Channel Surfing: Riding the Waves of Channels to Profitable Trading

214 Pages·2005·4.88 MB·English

by  Michael Parsons

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by
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Nop arotft hibso omka yb er eproduscteodri,ena d r etriseyvsatloe rmt ,r ansmbiyt ted
anmye anwsi thtohuwetr itten poefrtm haieus tshioorn.
Firpsutb lishAeudt hboyr H0o3u/s1e6 /05
ISBN1:- 4208-3(3s1c2)- X
Prinitnte hdUe n itSetda toefAs m erica
BloominIgntdoina,n a
Thibso oiksp rinotnea dc id-fpraepee r.
LimoifLt i ability/oDfiW sacrlraainWmthieylr:te h peu bliasnhdae urt hhoarvu es ed
thebiers t eiffnpo rretpsa trhiinbsgo otkh,e mya kneo r epresenotrwa atriroannst ies
witrhe spteotc htae c curoarcc oym pletoeftn heceso sn teonftt hsbi oso akn ds pecifi­
caldliys claaniiymm plwiaerdr anotfmi eersc hantoarfb iitlnifetosayrps a rtipcuurl­ar
posNeo.w arramnatyby e c reaotree dx tenbdyse adl reesp resenotrwa rtiilvsleaesln e s
materiTahleas d.v iacneds tratceogniteashi enreedmi anyn obte s uitfaobyrlo eus ri tu­
atioYno.su h ould cwointashp u rlotf esswihoenraaepl p roprNieaitttehh.epe ru blisher
notrh aeu thsohrab lell i afbolaren lyo sosfp roofirta noyt hceorm merdcaimaalg es,
inclubduintno glt i mittose pde ciinacli,d ecnotnasle,q ueonrot tihadelar,m ages.
Isth ounlodbt e a ssumtehdat thm ee thods, toerci hnndiiqcuapetrsoe,rs sei nntt heids
boowki bllep rofitoarbt lheat th ewyi lnlor te siunll to ssPeassr.te sualrtneso nte ces­
sariinldyi coaftfiuvteur rees uElxtasm.p ilnet sh biso oakr feo erd ucatpiuornpaols es
onlTyh.ii ssn oats oliciotfaa ntoyir odnte orb uoyr s ell.
TheN ational Future(sNF AA)rs esqouciuirstae osts ti aottnhe a" tH ypothoert ical
simulpaetrefdo rmraenscuhela tvcsee rtianihne rleiinmtta tiUonnlsia.kna e c tual
performraenccoesr idm,u lraetseuddl ont osrt e presenttr aadciAtnlugsas.oli , n tchee
tradesn ohatac vteu ableleeynx ecuttherede ,s umlatyhs a ve uonrod veercr o mpensat­
edf otrh iem paifca tn,y o,fc ertain marketa slf aacockftl oirqsu,iS diismtuuycl.ha ted
trading pirngo egnreaarmrasael l so stuotb hjfeeac cttth atth eayr dee sigwniettdhh e
beneofifht i ndsNiogr hetp.r esenitsba etiimnoagnd t eh aatn ya ccowuniotlr li sl ikely
toa chieve oprlr oosfsietss tsoti hmeisslheao rw n."
Tom ym other Peggy swtlhilop saiecmt thslwi eosgr alcdy
frog oomdo rteh aqnu aar otfaec re ntauftresyrh l eet f
it maynw die f Ruth wbhymo et shtroooaudltg lhh e
gootdh,be a adn d utghlteiyh w so rhladd o ftefor .
v

TabloefC ontents
1.C hanSnuerlfi -nTgh Bea sCiocn c.e.p t ]
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2.B reiankWga ves 31
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3.K isosf Cthhaen nel Line 43
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4.M ajoPrr ice Levels . . . 59
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5.D erteminBianlga OnfPc oew er 75
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6.D oitnhgMe at h-S ettSitnoagpn sCd a lcultahWteavi ensg 85
...........
7.M ultTiipmlFeer ames 10 5
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8.T hRee peaCthianngan neTdlr eAnndg le 121
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9.T ruSeu pporRte sainsdt ance 113
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]0T.r aidnOgp tions 155
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IIP.u ttIiAtnll Tg og ether 181
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VlI

