Chinese and Indian Strategic Behavior: Growing Power and Alarm Paperback

346 Pages·2012·4 MB·English

by  Eric Heginbotham

CHINESE AND INDIAN STRATEGIC BEHAVIOR
h is book of ers an empirical comparison of Chinese and Indian international
strategic behavior. It is the i rst study of its kind, i lling an important gap in the
literature on rising Indian and Chinese power and American interests in Asia.
h e book creates a framework for the systematic and objective assessment of
Chinese and Indian strategic behavior in four areas: (1) strategic culture; (2)
foreign policy and use of force; (3) military modernization (including defense
spending, military doctrine, and force modernization); and (4) economic
strategies (including international trade and energy competition). h e utility
of democratic peace theory in predicting Chinese and Indian behavior is also
examined. h e i ndings challenge many assumptions underpinning Western
expectations of China and India.
George J. Gilboy is the chief representative of an international energy i rm
in China. Concurrently, he is a Senior Fellow at the Center for International
Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). He was previously the
head of Strategy and Planning for Shell Gas & Power in China. Prior to join-
ing Shell, he established the China business for Cambridge Energy Research
Associates. His publications have appeared in Foreign Af airs , h e Washington
Quarterly , h e National Interest , Economic Research (Chinese), and Twenty-
First Century Business Review (Chinese). He speaks and reads Chinese and has
been living and working in China for the last eighteen years. He received his
PhD in political science from MIT.
Eric Heginbotham is a Senior Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation and
specializes in East Asian political and security af airs. He was formerly a Senior
Fellow of Asian Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. He has published
in F oreign Af airs , I nternational Security , C urrent History , M ilitary Review , and
a number of edited volumes. He has also coauthored several RAND mono-
graphs and is the coeditor of China and the Developing World . He served as a
Military Intelligence oi cer in the U.S. Army Reserve for fourteen years, spent
more than ten years in Asia, and speaks and reads Chinese and Japanese. He
received his PhD in political science from MIT.
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Chinese and Indian Strategic Behavior
Growing Power and Alarm
GEORGE J. GILBOY
ERIC HEGINBOTHAM
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cambridge university press
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© G eorge J. Gilboy and Eric Heginbotham 2 012
h is publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception
and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements,
no reproduction of any part may take place without the written
permission of Cambridge University Press.
First published 2012
Printed in the United States of America
A catalog record for this publication is available from the British Library.
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication data
Gilboy, George J., 1964–
Chinese and Indian strategic behavior : growing power and alarm /
George J. Gilboy, Eric Heginbotham.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-1-107-02005-4 (hbk.) – ISBN 978-1-107-66169-1 (pbk.)
1. China – Foreign relations – 21st century. 2. Strategic culture – China. 3. China –
Military policy. 4. China – Foreign economic relations. 5. India – Foreign relations – 21st
century. 6. Strategic culture – India. 7. India – Military policy. 8. India – Foreign
economic relations. I. Heginbotham, Eric. II. Title.
JZ1734.G55 2011
355′.033551–dc23 2011046091
ISBN 978-1-107-02005-4 Hardback
ISBN 978-1-107-66169-1 Paperback
Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs for
external or third-party Internet Web sites referred to in this publication and does not guarantee
that any content on such Web sites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate.

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To our parents and our wives

