Ciba Foundation Symposium 210 - Precision Agriculture: Spatial and Temporal Variability of Environmental Quality

258 Pages·10.214 MB·English

PRECISION
AGRICULTURE:
SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL
VARIABILITY OF
ENVIRONMENTAL
QUALITY
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Ciba Foundation Symposium 210
PRECISION
AGRICULTURE:
SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL
VARIABILITY OF
ENVIRONMENTAL
QUALITY
1997
JOHN WILEY & SONS
Chichester . New York . Weinheim . Brisbane . Singapore . Toronto
Copyright 0 Ciba Foundation 1997
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Ciba Foundation Symposium 210
viii+251 pages, 83 figures, 16 tables
Libray of Congress Ca~loging-in-PublicatioDn ata
Precision agriculture : spatial and temporal variability of
environmental quality.
p. cm. - (Ciba Foundation symposium ;2 10)
“Editors: JohnV Lake, Gregory R. Bock (organizers) and Jamie A.
Goode”-Contents p.
Papers from a symposium held Jan. 21-23,1997, inWageningen,The
Netherlands.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-471-97455-2 (alk. paper)
1. Precision farming-Congresses. I. Lake, J.V 11. Bock,
Gregory. 111. Goode, Jamie. IV Series.
S494.5T73P74 1997
631-dc21 97-25663
CIP
British Libmry Cataloguing in Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
ISBN 0 471 97455 2
Typeset in 10/12pt Garamond by DobbieTypesetting Limited, Tavistock, Devon.
Printed and bound in Great Britain by Biddles Ltd, Guildford and King’s Lynn.
This book is printed on acid-free paper responsibly manufactured from sustainable forestation,
for which at least two trees are planted for each one used for paper production.
Contents
Jjmposium on Precision agriculture: spatialand temporal variability oJenvironmentalquali@,h eld in
collaboration with the European EnvironmentalR esearch Organisation, atthe Hotel Nolin ‘t Bosch,
Wageningen,The Netherlands on 2 1-23 January 1997
Tbiss_ymposiumw as basedon aproposalb_yA lfredStein and Johan Bouma
Editors: John KLake, Gregory R. Bock (Organixers) and Jamie A. Goode
R. Rabbinge Chairman’s introduction 1
J. Bouma Precision agriculture: introduction to the spatial and temporal variability
of environmental quality 5
Discussion 14
M.Voltz Spatial variability of soil moisture regimes at different scales: implications
in the context of precision agriculture 18
Discussion 30
I?. MonestieqW. Meiring, P. D. Sampson and P. Guttorp Modelling non-
stationary spatial covariance structure from space -time monitoring data 38
Discussion 48
P. M. Groffman Ecological constraints on the ability of precision agriculture to
improve the environmental performance of agricultural production systems 52
Discussion 6 4
General discussion I 68
V. Barnett, S. Landau, J. J. Colls, J. Craigon, R. A. C. Mitchell and R.W. Payne
Predicting wheat yields: the search for valid and precise models 79
Discussion 92
D. J. Mulla Geostatistics, remote sensing and precision farming 100
Discussion 115
A. Stein, M. R. Hoosbeek and G. Sterk Space-time statistics for decision support
to smart farming 120
Discussion 13 0
V
vi CONTENTS
General discussion I1 134
A. B. McBratney, B. M.Whelan and T. M. Shatar Variability and uncertainty in
spatial, temporal and spatiotemporal crop-yield and related data 141
S. K. Thompson Spatial sampling 161
Discussion 169
A. K. Bregt GIS support for precision agriculture: problems and possibilities 173
Discussion 179
M. J. Kropff, J. Wallinga and L. A. I?. Lotz Modelling for precision weed
management 182
Discussion 20 0
General discussion I11 205
P. A. Burrough and J. Swindell Optimal mapping of site-specific multivariate soil
properties 208
Discussion 219
J. J. G6mez-Hernindez Uncertainty in hydrogeological modelling 221
Discussion 226
J. Bouma General reflections 231
Discussion 235
R. Rabbinge Summary 242
Index of contributors 244
Subject index 245
Participants
V. Barnett Department of Mathematics, University of Nottingham, University Park,
Nottingham NG7 2RD, UK
J. Bouma Department of Soil Science and Geology, PO Box 37, Wageningen
Agricultural University, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands
I. Braud Laboratoire $Etude desTransferts en Hydrologie et Environmement,
C.N.R.S., UMR 5564, BP 53, F-38041, Grenoble 9, France
A. K. Bregt DLO Winand Staring Centre for Integrated Land, Soil and Water
Research (SC-DLO), PO Box 125,6700 AC Wageningen, The Netherlands
I?. A. Burrough Netherlands Centre for Geoecology (ICG), Department of Physical
Geography, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, PO Box 80115,3508 TC Utrecht,The
Netherlands
D. Goense Department of Agrotechnology and Physics, Wageningen Agricultural
University, Agrotechnion Bomenweg 4, NL-6703 HD Wageningen, The
Netherlands
J. J. Gbmez-Hernandez Department of Hydraulics and Environmental
Engineering, Universidad Politkcnica devalencia, 46071 Valencia, Spain
P. M. Groffman Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Box AB, Millbrook, NY 12545,
USA
G. Hudson Macaulay Land Use Research Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen,
AB15 8QH, UK
M. J. Kropff Department of Theoretical Production Ecology, Wageningen
Agricultural University, PO Box 430,6700 AK Wageningen, The Netherlands
A. B. McBratney Department of Agricultural Chemistry and Soil Science,
Australian Centre for Precision Agriculture, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW
2006, Australia
vii
viii PARTICIPANTS
J. L. Meshalkina Faculty of Soil Science, Moscow State University, Moscow 119899,
Russia
P. Monestiez Unitt de Biomttrie, INRA, Domaine Saint Paul, Site Agroparc, 84914
