Table Of ContentChina’s Rise
and Its Global
Implications
Shaoguang Wang
China’s Rise and Its Global Implications
Shaoguang Wang
China’s Rise and Its
Global Implications
Shaoguang Wang
Institute of State Governance
Huazhong University of Science and Technology
Wuhan, China
Translated by Lei Xiong
B&R Book Program
ISBN 978-981-16-4340-8 ISBN 978-981-16-4341-5 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-4341-5
Jointly published with CITIC Press Corporation
The print edition is not for sale in China (Mainland). Customers from China (Mainland)
please order the print book from: CITIC Press Corporation.
Translation from the Chinese language edition:《中国崛起的世界意义》by Shaoguang
Wang, © CITIC Press Corporation 2020. Published by CITIC Press Corporation. All
Rights Reserved.
© CITIC Press Corporation 2021
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the
Publisher,whetherthewholeorpartofthematerialisconcerned,specificallytherightsof
reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or
inanyotherphysicalway,andtransmissionorinformationstorageandretrieval,electronic
adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or
hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc.
in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such
namesareexemptfromtherelevantprotectivelawsandregulationsandthereforefreefor
general use.
The publishers, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and infor-
mation in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication.
Neither the publishers nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied,
withrespecttothematerialcontainedhereinorforanyerrorsoromissionsthatmayhave
beenmade.Thepublishersremainneutralwithregardtojurisdictionalclaimsinpublished
maps and institutional affiliations.
Cover illustration: Shaoguang Wang
This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature
Singapore Pte Ltd.
Theregisteredcompanyaddressis:152BeachRoad,#21-01/04GatewayEast,Singapore
189721, Singapore
Preface
Ever since 1949, there have been recurring predictions about PRC’s
imminent collapse. Many are convinced that China’s system would not
work, and its development would sooner or later hit a wall. Why do
so many people have repeatedly made wrong predictions? It has to do
with their tacit theoretical basis and dogmas in the heads of those who
make such predictions. The Preface briefly discusses some of prevailing
“theories” and reveals their unspoken premises: Only systems possessing
certaintalismansofpowerwouldprevail,andallothersaredoomedtofail
unlesstheyfollowthepathsuggestedbythe“theories.”China’sriseover-
turns these theories. The book attempts to explain why China, once an
extremely poor country in the East with no history of colonialism, could
take off after it embarked on the road of socialism. The story of China
tells the world that if China can, so can all others.
Wuhan, China Shaoguang Wang
v
Contents
1 Introduction 1
Ridiculous Prediction 2
Ridiculous Theory 5
What Does China’s Rise Mean to the World? 11
2 Revelation: State Capacity and Economic Development 15
Many Countries (Regions) Carried Out Reform
and Opening-Up 15
Conditions Required for Successful Reform and Opening-Up 19
State Capacity and East–West Divergence 20
State Capacity and China–Japan Divergence 48
Summary 58
3 Groundwork: From Old China to New China 65
National Reality Before the Founding of New China 69
From the Founding of New China up to 1978, Before
the Reform and Opening-Up 87
Summary 110
4 Exploration: From New China’s First 30 Years to Next
40 Years 115
Explorations in the 30 Years Pre-reform 117
Explorations in the 40 Years Post-reform 131
Summary 152
vii
viii CONTENTS
5 Steering: From Planning to Programming 155
PlanningWellforDecisionMade,ActionTakenwithSuccess
Secured 157
Preparedness Ensures Success, Unpreparedness Spells Failure 173
Summary 181
6 Pillar: State-Owned Enterprises and Industrialization 185
New China’s Starting Point 188
From an Agricultural to an Industrial Country, 1949–1984 209
From Industrial Country to Industrial Power, 1985–2019 229
Summary 252
7 Direction: From Economic to Social Policies 253
Take Economic Construction as the Central Task 253
Reduce Inequality 258
Reduce the Sense of Insecurity 264
Summary 281
8 Leapfrogging: Striding from Middle Income to High
Income 287
Appendix: ALookatthe“GreatFamine”fromaHistorical
and Comparative Perspective 301
List of Figures
Fig. 2.1 Economic development in China and Soviet-Eastern
European countries (1985 = 1) (Source The Conference
Board, Total Economy Database: Output, Labor
and Labor Productivity, 1950–2018, March 2019) 17
Fig. 2.2 Economic development in China and the nine
countries (1985 = 1) (Source The Conference Board,
