Table Of ContentClimate Change and Economic Development
Other books by Sardar M.N. Islam
Sardar M.N. Islam and Christine Mak (authors)
NORMATIVE HEALTH ECONOMICS
A New Pragmatic Approach to Cost Benefit Analysis, Mathematical Models
and Applications
M. Rusydi and Sardar M.N. Islam (authors)
QUANTITATIVE EXCHANGE RATE ECONOMICS IN DEVELOPING
COUNTRIES
A New Pragmatic Decision Making Approach
Climate Change and
Economic Development
SEA Regional Modelling and Analysis
Jamie Sanderson and Sardar M.N. Islam
© Jamie Sanderson and Sardar M.N. Islam 2007
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2007 978-0-230-54279-2
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Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication
may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages.
The authors have asserted their rights to be identified as the authors of this
work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
First published 2007 by
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ISBN 978-1-349-36034-5 ISBN 978-0-230-59012-0 (eBook)
DOI 10.1057/9780230590120
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10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
16 15 14 13 12 11 10 09 08 07
For Grace and Max
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Contents
List of Tables xiii
List of Figures xv
Acknowledgement and Sources of Some Materials xvii
Summary and Preface xix
Foreword xxi
List of Abbreviations xxiii
Chapter 1 Introduction: Issues and Developments in
Climate Change 1
1.1 Introduction 1
1.2 A brief review of the science and history of climate
change 2
1.2.1 The discovery of the greenhouse 2
1.2.2 The international response to climate change 3
1.2.3 The outcome from Kyoto 6
1.3 The economics of climate change 10
1.3.1 Problems presented by climate change for
economics 11
1.4 Climate change policy options: mitigation and
adaptation 12
1.4.1 Mitigation and adaptation: definitions and
contrasts 12
1.4.2 Reasons for the relative paucity of climate change
adaptation research 13
1.5 Objectives of this book 15
1.6 Contributions of this book 16
1.7 The structure of this book 17
Chapter 2 Issues in Climate Change for South East Asia 21
2.1 Introduction 21
2.2 South East Asia 22
2.2.1 Recent economic and social development in
South East Asia 23
2.2.2 Recent economic reform and growth 25
vii
viii Contents
2.2.3 The environment as an issue in South East Asia 26
2.2.3.1 South East Asia’s activities in international
environmental law 28
2.2.4 Climate change activities in South East Asia 29
2.3 Greenhouse gas emissions of South East Asia 36
2.3.1 The contribution of deforestation to climate
change 36
2.3.2 Energy use in South East Asia as a contributor to
climate change 37
2.3.3 Overall structure of emissions 37
2.3.4 South East Asia’s place in the global greenhouse 38
2.3.5 Economic development and climate change
emissions 40
2.4 Conclusion 44
Chapter 3 Climate Change Impact Estimates for South
East Asia 47
3.1 Introduction 47
3.2 Aggregate climate change impact estimation methods
and results 47
3.2.1 The methodology 47
3.2.2 Other aggregate impact estimates 49
3.3 The likely impacts of climate change on South East
Asia 52
3.4 Sectoral climate change impact estimates for South
East Asia 54
3.4.1 Sea level rise 54
3.4.1.1 Sea level rise studies for South East Asia 55
3.4.1.2 An impact estimate for sea level rise for South
East Asia 56
3.4.2 Agriculture 57
3.4.2.1 An impact estimate for agriculture in South
East Asia 60
3.4.3 Impacts of climate change on health 60
3.4.4 Human settlements and ecosystems 61
3.4.4.1 Human settlement 61
3.4.4.2 Ecosystem loss 62
3.4.5 Vulnerability to natural disasters 63
3.4.6 Other vulnerable sectors 64
Contents ix
3.5 Overall economic impact of climate change on South
East Asia 65
3.5.1 Comparison with other results 65
3.6 Conclusion 66
Chapter 4 Model Forecasting the Future Scenarios
for Climate Change and Economic Growth for South
East Asia 67
4.1 Introduction 67
4.2 Integrated assessment models of climate change 67
4.2.1 Major modelling issues 70
4.2.1.1 Data limitations 70
4.2.1.2 Intertemporal issues 71
4.3 The choice of model 73
4.3.1 The difference between DICE and SEADICE 73
4.3.2 Arguments in favour of the DICE model 74
4.3.3 Arguments against the DICE model 75
4.3.4 The model solution process – the choice between
GAMS and Excel 76
4.4 Model structure 77
4.4.1 Objective function 78
4.4.2 Constraints 79
4.4.3 Climate equations 80
4.5 Model results 86
4.5.1 SEADICE results for five model runs 86
4.5.1.1 Results for climate and environmental
variables 88
4.5.1.2 Results for the economic variables 91
4.6 Optimistic and pessimistic scenarios 97
4.7 Conclusion 99
Appendix 4.A SEADICE (South East Asia DICE) Model 100
Appendix 4.B SEADICE Results 104
Chapter 5 Theoretical Discussion of Adaptation to
Climate Change and Application To The Seadice Model 107
5.1 Introduction 107
5.2 General adaptation concepts 107
5.2.1 Scientific concepts of adaptation 108
5.2.2 Economic concepts of adaptation 109
