China’s Agriculture at the Crossroads

309 Pages·2000·2.215 MB·English

by  Yongzheng Yang, Weiming Tian (eds.)

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China’s Agriculture at the Crossroads
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China’s Agriculture
at the Crossroads
Edited by
Yongzheng Yang
Senior Lecturer
National Centre for Development Studies
Australian National University
Canberra
Australia
and
Weiming Tian
Professor of Economics
China Agricultural University
Beijing
China
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First published in Great Britain 2000 by
MACMILLAN PRESS LTD
Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS and London
Companies and representatives throughout the world
Acatalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
ISBN 978-1-349-41429-1 ISBN 978-0-333-97810-8 (eBook)
DOI 10.1057/9780333978108
First published in the United States of America 2000 by
ST. MARTIN’S PRESS, INC.,
Scholarly and Reference Division,
175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10010
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
China’s agriculture at the crossroads / edited by Yongzheng Yang,
Weiming Tian.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
1. Agriculture and state—China. 2. Agriculture—Economic
aspects—China. 3. Food supply—China. 4. China—Economic
policy—1976– I. Yang, Yongzheng. II. Tian, Weiming.
HD2098.C4716 1999
338.1'851—dc21 99–43336
CIP
Selection, editorial matter and Chapter 1 ©Yongzheng Yang and Weiming Tian 2000
Chapters 5 and 10 ©Weiming Tian 2000
Chapters 6 ©Weiming Tian and Xiurong He 2000
Chapter 7 ©Weiming Tian and Fu Qin 2000
Chapter 16 ©Yongzheng Yang and Yiping Huang 2000
Chapters 2–4, 8, 9, 11–15 ©Macmillan Press Ltd 2000
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2000 978-0-333-76114-4
All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made
without written permission.
No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written
permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act
1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright
Licensing Agency, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London W1P0LP.
Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to
criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages.
The authors have asserted their rights to be identified as the authors of this work in accordance
with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained
forest sources.
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Contents
List of Figures and Tables vii
Preface and Acknowledgements xii
Abbreviations and Glossary xiv
List of Contributors xvi
1 Agricultural Reform: An Unfinished Long March 1
Yongzheng Yang and Weiming Tian
Part I Setting the Scene
2 Issues and Challenges in Agricultural Reform 21
Li Ding
3 AChanging Global Food Market: Implications for China 34
Ron Duncan
Part II Commodity Markets
4 An Analysis of China’s Corn Market 49
Xiangyong Tan and Xian Xin
5 The Changing pattern of Rice Production in China 64
Weiming Tian
6 Livestock Consumption: Diverse and Changing Preferences 78
Xiurong He and Weiming Tian
7 Feeding the Livestock: Technological Choice, Trade Policy
and Efficiency 98
Fu Qin and Weiming Tian
8 On-farm Grain Stocks and their Impact on Market Stability
in China 118
Bingsheng Ke
v
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vi Contents
Part III Production Efficiency, Statistics and Market
Projections
9 AMicro-empirical Analysis of Land Fragmentation and Scale
Economies in Rural China 131
Guang H. Wan and Enjiang Cheng
10 Technical Efficiency of China’s Grain Production : 148
Weiming Tian
11 The Accuracy of China’s Grain Production Data: Evidence
from Two County-level Case Studies 166
Ziping Wu and Zhifang Wang
12 Projecting China’s Grain Demand and Supply 180
Xi-ji An
13 The Impact of China’s Growth on Global Grain Markets 194
George Reeves, David Vincent and Derek Quirke
Part IV Trade Policy
14 China’s Comparative Advantage in Agriculture: An
Empirical Analysis 211
Xiao-guang Zhang
15 Analysis of Chinese and Indonesian Food Policy Options 236
Ray Trewin
16 Food Security, Farm Income and Trade Policy 263
Yongzheng Yang and YipingHuang
References 277
Index 287
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List of Figures and Tables
Figures
4.1 Provincial shares in national corn output, 1995 50
4.2 Corn sown area in total grain sown area, 1949–95 51
4.3 Grain yield by crop, 1949–95 53
4.4 Corn yield at the province level, 1995 53
4.5 Corn output in total grain production, 1949–95 54
4.6 Market price of corn by region, May 1996 59
4.7 Imports and exports of corn, 1976–95 61
4.8 Imports and exports of grain, 1975–95 62
5.1 Share of early rice sown area in total sown area, 1978–95 67
5.2 Rice production costs and prices by variety, 1994 68
