Table Of ContentCover photo: Coconut palms and forest vegetation on La Digue
Island, Seychelles. Forests on small islands may be particularly
susceptible to some predicted but uncertain effects of climate change,
including rise in sea level and increased frequency and intensity of
storms.
FAO
Climate change, FORES!
(TRY
PAPER
and
forests
126
forest management
An
overview
by
William M. Ciesla
Forest Protection Officer
FAO Forest Resources Division
Food
and
Agriculture
Organization
of
the
United
Nations
The designations employedandthe presentation ofmaterial inthis
publication do not implythe expression of anyopinion whatsoever
on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United
Nations concerning the legal status of anycountry, territory, city or
area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its
frontiers or boundaries.
M-08
ISBN
92-5-103664-0
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a
retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic,
mechanical, photocopying or otherwise, without the prior permission of the
copyright owner. Applications for such permission, with a statement of the
purpose and extent of the reproduction, should be addressed to the Director,
Publications Division, Food and Agriculture Organization ofthe United Nations,
Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, 00100 Rome,
Italy.
FAO 1995
FOREWORD
Changes in the world's climate, due to increases in the
concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the
Earth's atmosphere, have the potential to significantly affect forests
and the practice of forestry. The probability of climate change is
one of today's leading environmental concerns. The issue is
complex and filled with uncertainties. Information available on the
subject is often confusing and conflicting.
Climate is the key factor which determines the distribution of
vegetation. The relation of climate change to the conservation and
development of the world's forests is therefore, an important issue
to consider. Forests can contribute to the greenhouse effect, they
can also be affected by climate change and they offer opportunities
to mitigate its effects.
It is important for foresters to have an understanding of the climate
change issue and its implications. This document, which is
presented in question and answer format, is designed to serve as a
general reference on the subject of climate change and forests. The
answers are based on the current world's literature including the
most recent analyses by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC). It is hoped that forest planners and managers will
find it useful in the preparation and implementation of their
programmes and in providing advice to decision makers.
J. P. Lanly, Director
Forest Resources Division
Forestry Department
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The helpful and constructive comments provided by a large number
of people who reviewed this document is gratefully acknowledged.
External reviews were kindly provided by M. Fosberg, USDA Forest
US USA
Service, Washington DC, S. Brown, EPA, Corvalis, Oregon,
and M. Hosny El Lakany, Desert Development Center, American
University, Cairo, Egypt.
Internal (FAO) reviews were provided by W.G. Sombroek, Director,
Lands and Water Development Division and Chairman,
Interdepartmental Working Group on Climate Change; R. Gommes,
Coordinator, Agrometeorology Group, Remote Sensing Centre; J.P.
Lanly, Director, Forest Resources Division; C. Palmberg-Lerche,
Chief, Forest Resources Development Service; J. Ball, Senior Forest
Plantations Officer, S. Braatz, Agroforestry and Land Use Officer; P.
Vantomme, Forest Management Officer; D. Dykstra, Forest
Harvesting Officer (Presently with CIFOR, Bogor, Indonesia); M.
Trossero, Wood Based Energy Officer; C. Chandrasekharan, Non-
Wood Forest Products Officer and D. Suparmo, Advisor, Tropical
Forests Action Programme.
Special thanks are given to J.B. Harrington, formerly of the
Petawawa National Forestry Institute, Ontario, Canada, for his
assistance with the technical editing of the manuscript and F. Monti,
who
FAO, Forestry Department Librarian, assisted in accessing the
massive literature available on climate change.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
FOREWORD
i
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
ii
TABLE OF CONTENTS
iii
LIST OF ACRONYMS ix
LIST OF TABLES
xii
LIST OF BOXES
xiii
LIST OF FIGURES xiv
INTRODUCTION
1
CHAPTER 1 - THE EARTH'S CLIMATE - A DYNAMIC ENTITY 4
HOWARE WEATHER AND CLIMATE DEFINED? 4
/.
TO WHATEXTENTHAS THEEARTH'S CLIMATE CHANGED
2.
DURING THE COURSE OF GEOLOGIC HISTORY? 4
WHAT CHANGES HAVE OCCURRED IN THE EARTH'S
3.
CLIMATE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF RECORDED HUMAN
HISTORY? 5
4. WHA T FACTORS CAN CAUSE CHANGES IN THE EARTH'S
CLIMATE? 9
CHAPTER 2 - THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT 15
5. WHAT IS THE "GREENHOUSEEFFECT" AND HOWDOES IT
INFLUENCE THE EARTH'S CLIMATE? 15
iv
WHICH GASESAPE CONSIDERED TO BE GHGSAND WHA T
6.
