash Road, Parkville,
Victoria 3010, Australia. E-mail: [email protected]
Walter A.H. Rossing, Farming Systems Ecology, Wageningen University, 6700 AN
Wageningen, Th e Netherlands. E-mail: [email protected]
Reimund Rötter, MTT Agrifood Research Finland, Plant Production Research,
Lönnrotinkatu 5, 50100 Mikkeli, Finland. E-mail: [email protected]
Contributors ix
Markku Rummukainen, Centre for Environmental and Climate Research, Lund University,
Sölvegatan 37, SE-223 63 Lund, Sweden. E-mail: [email protected]
Serena Schroeter, CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship, Highett VIC 3190, Australia.
E-mail: [email protected]
Elan Silverblatt-Buser, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT),
Apdo. Postal 6-641, 06600 Mexico, DF, Mexico. E-mail: [email protected]
Anil Kumar Singh, RVS Agricultural University, Gwalior 474 002, India. E-mail: aksingh.
[email protected]
John F. Smith (deceased), University of Arizona, Department of Animal Science, Shantz
Building 236, PO Box 210038, Tucson, AZ 85721-0038, USA.
Kai Sonder, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Apdo. Postal
6-641, 06600 Mexico, DF, Mexico. E-mail: [email protected]
Clare Stirling, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Ynys
Mon, Wales, LL74 8NS, UK, E-mail: [email protected]
Chris Stokes, CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship and Ecosystem Sciences, Aitkenvale
QLD 4814, Australia. E-mail: [email protected]
Tadele Tefera, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), CRAF
House, United Nations Avenue, Gigiri PO Box 1041, Village Market-00621, Nairobi,
Kenya. E-mail: [email protected]
Kindie Tesfaye, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT), PO Box
5689, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. E-mail: [email protected]
Pablo A. Tittonell, Farming Systems Ecology, Wageningen University, 6700 AN
Wageningen, Th e Netherlands. E-mail: [email protected]
Meine van Noordwijk, World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), JL. CIFOR, Situ Gede, PO Box
161, Bogor 16001, Indonesia. E-mail: [email protected]
Nele Verhulst, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Apdo.
Postal 6-641, 06600 Mexico, DF, Mexico. E-mail: [email protected]
Heidi Webber, University of Bonn, Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation
(INRES), Crop Science Group, Katzenburgweg 5, D-53115 Bonn, Germany. E-mail:
[email protected]