Avignon, Cedex 9, France
D. J. Mulla Department of Soi1,Water and Climate, Borlaug Hall, University of
Minnesota, 1991 Upper Buford Circle, St. Paul, MN 55108-6028, USA
R. Rabbinge (Chairman) Scientific Council for Government Policy, 2 Plein 1813, PO
Box 20004,2500 EAThe Hague,The Netherlands
D. Rasch Department of Mathematics, Agricultural University, Dreijenlaan 4,6703
HA Wageningen,The Netherlands
P. Robert Department of Soil, Water and Climate, Borlaug Hall, University of
Minnesota, 1991 Upper Buford Circle, St. Paul, MN 55108-6028, USA
S. E. Simmelsgaard Research Centre Foulum, PO Box 23, DIG8830 Tjele,
Denmark
J.V. Stafford Silsoe Research Institute, Wrest Park, Silsoe, Bedford MK45 4HS, UIC
A. Stein Department of Soil Science and Geology, PO Box 37, Wageningen
Agricultural University, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands
H. Su (Ciba Foundation Bursad Crop and Disease Management, IACR Rothamsted,
Harpenden, Hertfordshire AL5 2 JQ UK
S. K. Thompson Department of Statistics, Pennsylvania State University,
326 Thomas Building, University Park, PA 16802-2111, USA
M. van Meirvenne Universiteit van Gent, Department of Soil Management,
Coupure Links 653, B-9000 Gent, Belgium
M.Voltz Laboratoire de Science du Sol, INRA, 2 Placeviala, 34060 Montpellier,
Cedex 1, France
R.Webster Department of Statistics, IACR Rothamsted, Harpenden, Hertfordshire
AL5 2J Q, UK
Novartis Foundation Symposium
Edited by John V. Lake, GregoIy R. Bock, Jamie A. Goode
Copyright 0 1997 by Ciba Foundation
Chairman’s introduction
Rudy Rabbinge
Scientific Councilf or Government Polic_y, 2 Plein 7813, P.O. Box 20004, 2500 EA, The
Hague, The NetherLands
To put this symposium on precision agriculture in its wider context, a ‘birds-eye’ view
of the changes that have taken place in agriculture over the last century may help.
Agricultural development in the twentieth century can be characterized in terms of
five major trends:
(1) the increase in land and labour productivity;
(2) the use of external inputs;
(3) an increase in efficiency and efficacy of external inputs;
(4) an awareness of (and attempts to mitigate) the negative side-effects of agriculture;
and
(5) the stimulation of uniformity in agricultural production areas.
One of the most significant developments has been the increase in land productivity.
This is demonstrated in Fig. 1, which shows the relationship between land
productivity and rice yields in Indonesia. In the 1950s rice yield increases were in the
order of magnitude of 2.5 kg/ha per year, but these increased to 130 kg/ha per year by
the middle of the 1960s. This dramatic rise in the rate of yield increases is known as the
‘green revolution’, and although this occurred in the 1960s in Asia, it had already taken
place at the beginning of the century in parts of the industrialized world. A similar
discontinuity in productivity rise took place just after World War I1 in the USA and
Europe. The reason why this sort of discontinuity in production occurs is an important
question. The clearest answer is because of the synergism between introduction of
artificial fertilizers, mechanization, better crop varieties and the application of new
agricultural knowledge.
Average wheat yields represent a good example of the nature of the changes that
have occurred in agriculture. At the beginning of this century in Western Europe,
wheat yields were in the order of 1500 kg/ha per year. Nowadays this has risen to
700Ck9000 kg/ha per year. Last year (1996) in The Netherlands the average for the
whole country was 9000 kg/ha per year. This sixfold increase occurred in less than
100 years, whereas it took many centuries for wheat yields to increase from 800 kg/ha
per year to the level of 1500 kg/ha per year they had reached 100 year$ ago.
I
2 RABBINGE
[ton ha-l]
4
/=
3
0
B
.Q-
A
$ 2
a!
1
0 I I I
1 1960 1970 1980 1 30
Year
FIG. 1. Rate of increase in paddy yields in Indonesia, 1955-1980.
Even more impressive is the rise in labour productivity. At the beginning of the
century a hectare of wheat required 37Ck400 h of labour; nowadays a similar size field
needs 12-15 h labour in Western Europe and only 6 h in Australia! So, in just 100 years,
labour productivity has increased 200-fold.
This increased productivity mainly has to do with applied agricultural knowledge
and the use of external inputs. Primary production is influenced considerably by
industrial products, such as artificial fertilizers, mechanization, water management
and irrigation. It is the inter-dependence between the agricultural and industrial
sectors that has helped to create this considerable increase in productivity.
The third typical characteristic is the increase in efficiency and efficacy of external
inputs. This is somewhat counterintuitive. It is generally assumed that with
increasing inputs the outputs increase and then plateau, as a result of diminishing
returns. This holds for an individual input factor when the others are constant, but
not when the inputs increase together in an orchestrated manner. Then the efficacy
and efficiency of these external inputs may increase, as has been demonstrated during
the last century, so instead of diminishing returns the efficiency increased. This does
not continue in an unlimited way, but as long as the actual yields are still far below the
potential these responses are still valid. It requires much knowledge and expertise.
Fourthly, there has been a growing awareness of (and attempts to mitigate) the
negative side-effects of agriculture, caused by the over-use of external inputs and the