ARE THE SOURCES OF THESE GASES? 18
7. WHAT IS THE SIGNIFICANCE OF HUMAN SOURCES OF
GHGS? 22
DO ALL GHGS HAVEAN EQUAL WARMING EFFECT? 22
8.
WHAT EVIDENCE EXISTS TO SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT
9.
GHG LEVELS IN THE A TMOSPHEREARE INCREASING? 23
WHICH COUNTRIES PRESENTLY MAKE THE GREATEST
10.
CONTRIBUTION TO ELEVA TED LEVELS OF GHGS? 25
. .
HOW
CAN AEROSOLS COUNTERACT THE EFFECTS OF
//.
GHGS 25
CHAPTER 3 - PREDICTED CHANGES IN THE EARTH'S
CLIMATE AND EXPECTED EFFECTS 27
12. IN GENERAL, WHAT ARE THE PREDICTED EFFECTS OF
INCREASED LEVELS OF GHGS ON THE EARTH'S
CLIMATE? 27
13. HOW ARE CHANGES IN THE EARTH'S CLIMATE
PREDICTED? 27
HOW
RELIABLE ARE PRESENT PREDICTIONS OF CLIMA TE
14.
CHANGE? 30
15. WHAT CHANGES IN CLIMATE ARE PREDICTED WITH A
DOUBLING OF C0 FROM PRE-INDUSTR1AL REVOLUTION
2
LEVELS? 31
16. IS THE CLIMATE OF SOME REGIONS OF THE WORLD
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A GREATER DEGREE THAN
OTHERS? 33
17. WHAT CHANGES IN THE LEVEL OF THE OCEANS ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE? 34
HOW
18. WILL PLANTS, INCLUDING TREES, BE INFLUENCED
BY CHANGES IN THE LEVELS OF GHGs IN THE EARTH'S
ATMOSPHERE AND RESULTANT CHANGES IN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION? 34
HOW
19. MIGHT SOILS BE AFFECTED BY CHANGES IN
CLIMATE? 37
20. IS THERE ANY EVIDENCE WHICH INDICATES THAT
CLIMA TECHANGESMA YHA VEALREADYOCCURRED DUE
TO INCREASES IN GHG LEVELS? 38
CHAPTER 4 - THE GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE 40
21. WHAT PROCESSES EXIST FOR THE EXCHANGE OF
CARBONBETWEEN THEATMOSPHERE, THE OCEANSAND
THE LAND? 40
22. HOWARE EXCHANGES OF CARBON EXPRESSED? 41
. .
23. WHAT IS THE PRESENT LEVEL OF CARBON EXCHANGE
BETWEEN THE A TMOSPHERE, THE OCEANS AND THE
LAND? 45
CHAPTER 5 - TREES AND FORESTS AS SOURCES AND SINKS OF
CARBON 45
24. HOW MUCH OF THE EARTH'S SURFACE IS PRESENTLY
COVERED BY FORESTS AND OTHER WOODY
VEGETATION? 45
25. WHAT PROCESSES OCCUR IN TREES AND FORESTS
WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO CHANGES IN LEVELS OF GHGS IN
THE EARTH'S ATMOSPHERE? 45
26. HOW MUCH CARBON IS RELEASED AND HOW MUCH IS
TAKEN UP ANNUALLY BY FORESTS? 47
27. DO DIFFERENT FOREST ECOSYSTEMS VARY IN THEIR
CAPACITY TO ABSORB AND STORE CARBON? 47
28. DO TREES AND FORESTS REMOVE CARBON FROM THE
EARTH'S ATMOSPHERE AT DIFFERENT RATES DURING
DIFFERENT STAGES IN THEIR LIVES? 49
29. WHICH HUMAN ACTIVITIES IN FORESTS AND
WOODLANDS CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASESIN THELEVELS
OF GHGS? 53
30. WHA TARE THE CURRENT RA TES OF DEFORESTA TION IN
THE WORLD'S FORESTS? 55
HOW ARE FOREST SOILS AFFECTED BY
31.
DEFORESTATION? 56
CHAPTERS- POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON
FORESTS 57
32. WHA T CHANGES IN GROWTH AND YIELD OF TREES AND
FORESTS CAN BE EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF CLIMATE
CHANGE? 57
33. WHAT CHANGES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE NATURAL
RANGES OF TREE SPECIES AND PLANT COMMUNITIES
DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE? 58
34. WHAT IS THE LIKELIHOOD THAT CLIMATE CHANGE
COULD THREATEN SOME SPECIES OR PLANT
COMMUNITIES WITH EXTINCTION? 64
HOW
35. MIGHT CLIMATE CHANGE INFLUENCE THE
INCIDENCE AND INTENSITY OF WILDFIRES? 66