Introduction
Traidnigas b lesasnidnc guar Isiteas .b lesisntih nagto tnhooec rc upation
cabnem oreex ciatnirdne gw iarntdgh atnr adYionulg i.t ecraabnle lcyo me
am iilolnoaivreer noirag lth etai snavt e ry psehrooirftot id m Oent. h oet her
hantdr,a diiascn ugr bseec aiuitsms eo rleei lktyh yaotwu i mlalk seo meone
elrsielc ohbn egof re hyaovauen r ye saulc cIeitsws si .t haod uotut bhtme o st
expenesdiuvceay toicuoa non b taitnh.pe r oIcnoe fes dsu caytoiunrgs elf
it dceasnt yroouyr marrrieiaetrgmee,ny toy,uo ru roh wonmeer ship and
many tohtihtnehgrtas at ak l eei tfitmoae c quPioromero. n ey management,
ianbitloci otnyt roelm ootnieo'ansc s l uaenaldpe psrsot aotc rha dlienagd s
many dtohrweon at dot hpeo ohro upsaev efdoo lig'nos lI dmt.a yl oogrke at
tow aloknb ,u wth or eawlalnytt os tghoe re?
Myo wni ntrodtuotc htbiilsoe ns asnicdnu gr csaem feor ma m ani na
cowbhoaytt h amta dter iandsgo unlkdie c hilpadly'V.se rqyu icIk ly
realtihzaIet d w ianos v emry h eaadn tdh atiths m anp robawboluyl d
havseo lmdet hBer ookBlryindi ggfei vheanla cf h anScien.tc heeI n
havheir to cbko tttowmiw chie lter ad(iAnn ig.cwa ey o fs ayiIn gli ots t
alAlft)e r lmafiysa ts cIdo e,c isdiendIcc eo ulfidnnd' tma entyh tohda t
workteomd y s astafictitohnai,tsa m ethtohdaa tc tumaaldlmeyo n,e y
Iw oudlsidc ovoenfrero m ys.eT lhfilse atdoa n umboefor b servations
anddi scoovfeh roiwte hmsea rket woirbtke sh,at vhwewehsa y yi d to es
anmdo riemp ort,as netvlemyreatlh tohdaasct tually arwbeoa rske dt hat
on gtehoem eotftr hmye a rket. Chainosnn eoelft hSomuseretfi hnogd s,
prvoidainni gn -duenpdtehr stoaftn hdmeia nrgkt ehtyasot w ui rlalr ely
finedsl ewhere.
Asy orue adb otohykio scu a enx pteocl te atrhfneol lowing:
1.T heba sciocn ceopfCt hsa nSnuerlfi pnrge,s einnatw eady
thiaesta styou nderasntedaa nsdya ptpol y.
2.W hyc hananreeln saa t uprhaeln omaennhdoo nwt ota kfuel l
advanotftaih gse.
3.H owt ot akteh bea sciocn ceopft sC haSnunrefilann gd
cataiptu ltain ne tvoem no rpeo wermfeutlh ooftd r ading
usiandgv antcehecndi ques.
4.A ddittirointcaorkl es a dtihngege omeotftr hyme a rktehta t
adtdoy ousru ccess.
IX
Whie tlheerxei asnte sn dlaersrsoa fyi nidcataovrasi ltaoub slieen
thdiasay n adg em,o shta voen ceo mmofnalni igt;h efyia tlo a datpot
changmianrgkc eotn ditCihoannsSnu.er lf siuncgc eienad dsa pttion g
markceotn dibteicoancushs aen naeraelc st uwaelalvybe ytd h mea rket
its.Pe rlifrcaer meolvyei sns tar aliignthherte,e fcohrae npnreolvsti hdee
ulmtaitmeo mentiuncmda itor.
Despiitatsde a bpiitltaCyh,a nSnuerlfi cnogn titnoou uetspo ermrmaf noyf
thmeo spto prui lniadcationr tsuo syde,ta imaent di maegn aT.ih bee auty
of iistt h iadtto esrne'qetuy iortuo s uffret hroluagrhdg rea wdowns in
ordteorr e alap irzoeIf nficat t.i,i t ss o e fefcttihviaeitt ps r obtahbvele yr y
besatp profarobc ehg intnriandagen rtdsh owsietv he rlyi tctalpeiS toa l.
juismta gwihnaaetn e xperiaennwdce -elufdln dterda cdaenr doi tw!i th
Atlhouagp ha ralmlaedlwe i itashc tsuuarlfi tnihgs, a m iest hodology
thiaastb osuotm etvheirsnyeg r itoruasd,i ng Bpurotob fivtiaotbuhlseyl .y
morseu ccyeoshusa vaen d gtrheeay toeucrro nfiidney onucareb itloi ty
extrapa rcottfi htme,o rpel easuibrtea cbolmeSe usc.ca enscdso nfidence
ardeie rctilnlyfu enbcyye odua rb itloiu tnyd ertshtmeaa nrdk ety otuh at
arter adTion gt.h aeta ccehhn adp otfte hrbi oso wki tlalky eo sut ebpy
stetph rotuhgpehr ocoefrs esa dtihnlega nguoafg mteah rek Peutitsn .t o
