China’s dilemma : economic growth, the environment and climate change

447 Pages·2008·3.274 MB·English

by  Song, Ligang, Woo, Wing Thye

CHINA’S
DILEMMA
ECONOMIC GROWTH, THE ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Ligang Song and Wing Thye Woo (eds)
CHINA’S DILEMMA

CHINA’S DILEMMA
ECONOMIC GROWTH, THE ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Ligang Song and Wing Thye Woo
editors
ANU E PRESS
ASIA PACIFIC PRESS
BROOKINGS INSTITUTION PRESS
SOCIAL SCIENCES ACADEMIC PRESS (China)
ABOUT BROOKINGS
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Copyright © 2008 ANU E Press, Asia Pacific Press, Brookings Institution Press,
and Social Sciences Academic Press (China)
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or
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Brookings Institution Press.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication data is available.
ISBN:978-0-8157-3123-8
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
The paper used in this publication meets minimum requirements of the
American National Standard for Information Sciences—Permanence of Paper for
Printed Library Materials: ANSI Z39.48-1992.
Printed in the United States of America
Cover design by Teresa Prowse
Cover photo by Jason Lyon, iStockphoto, File Number 2831996
Contents
Tables v
Fgures x
symbols x
Abbrevatons xv
contrbutors xv
Acknowledgments xv
1 chna’s dlemmas n the 21st century 1
Ligang Song and Wing Thye Woo
Part I Economic growth: determinants and prospects
2 Wll chna fall nto stagflaton? 13
Yiping Huang
3 Amercan and european financal shocks: mplcatons for
chnese economc performance 30
Rod Tyers and Iain Bain
4 Global producton sharng and Us-chna trade relatons 59
Prema-chandra Athukorala and Nobuaki Yamashita
5 rebalancng equty and efficency for sustaned growth 90
Justin Yifu Lin
6 rural–urban mgrants: a drvng force for growth 110
Xiaodong Gong, Sherry Tao Kong, Shi Li and Xin Meng
7 rethnkng thrty years of reform n chna: mplcatons for
economc performance 153
Xiaolu Wang
Part II Impact of environment degradation and climate change
8 chna’s rapd emssons growth and global clmate change polcy 170
Ross Garnaut, Frank Jotzo and Stephen Howes
9 chna can grow and stll help prevent the tragedy of the
co commons 190
2
Warwick McKibbin, Peter J. Wilcoxen and Wing Thye Woo
10 The poltcal economy of emssons reducton n chna: are
ncentves for low carbon growth compatble? 226
Cai Fang and Du Yang
v
11 The envronmental consequences of foregn drect
nvestment n chna 243
Qun Bao, Yuanyuan Chen, and Ligang Song
12 The mpact of global warmng on chnese wheat productvty 265
Liangzhi You, Mark W. Rosegrant, Cheng Fang and
Stanley Wood
13 Understandng the water crss n northern chna: how do
farmers and the government respond? 276
Jinxia Wang, Jikun Huang, Scott Rozelle, Qiuqiong Huang
and Lijuan Zhang
14 The mpact of ar polluton on mortalty n shangha 297
Health and Mortality Transition in Shanghai Project
Research Team
Part III Energy use, the environment and future trends
15 energy and envronment n chna 310
Kejun Jiang and Xiulian Hu
16 chnese urban household energy requrements and
co emssons 334
2
Jane Golley, Dominic Meagher and Xin Meng
17 can chna’s coal ndustry be reconcled wth the envronment? 367
Xunpeng Shi
18 emssons and economc development: must chna choose? 392
Peter Sheehan and Fiona Sun
Index 415
v
Tables
2.1 estmaton of chna’s cost dstorton 22
3.1 Growth of Us labour productvty n the non-farm busness sector 34
3.2 regonal composton n the global model 38
4.1 chna’s merchandse exports: composton and world market
share, 1992–93 to 2004–05 63
4.2 share of parts and components n chna’s manufacturng trade,
1992–93, 2000–01 and 2005–06 64
4.3 Geographc profile of Us trade 69
4.4 commodty composton of Us trade by partner country 70
4.5 share of parts and components n Us machnery trade 74
4.6 determnants of Us manufacturng mports and exports:
regresson results, 1992–2005 80
A4.1 data set used n regresson analyss: definton of varables,
source and varable constructon, and the country coverage 88
A4.2 country coverage 89
6.1 census: mgrant numbers by cty 121
6.2 Industry dstrbuton of mgrant workers n 15 ctes 122
6.3 Famly and ndvdual characterstcs 124
6.4 Job characterstcs 127
6.5 earnngs and work-related welfare 129
6.6 Income, expendture and housng condtons 133
6.7 health and mental health 137
