Climate Change and Armed Conflict: Hot and Cold Wars

194 Pages·2009·5.56 MB·English

by  James R. Lee

Climate Change and Armed Conflict
This book examines the evolution of the relationship between climate change
and conflict, and attempts to visualize future trends.
Owing to the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, current
trends in climate change will not appreciably alter over the next half century
even if drastic action is taken now. Changes in climate will produce unique types
and modes of conflict, redefine the value of important resources, and create new
challenges to maintaining social order and stability. This book examines the con-
sequences of climate change, and argues that it has and will produce two types
of different types of conflict: “Cold Wars” and “Hot Wars”. Cold Wars will
occur in northern and southern latitudes as warming draws countries into pos-
sible conflict due to expanding interests in exploiting new resources and territ-
ories (inter- state conflict). Hot Wars will break out around the Equator as
warming expands and intensifies dry areas, increasing competition for scarce
resources (intra-s tate conflict). Conflict is not inevitable, but it will also be a con-
sequence of how states, international institutions and people react to changes in
climate. Climate change and conflict have always shaped human experiences.
This book lays out the parameters of the relationship, shows its history, and fore-
casts its trends, offering future conditions and opportunities for changing the his-
torical path we are on.
This book will be of great interest for students of climate change and environ-
mental security, peace and conflict studies, and IR/security studies in general.
James R. Lee is a Professor in the School of International Service, American
University, Washington, DC, and Associate Director of American University’s
Center for Teaching Excellence. He is author of several books on international
relations, including, most recently, Exploring the Gaps: Vital Links Between
Trade, Environment and Culture (2000).
Routledge studies in peace and conflict resolution
Series editors: Tom Woodhouse and Oliver Ramsbotham
University of Bradford
Peace and Security in the Postmodern World
The OSCE and conflict resolution
Dennis J.D. Sandole
Truth Recovery and Justice after Conflict
Managing violent pasts
Marie Breen Smyth
Peace in International Relations
Oliver P. Richmond
Social Capital and Peace-B uilding
Creating and resolving conflict with trust and social networks
Edited by Michaelene Cox
Business, Conflict Resolution and Peacebuilding
Contributions from the private sector to address violent conflict
Derek Sweetman
Creativity and Conflict Resolution
Alternative pathways to peace
Tatsushi Arai
Climate Change and Armed Conflict
Hot and Cold Wars
James R. Lee
Climate Change and Armed
Conflict
Hot and Cold Wars
James R. Lee
First published 2009

by Routledge
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This edition published in the Taylor & Francis e-Library, 2009.
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© 2009 James R. Lee
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or
utilized in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now
known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in
any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing
from the publishers.
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
A catalog record for this book has been requested
ISBN 0-203-87220-7 Master e-book ISBN
ISBN10: 0-415-77869-7 (hbk)
ISBN10: 0-203-87220-7 (ebk)
ISBN13: 978-0-415-77869-5 (hbk)
ISBN13: 978-0-203-87220-8 (ebk)
For Linda

Contents
List of maps ix
List of tables x
Acknowledgments xi
1 The Climate Change War 1
Climate change will do more than just raise the
temperature 3
The expanding Equatorial Tension Belt and the emerging Polar
Tension Belt 7
Hot Wars and Cold Wars 14
Optimists and pessimists, realists and idealists 16
2 A brief history of climate change and conflict 24
Holocene Warming Period 25
Medieval Climate Optimum 34
Little Ice Age 43
Anthropogene Warming Period 51
The evolving role of climate change and conflict in history 60
3 Climate change and conflict trends 66
The evidence for and forecasts of climate change 67
Extrapolating conflict trends 82
Regions for future climate change and conflict 94
Climate change, conflict regions, and lessons 115
4 Scenarios of climate change and conflict 117
Scenarios of climate change and conflict 117
Comparing future cases 146
Climate Change and Armed Conflict
This book examines the evolution of the relationship between climate change
and conflict, and attempts to visualize future trends.
Owing to the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, current
trends in climate change will not appreciably alter over the next half century
even if drastic action is taken now. Changes in climate will produce unique types
and modes of conflict, redefine the value of important resources, and create new
challenges to maintaining social order and stability. This book examines the con-
sequences of climate change, and argues that it has and will produce two types
of different types of conflict: “Cold Wars” and “Hot Wars”. Cold Wars will
occur in northern and southern latitudes as warming draws countries into pos-
sible conflict due to expanding interests in exploiting new resources and territ-
ories (inter- state conflict). Hot Wars will break out around the Equator as
warming expands and intensifies dry areas, increasing competition for scarce
resources (intra-s tate conflict). Conflict is not inevitable, but it will also be a con-
sequence of how states, international institutions and people react to changes in
climate. Climate change and conflict have always shaped human experiences.
This book lays out the parameters of the relationship, shows its history, and fore-
casts its trends, offering future conditions and opportunities for changing the his-
torical path we are on.
This book will be of great interest for students of climate change and environ-
mental security, peace and conflict studies, and IR/security studies in general.
James R. Lee is a Professor in the School of International Service, American
University, Washington, DC, and Associate Director of American University’s
Center for Teaching Excellence. He is author of several books on international
relations, including, most recently, Exploring the Gaps: Vital Links Between
Trade, Environment and Culture (2000).
viii Contents
5 Climate change, conflict, and political choices 148
The politics and geopolitics of climate change and conflict 148
Learning to live with climate change and conflict 160
Five conclusions 165
Bibliography 171
Index 178