China Rising: Will the West Be Able to Cope?: The Real Long-term Challenge to the Rise of China — and Asia in General

175 Pages·2009·3.23 MB·English

by  Jan Willem Blankert

The real long-term challenge
of the rise of China
CHINA
WILL THE WEST BE ABLE TO COPE?
World Scientific Series on 21st Century Business
ISSN: 1793-5660
Vol. 1 New Business in India: The 21st Century Opportunity
by Paul Davies
Vol. 2 Indian Economic Superpower: Fiction or Future
edited by Jayashankar M. Swaminathan
Vol. 3 China Rising: Will the West be able to Cope? The Real Long-Term
Challenge of the Rise of China — and Asia in General
by Jan Willem Blankert
China Rising.pmd 2 9/2/2009, 7:37 PM
3
World Scientific Series on
st Century
21
Business
The real long-term challenge
of the rise of China
CHINA
WILL THE WEST BE ABLE TO COPE?
Jan Willem Blankert
World Scientific
NEW JERSEY • LONDON • SINGAPORE • BEIJING • SHANGHAI • HONG KONG • TAIPEI • CHENNAI
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Blankert, Jan Willem.
China rising : will the West be able to cope? : the real long-term challenge of the rise of China
and Asia in general / by Jan Willem Blankert.
p. cm. -- (World scientific series on 21st century business ; vol. 3)
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN-13 978-981-283-795-0
ISBN-10 981-283-795-7
1. China--Economic conditions--2000– 2. United States--Economic conditions--2001–
3. Competition, International. I. Title.
HC427.95.B53 2009
330.951--dc22
2009015972
British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
Copyright © 2009 by World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.
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CHINA RISING: Will the West
be Able to Cope?
The real long-term challenge of the rise of China — and Asia in
general — is not about trade competition, investment, jobs or secu-
rity; it is the environment, the global carbon footprint. What will be
the effect of three to four billion people driving cars and turning on
their heating or air conditioners? Is this sustainable?
Jan Willem Blankert1
1I wrote most of this book in March–June, 2008, during a sabbatical year from the European
Commission, as a senior fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy of the National
University of Singapore. The opinions expressed in this book are my own.
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Acknowledgements
During the years of dealing with economic and political analysis and
reform from Africa, Germany (after reunification) and Poland to the
Balkan and China, I have been fortunate in being able to discuss
reform policies, on numerous occasions, with many colleagues and
friends. I am grateful to many analysts and to hands-on policy makers
who worked with me on these issues and took time to speak to me —
and also tothe participants who discussed with me at the seminars and
conferences.
I owe, furthermore, a great debt of gratitude to those who have
taken their time through years of their lives for their insightful and
well-informed articles and books on the subject. In this book, I refer
explicitly to a number of them, but I am indebted to many other
authors, not explicitly mentioned, in helping me form and refine my
thoughts.
I am also as grateful as every researcher in today’s world would to
the creators of the Internet and Google possibly as significant inven-
tions for mankind as the wheel. These tools, taken together, give all
computer-literates immediate access to tremendous wealth of knowl-
edge in a richly endowed library.
Finally I am indebted to Klaus Kading and Bertin Martens, for
their helpful suggestions on the draft manuscript.
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Contents
Acknowledgements vii
About This Book: Main Issues xi
I. In Perspective: Long-Term Economic Growth 1
I.1. Consequences of China’s Rise 1
I.2. Asia: Finally Getting There? 4
I.3. China’s Rise in Perspective 6
I.4. Long-Term Growth: Where Does It Come From? 9
I.5. Seven Pillars of Western Wisdom 12
and the Soft Infrastructure of Capitalism
I.6. Democracy and Indicators of Good Governance 18
II. The West Competing with Low-Wage China 27
II.1. China’s Bilateral Trade Surpluses with the 27
EU and the US: One Big Difference
II.2. Are Jobs and Wages in the West at Risk? 32
II.3. What Is It: Low-Wage Countries or Technology; 40
or Both?
II.4. Globalisation: South/North Divide in the EU, 46
Left/Right in the US
II.5. Could It Be? The EU Better Placed 51
to Face the Challenge?
II.5.1. The EU–Lisbon Agenda 51
and Macro-Economic Stability
II.5.2. The More Inclusive EU: Social Security 56
ix