Total Economy Database: Output, Labor and Labor
Productivity, 1950–2018, March 2019) 18
Fig. 2.3 Number of conflicts in Europe and China, 1450–1839
(The dotted line represents Europe, the solid line China)
t (Source Adopted from Tonio Andrade, The Gunpowder
Age: China, Military Innovation, and the Rise of the West
in World History, p. 6) 30
Fig. 2.4 GDP per capita in China and Japan, 1661–1900 (Source
MaddisonProjectDatabase(Version2018)byJuttaBolt,
Robert Inklaar, Herman de Jong and Jan Luiten van
Zanden, https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/historicaldevelopm
ent/maddison/data/mpd2018.xlsx) 50
Fig. 2.5 Tax revenues per capita (koku of Rice) in China
and Japan, 1650–1850 (Source Adopted from Sng
Tuan-Hwee and Chiaki Moriguchi, Asia’s Little
Divergence: State Capacity in China and Japan
before 1850,Journal of Economic Growth, Vol. 19, No. 4
[December 2014], p. 441) 51
ix
x LIST OF FIGURES
Fig. 2.6 Railway operational mileage in China and Japan
1871–1907 (Source B. R. Mitchell, International
Historical Statistics: Africa, Asia & Oceania, 1750–1993,
3rd Edition [London: Macmillan Reference Ltd. 1998],
pp. 683–684) 53
Fig. 2.7 Rebellions during the Tokugawa shogunate and early
years of Meiji Restoration (Sources Roger W. Bowen,
Rebellion and Democracy in Meiji Japan: A Study
of Commoners in the Popular Rights Movement [Berkeley,
CA: University of California Press, 1984], p. 73) 56
Fig. 2.8 Pattern of per capita GDP growth: Korea, Brazil,
India, and Nigeria, 1960–2000 (Source Atul
Kohli, State-Directed Development: Political Power
andIndustrializationintheGlobalPeriphery [Cambridge:
Cambridge University Press, 2004], p. 24) 61
Fig. 2.9 State capacity and economic growth (Source Atul Kohli,
States and Economic Development, 2010, http://www.pri
nce-ton.edu/kohli/docs/SED.pdf) 61
Fig. 2.10 State capacity and level of economic development (Source
Susan E. Rice and Stewart Patrick, Index of State
Weakness in Developing World [Washington, DC: The
Brookings Institution, 2008]) 62
Fig. 3.1 The past and present of the state Farm 850
in Heilongjiang Province (Wang Zhen and demobilized
soldiers carry earth to build the dam of the Farm 850
today Yunshan Reservoir on the Farm 850 in 1958) 68
Fig. 3.2 The situation in the far east (Source The cartoon
was created by Xie Zuantai [Tse Tsan-tai, 1872–1937],
anditwasfirstpublishedbytheJournalofFurenLiterary
Society, in Hong Kong in July 1898) 70
Fig. 3.3 The economic growth rate, 1913–1936 (Source Liu Wei,
Calculation of China’s GDP, 1913–1936, The Journal
of Chinese Social and Economic History, No. 3 [2008],
pp. 90–98) 80
Fig. 3.4 GDP per capita in China, India and African countries,
1950 (International U.S. dollar in 2017) (Source The
Conference Board, Total Economy Database, April 2019,
http://www.conference-board.org/data/economydatab
ase/TED1) 81
LIST OF FIGURES xi
Fig. 3.5 GDP per capita in China, India and African countries,
2019 (International U.S. dollar value in 2017) (Source
The Conference Board, Total Economy Database, April
2019, http://www.conference-board.org/data/econom
ydatabase/TED1) 82
Fig. 3.6 Crime rates in the first three decades (Source Cited
from Xiaogang Deng and Ann Cordilla, To Get
Rich is Glorious: Rising Expectations, Declining
Control, and Escalating Crime in Contemporary
China, International Journal of Offender Therapy
and Comparative Criminology, Vol. 43, No. 2 [June
1999], p. 212) 92
Fig. 3.7 Initial land distribution and economic growth (Average
GDP growth, 1960–2000 [%]) (Source Klaus Deininger,
Land Policies for Growth and Poverty Reduction: A World
Bank Policy Research Report [Washington, DC: World
Bank, 2003], p. 18) 95
Fig. 3.8 Average life expectancy of New China, 1949–1980
(Source Data of 1953–1959 are from Judith Banister,
China: Changing Population [Stanford: Stanford
University Press, 1987], p. 116, Table 4.18; data
after 1960 are from World Bank: World Development
Indicators 1960–2018, http://databank.worldbank.org/
data.download/WDI_excel.zip) 98
Fig. 3.9 WindowperiodofChina’sdemographictransition(Source
Misbah T. Choudhry and J. Paul Elhorst, Demographic
Transition and Economic Growth in China,India
and Pakistan,Economic Systems, Vol. 34, No. 2 [2010],
pp. 218–236) 99
Fig. 3.10 Window period of India’s demographic transition
(Source: Misbah T. Choudhry and J. Paul Elhorst,
DemographicTransitionandEconomicGrowthinChina,
India and Pakistan, Economic Systems, Vol. 34, No. 2
[2010], pp. 218–236) 100
Fig. 3.11 Student enrollments at various types of schools (10,000)
(Source Department of Comprehensive Statistics
of National Bureau of Statistics, China Compendium
of Statistics 1949–2008, Statistical Database of Chinese
Economic Social Development) 101