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Contents
List of Figures page v iii
List of Tables ix
Acknowledgments xi
Preface xv
List of Abbreviations xxv
Map 1. India and South Asia x xviii
Map 2. China and the Asian Continent x xix
Map 3. China and East Asia x xx
1 Introduction 1
2 Strategic Culture: Unique Paths to a Veiled Realpolitik 25
3 Foreign Policy, Use of Force, and Border Settlements 40
4 Military Modernization: Defense Spending 94
5 Military Doctrine: Toward Emphasis on Of ensive Action 133
6 Military Force Modernization and Power Projection 1 64
7 Economic Strategic Behavior: Trade and Energy 2 09
8 India, China, and Democratic Peace h eory 251
9 Meeting the Dual Challenge: A U.S. Strategy for
China and India 264
Appendix: Defense Spending, Selected Additional Data 3 01
Bibliography 3 09
Index 333
vii
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Figures
3.1 Continuity and change in foreign policy page 44
3.2 India: Use of force and war, 1947–2001 7 7
3.3 China: Use of force and war, 1949–2001 7 9
3.4 Indian and Chinese use of force and war, 1947–2001 80
4.1 China: Real GDP growth and real oi cial defense budget
growth 104
4.2 India: Real GDP growth and real oi cial defense budget growth 104
4.3 Chinese and Indian oi cial defense budgets as a percentage of
GDP 105
4.4 Oi cial defense spending share in central government
expenditure 107
7.1 Upstream oil and gas acquisitions by value, 1994–2008, selected
companies 236
7.2 Upstream oil and gas acquisitions by reserves, 1994–2008,
selected companies 236
9.1 Standard view of security dilemmas in Asia 275
9.2 Nested security dilemmas in Asia 276
viii
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Tables
3.1 Agreement in UN General Assembly resolutions adopted
with recorded votes page 72
3.2 Opposition in UN General Assembly resolutions adopted
with recorded votes 72
3.3 China and India (1949–2001): Use of force and war 7 6
4.1 Indian and Chinese defense spending, 2005 and 2010 98
4.2 India: Oi cial defense budget, 2005 and 2010 100
4.3 China: Oi cial defense budget, 2005 and 2010 101
4.4 GDP and oi cial defense budgets, 1980–2010 103
4.5 Full defense-spending estimate and boundaries, 2005 117
4.6 Full defense-spending estimate and boundaries, 2010 118
4.7 India: Estimated full defense spending, 2005 and 2010 118
4.8 China: Estimated full defense spending, 2005 and 2010 119
4.9 Local PPP currency units per U.S. dollar 125
4.10 Full defense-spending market exchange rate and PPP-adjusted 129
6.1 Delivered arms imports, top 10 recipients 167
6.2 Selected major Chinese and Indian arms imports, 2000–2010 169
6.3 China’s major surface warships: Destroyers, 2010 178
6.4 China’s major surface warships: Frigates, 2010 179
6.5 India’s major surface warships, 2010 1 82
6.6 China’s submarine forces, 2010 1 85
6.7 India’s submarine forces, 2010 1 86
6.8 India’s air force, 2010 191
6.9 China’s air force, 2010 193
6.10 Chinese and Indian strategic weapons, 2010 197
6.11 Conventional strike: Selected missile programs circa 2010 200
7.1 2010 snapshot: Population and economy 212
7.2 International trade, 2009 216
ix
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x Tables
7.3 Inward foreign direct investment 219
7.4 Simple average MFN applied tarif s on international trade
goods (percent), 2009 221
7.5 WTO trade complaints against China and India 2 21
7.6 Comparison of WTO trade dispute cases 221
7.7 U.S. trade with India and China, 2010 223
7.8 China and India: Similar American trade and investment
complaints 226
7.9 Business and investment environment, rank among 183
economies, 2011 227
7.10 Oil demand, production, and reserves, 2010 232
7.11 Chinese and Indian NOC crude oil production, 2010 233
7.12 Chinese and Indian NOC’s “going out” 2004–2006 in context 2 37
7.13 Chinese and Indian energy investments in “rogue” states 242
A.1 Defense spending upper boundary calculation 3 02
A.2 Market exchange rates and PPP exchange rates to 1 U.S. dollar,
2005 and 2010 303
A.3 India 2005: Estimated full defense spending at appropriate
PPP U.S. dollars 304
A.4 China 2005: Estimated full defense spending at appropriate
PPP U.S. dollars 305
A.5 India 2010: Estimated full defense spending at appropriate
PPP U.S. dollars 306
A.6 China 2010: Estimated full defense spending at appropriate
PPP U.S. dollars 307
A.7 Gross domestic product, selected years 308
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