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China's Global Activism:
and
Strategy, Drivers, Tools
by Phillip C. Saunders
u
411
.16
S18
2006
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China's Global Activism:
Strategy, Drivers, and Tools
China's Global Activism:
Strategy, Drivers, and Tools
by Phillip C. Saunders
ALFREDM.GRAYMARINECORPS
RESEARCHCENTER
ATTNCOLLECTIONMANAGEMENT
(C40RCL)
2040BROADWAYST
QUANTICOVA 22134-5107
Institutefor National Strategic Studies
Occasional Paper 4
National Defense University Press
Washington, D.C.
Press October 2006
:ityd-a^gy-Zp
u
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Contents
Acknowledgments
vii
Sources and Methodology viii
Executive Summary
1
Introduction 3
Grand Strategy, Economic Development, and
Foreign Policy Priorities 3
Drivers ofChinas Increasing Global Activism 6
Tools for Chinese Global Influence 10
Data on Chinese Regional Priorities 18
Is Chinas Increased Global Activism the
Product ofa Global Strategy? 24
Outlook and Implications 27
Conclusion 30
Notes 30
Appendix: Regional Data
Asia 35
Total Exports Destined for China from Asia—1993, 1998, 2003, 2004 36
Chinese Infrastructure Projects in Asia 37
PRC FDI to Asia Excluding SARs 38
Asia Percent ofTotal PRC FDI 38
Africa 39
Total Exports Destined for China from Africa—1993, 1998, 2003, 2004 40
Chinese Infrastructure Projects in Africa 41
PRC FDI to Africa 42
Africa Percent ofTotal PRC FDI 42
—
Latin America 43
Total Exports Destined for China from Latin America—1993, 1998, 2003, 2004 44
Chinese Infrastructure Projects in Latin America 45
PRC FDI to Latin America Excluding FDI Havens 46
Latin America Percent ofTotal PRC FDI 46
The Middle East 47
Total Exports Destined for China from Middle East—1993, 1998, 2003, 2004 48
Chinese Infrastructure Projects in the Middle East 49
PRC FDI to Middle East 50
Middle East Percent ofTotal PRC FDI 50
The Former Soviet Union and South Asia 51
Total Exports Destined for China from the Former Soviet Union and South Asia
1993, 1998, 2003, 2004 52
Chinese Infrastructure Projects in the Former Soviet Union and South Asia 53
PRC FDI to the Former Soviet Union and South Asia 54
Former Soviet Union and South Asia Percent ofTotal PRC FDI 54
Europe 55
Total Exports Destined for China from Europe—1993, 1998, 2003, 2004 56
PRC FDI to Europe 57
Europe Percent ofTotal PRC FDI 57
About the Author 59
VI
Acknowledgments
My analysis for this project draws heavily upon a wealth ofdata collected by a team ofcontractors and
research assistants overa6-month period. I wouldliketo acknowledge their specific contributions.
Daniel Melleby served as research coordinator for the project. He played a critical role in identifying
data sources and collection methods, writing the research protocol to ensure consistency ofdata collection
and analysis across different regions, collecting data for some key items, training and organizing the regional
researchers, and conducting quality reviews ofthe collected data. He created many ofthe graphics and maps
in the report and provided timely and extremely helpful comments on the first draft. This paper could not
havebeen completed without his contributions.
Henry Yep worked as an intern and research assistant on the project. His contributions included help-
ing identify data sources and methods, collecting much ofthe Asia data and centrally collected data to vali-
datethedata collection profile, creatinga variet)'ofgraphics and tables, andprovidingcommentsonthedraft
report. He was also invaluable in preparingthe report (andespeciallyitsgraphics) forpublication.
Tanya Hoke worked as an intern and research assistant on the project. Her contributions includedhelp-
ing to identify data sources and methods and collecting much ofthe Asia data to validate the data collection
profile. She also found the graphics software used to create the maps in the appendix.
Tamara Shie provided administrative support for the contractors, research assistants, and internswork-
ing on the project. She collected some ofthe Asia data, commented on the draft report, and drafted the text
boxes IslandFever, Train in Vain?andAnatomyofa State Visit. Hercogentanalysis ofChinese activitiesinthe
South Pacific informed the argument.
Contractors/research assistants who collected data and performed analysis on Chinese activities in
individual regions included Arturo Hines (Europe); Reza Marashi (Middle East); Sonia Nagda (South Asia/
Former Soviet Union); Nicholas Samuelson (Latin America); and Ross van Horn (Africa). Lora Saalman
also assisted with the collection of Africa data. Catherine O'Keefe collected and analyzed data on Chinese
trade. Sonia Nagda, Reza Marashi, and Rossvan Horn providedconciseanalysison Chinese activities in their
regions that informed the papers arguments. Reza Marashi and Ross van Horn also provided useful com-
ments and proofreadingassistanceon the first draft.
Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) intern Brian Harding came late to the project but pro-
vided timely research assistance at critical moments. He drafted the text box Language and Soft Power. INSS
interns Daniel Michaeli and Erik Quan proofread the manuscript; INSS research assistant Steven Duke
assisted with final editing and proofreading.
I would like to thank INSS Director Stephen J. Flanagan and INSS Research Director James Schear
for their strong support and their insightful and timely comments on multiple drafts. Col. Anne Moisan,
USAF, Don Mosser, and Deborah Jefferson found space for researchers and processed their contracts. INSS
colleagues James Przystup, Renata Louie, Jay Cope, and Robert Oakley graciously shared their expertise.
Dr JeffreySmotherman ofNDU Presswas responsible forcopyediting.
Severalexperts commented on drafts: Ellen Frost (InstituteofInternational Economics);EricaS. Downs
(Brookings Institution); LeifRosenberger (U.S. Pacific Command); David Helvey (Office ofthe Secretary of
Defense); LTC Heine Klinck (U.S. Defense Attache Office Beijing); Bernard Cole (National War College);
and Cynthia Watson (National WarCollege). Others helped to locate data sources: Mikkal Herberg (National
Bureau ofAsian Research); David Zweig (Hong Kong UniversityofScience and Technology); Jason Kindopp
(EurasiaGroup); and Eric Heginbotham (RAND). Thanks to all fortheirassistance.
Linnea Claire Saunders and Miles Campbell Saunders tried their best to ensure this report was never
finished; Julie Hayne madesuretheydidnotsucceed.
—
Phillip C. Saunders
VII
Sources and Methodology
Much ofthe underlying data for this report was compiled by a team ofcontractors and research assis-
tantsworkingunderthe supervision ofDr. PhiUip C. Saunders and research coordinatorDaniel Melleby. The
researchers were assigned to different regions and followed a detailed research protocol designed to ensure
data comparabihty across regions. Some data (such as Chinas trade statistics and outbound foreign direct
investment) was collected centrallyfor all regions. Sources for most specific statistics and references are cited
usingendnotes.
Trade datais fromthe UnitedNations CommodityTrade Statistics Database (UNCOMTRADE) online,
available at <http://unstats.un.org/unsd/comtrade/default.aspx>. Chinese trade data from this source is
derivedfrom Chinese customs statistics anddoes notaccuratelyaccountforgoodsimportedandre-exported
through HongKong.
Chinese inbound foreign direct investment (FDI) was obtained from various editions ofthe Almanac
ofChinas Foreign Economic Relations and Trade and the China Statistical Yearbook. Chinese outbound FDI
data for 1992-2004was obtained from the China Commerce Yearbook (formerlythe Yearbook ofChinas For-
eign Economic Relations and Trade prior to 2004) published annuallyby the Ministry ofCommerce. Except
for aggregate totals, most outbound figures and percentages exclude FDI in Chinas special administrative
regions Hong KongandMacao and FDI transiting FDI havens Bermuda, the Cayman Islands, andtheVirgin
Islandsto otherdestinations.
Information on Chinese diplomatic agreements and leadership travel was compiled from a variety of
sources. The starting point was various editions ofthe Ministry ofForeign Affairs annual book Chinas For-
eign Affairs (Beijing: World Affairs Press). Both Chinese and English editions were used. This source was
supplementedbytargetedForeign BroadcastInformation Service (FBIS), Lexis, andGoogle searches.
Aggregate total data for Chinese foreign assistance is taken from the 2003-2005 editions ofthe China
Statistical Yearbook. Researchers also used targeted FBIS andLexis searches to collect details ofChinese assis-
tanceto particularcountriesandforparticularprojects.
Chinese infrastructure data was collected from comprehensive searches in Lexis-Nexis and the Open
Source Center/FBIS. The year listed next to a project signifies either when the project was initiallyproposed
orthedateoftheprojects completion.
Values ofChinese infrastructure investments and foreign assistance were occasionally cited in curren-
cies other than U.S. dollars. OANDA.com (http://www.oanda.com/convert/fxhistory) was used to provide
historic currency conversion rates between the cited currency and the U.S. dollar on the date ofthe open
source articlewhich citedthe nondollaramount, oras close to itaspossible ifan exchange rate was notavail-
ableonthatparticularday. AJlvaluations areincurrent,notconstant, dollars.
VIII