5.3 Material and labour inputs in rice production, 1975–94 69
5.4 Rice prices by variety, selected years 70
6.1 Per capita output of grain and meat, 1980–96 80
6.2 Meat output and consumption, 1980–95 80
7.1 Structure of feed firms by hourly production capacity 99
7.2 Output of compound feed product, 1978–96 100
7.3 Changes in outputs of animal products, selected years 101
7.4 Output composition of compound feed, 1991 and 1995 102
7.5 Changes in the slaughtering rate of domestic animals 108
10.1 International comparison of cereal yields, 1995 150
10.2 Changes in production inputs in wheat production,
1983–95 151
10.3 Trends of changes in technical efficiencies, 1983–95 162
13.1 Trends in China’s grain production, 1980–95 195
13.2 Trends in China’s grain trade, 1985–96 196
13.3 A schematic representation of the global grains model 198
13.4 Projections of grain production 203
13.5 Projections of China’s dependence on imported grain 204
15.1 GNP and consumption per capita in China, 1978–92 238
15.2 GNP and consumption per capita in Indonesia, 1984–93 238
15.3 GNP by sector in China, 1978–93 239
15.4 GDP by sector in Indonesia, 1984–93 239
15.5 Area and yield of wheat in China, 1978–93 240
15.6 Area and yield of maize in China, 1978–93 240
vii
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viii List of Figures and Tables
15.7 Area and yield of rice in China, 1978–93 241
15.8 Area and yield of maize in Indonesia, 1969–90 241
15.9 Area and yield of rice in Indonesia, 1969–90 241
15.10 Shares in merchandise exports, Indonesia, 1990–94 242
15.11 Shares in merchandise exports, China, 1990–94 242
15.12 Production, consumption and net exports of Chinese
commodities, 1990 and 2020 243
15.13 Production, consumption and net exports of Indonesian
commodities, 1990 and 2020 244
15.14 Self-sufficiency in coarse grains, beef and poultry,
Indonesia and China, 1990 244
15.15 Ad valorem tariffs on agrifood products imported by
China, 1993 and 1995 246
15.16 Ad valorem tariffs on agrifood products imported by
Indonesia, 1990 246
15.17 Cumulative percentage change in composition of real
GDP, 1992–2005 252
Tables
3.1 Per capita food production indexes, by region and
selected countries, 1961–91 36
3.2 Comparison of results of global cereals projections
to 2010 41
4.1 Purchase prices for grain, selected years 52
4.2 Structure of corn consumption, 1990–95 55
4.3 Corn production and direct consumption in
1995 by region 57
5.1 Changes in rice sown area by region, 1978–95 66
5.2 Parameter estimates of the rice model 73
A5.1 Categorisation of provinces 77
6.1 Output of major animal products, 1980–96 79
6.2 Urban per capita consumption of major animal products,
1981–96 82
6.3 Urban per capita consumption of animal products
by income group, 1995 83
6.4 Indexes of urban per capita consumption expenditure
and food prices 83
6.5 Regional consumption patterns for animal products in
urban areas, 1995 85
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List of Figures and Tables ix
6.6 Rural per capita consumption of animal products,
1978–95 86
6.7 Indexes of rural per capita consumption expenditure
and food prices, 1985–95 86
6.8 Regional consumption patterns for animal products
in rural areas, 1995 88
6.9 China’s exports of animal products, selected years 88
6.10 Urban income and price elasticities of demand for
animal products 89
6.11 Rural income and price elasticities of demand for
animal products 91
6.12 Assumed income elasticities of demand, various
products 93
6.13 Projection of demand growth for 2000 and 2010 94
6.14 Government production targets for 2000 and 2010 95
7.1 Output composition of manufactured feed products,
1990 and 1995 101
7.2 Regional distribution of corn, animal and feed
production, 1995 103
7.3 Characteristics of different pig production systems, 1995 107
8.1 On-farm grain stocks by province in China, 1994 119
8.2 Development of on-farm grain stocks in China, 1981–95 122
9.1 Summary description of the survey data, 1994 138
9.2 F-values for testing Cobb–Douglas vs translog and
constant returns to scale 139
9.3 T-ratios for the J-test and F-values for Ramsey’s RESET 140
9.4 T-ratios for P and lnP in the comprehensive models 140
h h
9.5 R2and loglikelihood values of alternative models 141
9.6 Parameter estimates of the preferred models 142
9.7 Output elasticities under different efficiency
specifications 143
9.8 Percentage loss in crop outputs under different
fragmentation scenarios, 1995 144
10.1 Cereal yields and sown areas, 1978–95 150
10.2 Definitions of dummy variables 155
10.3 Parameter estimates of the frontier production functions 156
10.4 Changes in input elasticities by crop, 1983–95 158
10.5 Regions with relatively large potential for efficiency
improvement 161
A10.1 Statistics of variables affecting the technical efficiency,
1995 163