6.8 chldren’s lvng arrangements 138
6.9 Basc characterstcs of mgrants’ chldren 140
6.10 Parental-assessed chldren’s health, educaton and other
development outcomes by lvng arrangements 141
A6.1 dfferent poverty lnes 150
A6.2 dfferent poverty lnes 150
A6.3 detaled and broad ndustry categores 151
7.1 economc performance n chna and russa durng the
reform perod 155
7.2 Farm output and ncome before and after agrcultural
reform n chna 158
7.3 Proporton of products subject to market prces 161
7.4 Prce reform n the first decade: nflaton, unemployment and
GdP growth 163
7.5 ownershp structure of the ndustral sector (share n gross
output value) 164
v
8.1 A comparson of GdP, energy and carbon doxde emssons
growth rates and elastctes for the world and chna, 1971–2005 172
8.2 Growth-accountng projectons for chna, 2005–25 176
9.1 Global economc and demographc changes, 0–2003 191
9.2 chna’s share of global energy consumpton and carbon doxde
emssons, 1990–2030 197
9.3 Fossl-fuel augmentaton factors 217
A9.1 overvew of the G-cubed model (verson 80J) 225
10.1 summary statstcs of varables 231
10.2 economc development and sulphur doxde emssons:
two-way fixed-effect model 236
11.1 selected lterature on the relatonshp between FdI and polluton 246
11.2 FdI and polluton emssons among dfferent provnces 249
11.3 Fve ndcators of polluton emssons n chna 250
11.4 Basc statstcal nformaton on polluton and FdI 253
11.5 Total sample estmaton results 253
11.6 The threshold effect of FdI for five pollutants 255
11.7 estmaton results of the three effects 257
11.8 estmaton results for coastal eastern regons 257
11.9 estmaton results for nland provnces 259
11.10 comparsons of the FdI–polluton nexus among dfferent regons 260
12.1 estmated wheat-yeld functon n chna, 1979–2000 269
12.2 comparson: mpact of 1ºc ncrease n growng-season
temperature 271
12.3 Accountng for wheat-yeld growth 272
13.1 Farmers’ judgements of water shortages n vllages n
northern chna 281
13.2 Water-supply relablty n vllages n northern chna 281
13.3 Adopton rate of water-savng technologes over tme n northern
chna’s vllages 292
14.1 summary statstcs of mortalty outcome, ar polluton levels and
meteorologcal measures by season 301
14.2 relatve rsk (rr) and 95 per cent confidence nterval (cI) of the
best sngle lagged-day effects by lnear extrapolaton for a tenth–
nneteth percentle change n pollutant concentraton, 2000–01 303
14.3 relatve rsk (rr) and 95 per cent confidence nterval (cI) of the
best sngle lagged-day effects by lnear extrapolaton for a tenth–
nneteth percentle change n pollutant concentraton, 2000–01 305
15.1 chnese energy output by fuel, 1990–2006 314
v
15.2 Gross and structure of chnese energy producton, 1978–2006 315
15.3 major polluton emssons n chna, 1995–2006 318
15.4 energy-conservaton projects approved by the chnese
government n 2005 325
15.5 Prmary energy demand n baselne scenaro, mtce 328
15.6 Prmary energy demand n polcy scenaro, mtce 328
15.7 Fnal energy demand n baselne scenaro 329
15.8 Fnal energy demand n polcy scenaro 329
15.9 Polcy optons used n the modellng study 330
16.1 chna’s drect energy consumpton n 2005 340
16.2 shares of household consumpton expendture n total output 341
16.3 Indrect energy requrements for rural and urban households 341
16.4 energy and carbon ntenstes by sector n 2005 343
16.5 carbon coefficents by fuel 345
16.6 Average energy consumpton and carbon emssons by
ncome decle 347
16.7 Prce per tonne of coal equvalent 348
16.8 determnants of household per capta energy consumpton 353
16.9 determnants of household per capta carbon emssons 355
A16.1 Breakdown of per capta expendture 364
A16.2 Aggregaton of survey sectors nto Table 16.4 sectors 365
A16.3 emsson shares of consumpton goods by ncome decle 365
17.1 summary statstcs of the panel data 375
17.2 estmated results of the fixed-effects sUr model 377
17.3 emsson ntensty and the appearance of the zero emssons pont 378
17.4 estmated results of the provncal dummy of the sUr model 379
17.5 summary of factors that affect the changes n sulphur doxde,
smoke and dust emssons, 1997–2006 381
17.6 coal-based power generaton technology n chna 386
18.1 energy consumpton and value added by ndustry n chna,
2001–06 403
18.2 model parameters and assumptons for alternatve energy runs:
specficatons for the base case and polcy optons to 2030 407
18.3 summary of unchanged polcy and alternatve polcy projectons 410
x