pracatnii cned ivciadnu aallto m oaakkr eatn rde coghnoiwz ielsik i te ly
tob ehaavned retahcveta rtisooi utsu atthiaaotrn iasss eik,lt lho aftte n
takdeesc afdroe psae rstoodn e velop.
Chapotnebere gibnys coverincgo ntcheoepfC t hbsaa nsSniuecrl fi ng,
witnnhie teieltnlr uasttihomanatsk i eet a styoc ompreFhievdneifdr ef.e nt
entmreyt haordceso veareldow,ni gtt hw oe xiTthse.bs aes ciocn cepts
alocnaedn r amiactailmplryo avp ee rson'ss uctrcbaeudsttish in,iogs sn ly
thbee ognigi .n
Chapttwedore scrsiebveessrp aelc einfitcr y mtehteahtno hdastn hcee
basaincpdsr ovmiodreoesp porttuone nitteimrea rsak w eittl hor wi sk.
Chapttehrr deeel viensta oni mporptrainpcthe e nomtehnacotanb n e
explofriop treodIfi tt .ta alksaeco sl olsoeoarktt hpes ychoalsopgeicctasl
oft radainnhdgo wt heiym pascutc cess.
Chapftuoerre xamimnajeospr r ilceev ewlhsi,ci hn clmuudcemh o re
thajnu ssutp paonrrdte sisMtaajnoPcrre i.lc eev iemlpsah cotwt rading
decisairmoea ndsae n d ecvaecnno ntrnaodrimgcautli desloti hneaeyrs e,
discuisnds eetda il.
x
In chfiavpteth ebera laonfpc oew eirsd i scuWshsaeitdst .h see ctroe t
knowtihnbegi oafsam arkTehtae?n swiedsre tahielrfeoerdm t hmeo st
subitnlcdeai tioonun pts ot hlea ragnesdrt rosniggenra ls.
Thmea tohfC hanSnuerlfi incsgo veirnce hda pstiexr. Calacruel ations
ar eqeumierinyfto wua nttop rovsipdeec einfitacrn yed x niutm bteora s
brokbeutrth, ea yl psroo vsiedveeo rtahaled rv antaaswg eelsL .
Chapsteevrec lne vCahtaensSn uerlfi tnoag n otlheevbreyu l s imnugl tiple
timfear meassa b asfirost raddiencgi sTihoionsns te.e chnwiiqlule
dramatiinccarltelhaoyesd edo sfs uccienas nsty r adec oynosui der.
Chapetiegrbh rti nasg esr oifea sd dittieocnhanlti oqt uhteeas b tlhea t
enhantcreasd eivnegfn ur thSeri.m palnede ffectitvheep,yr ovide
addittiooontloays lo utrr adairnsget nhaawlti clult dtoosw inza eny
marktehtia sstt ublbyo rurnseitfnobg ea nalyzed.
Chapntiecni ras r ealo peeynacen ardf treera diiytno gwu i nlelv leoro k
aatc hatrhstea mwea ayga iTnr.us eu ppaonrdt resfiilesisttn ah fnecac ee
oft raditteicohnnaainlca allby usitiht sa ,ps r ovietnst eilmafef ttemire .
Practeivceacrloyln ysa otlipioadnt treervne,ar nsadac lc aetliecoranbn e
underasntedov oepdnr edibcyut seitdnih gis n valmueatbholofred e iandg
am arket.
In chaopptteirao rdtneies sn c uOspsteidoof.enf rasg reoaptp ortfuron ity
proifiyfto cua anc curiadteeynlw tyhi efarm ea rkweitgl ola nwdh eint
wibletl h eHrocwt. od ertmeitnhee kseefy ca toarroseu itnled.
Chapetleerv berni negvse riynttgho getphreiorvd isnegv etrraald ing
examptlhseahsto w thoeo fewfc tiuvseel ytm heetsheoA d sso.b elroionkg
at theo ftr reaadilidsini tgsy c uassws eealdsl, saodmdei tficaotnotarhlsa t
wilpla ctitrm adsiuncgc ess.
Thet echnainqmdue etsh doidssc uisntsi hebsdo opkr ovaic doem plete
tradpilnatgnh aitmp rovaests h sekl iolf t hues eirm proMvoerste.h an
whatn eiesdi edsdi scussots heaadnti ndivciadanud aowlph tafi ttt sh eir
partisctuyollftae rr a dinignt.iil aytBl humeto scto nsertveanctihiqvuee s
shoubleud t ilized. sFoomeren terxdiaeemsspc lriientb, he bidos o cka n
bev erayg greasnsdi vhbeae veiend entisfiuecWdhh .ia slsue ch ghi h-risk
entries adries cautss estveietdmrh,eaaa sltr l eo w-arrieesm kp hasized
througthheoinustt b ioroetk h watip lrlio vdpel enoftp yr ofittarbaldee s
withtohunete eds uocafhg gretsascitvSieoic ntsii.ya f lcolusionntg h e
consertveacthinviiesq usetser nocnogulrya ged.
Xl