Table Of ContentCHANGE AND CONTINUITY IN THE MIDDLE EAST
Also by M. E. Ahrari
ETHNIC GROUPS AND U.S. FOREIGN POLICY
OPEC-THE FAILING GIANT
THE DYNAMICS OF OIL DIPLOMACY: Conflict and Consensus
THE GULF AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY: 1980s and Beyond
THE MIDDLE EAST IN TRANSITION
THE PERSIAN GULF AFTER THE COLD WAR
Change and Continuity
in the Middle East
Conflict Resolution and Prospects
for Peace
M. E. Ahrari
Professor ofN ational Security and Strategy
Armed Forces Staff College
Norfolk, Virginia
First published in Great Britain 1996 by
MACMILLAN PRESS LTD
Houndrnills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS
and London
Companies and representatives
throughout the world
A catalogue record for this book is available
from the British Library.
ISBN 978-1-349-24656-4 ISBN 978-1-349-24654-0 (e Book)
DOl 10.1007/978-1-349-24654-0
First published in the United States of America 1996 by
ST. MARTIN'S PRESS, INC.,
Scholarly and Reference Division,
175 Fifth Avenue,
New York, N.Y. 10010
ISBN 978-0-312-12866-1
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Change and continuity in the Middle East : conflict resolution and
prospects for peace I [edited by] M. E. Ahrari.
p. em.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-312-12866-1 (cloth)
1. Middle East-Politics and govemment-1979- I. Ahrari,
MohammedE.
DS63.1.C514 1996
956.05---dc20 95-30548
CIP
© M. E. Ahrari 1996
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1996 978-0-333-63314-4
All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of
this publication may be made without written permission.
No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or
transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with
the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988,
or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying
issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 90 Tottenham Court
Road, London WlP 9HE.
Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this
publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil
claims for damages.
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 I
05 04 03 02 01 ()() 99 98 97 96
For my sister Khadija and my niece Nasreen, the two most loving ladies of
my life;
and
for all those who are struggling to bring about peaceful change in the
Middle East, while maintaining the best traditions from the past.
Contents
List of Maps, Figures and Table viii
Acknowledgements ix
Notes on the Contributors xi
List ofA bbreviations xiii
Introduction 1
M. E. Ahrari
Part I: Contemporary Dynamics of 'Old' Conflicts in the
Middle East
I The Peace Process and Its Critics: Post-Cold War
Perspectives 21
M. E. Ahrari
2 Kurdish Conflict in a Regional Perspective 47
Nader Entessar
Part II: New Dimensions of Historical Conflicts
3 Iran, the Persian Gulf and the Post-Cold War Order 77
M. E. Ahrari, Brigid Starkey, and Nader Entessar
4 Islam as a Source of Continuity and Change in the
Middle East 93
M. E. Ahrari
5 Assessing Prospects for Democracy in the Middle East 114
James H. Noyes
Part III: Stability or Instability
6 Post-Cold War Security in the GCC Region: Continuity
and Change in the 1990s 143
Brigid Starkey
7 Change and Continuity in the Middle East Arms Race 164
Aaron Karp
8 Weapons Acquisition and Arms Racing in the Middle
East 192
Ray Picquet
Conclusion: Change, Continuity and Prospects for Peace 233
M. E. Ahrari
Index 241
vii
List of Maps, Figures and
Table
Map 1 The Middle East and south-western Asia 2
Map2 The Maghreb and its neighbours 3
Map 1.1 Israel and its Arab neighbours, 1994 22
Map2.1 Kurdish lands 48
Map6.1 The Persian Gulf and environs 144
Fig. 7.1 Arms imports in the Middle East, 1981-91 170
Fig. 7.2 Arms imports by Israel and neighbouring states,
1981-91 171
Table 8.1 Proliferation programme status in the Middle East 197
viii
Acknowledgements
The original seed for this study was sown when I co-directed a confer
ence, with Professor James Daddysman of Alderson-Broaddus College, on
Contending Issues of the Middle East during the Summer of 1993. When I
originally wrote the conference proposal, the world around the Middle
East was undergoing a number of changes. So, I decided on the present
theme of change and continuity.
As can be imagined, the issue of change and continuity is almost too
slippery to handle. At the same time it is too intriguing to avoid. The Cold
War is history, and so is the Soviet Union. The most significant recent
event for the Middle East, however, was the Gulf War of 1991. Since it
was brought about as a result of an invasion of one Arab state by another,
it gave the Arab world a very serious jolt, causing serious disarray among
the Arab leadership.
The American handling of the Gulf War became a source of comfort for
the Israelis. They could see that they could depend on American military
power. The war was also convincing proof for a number of Gulf states
that they could also count on Washington for their security. These contra
dictory emotions - disarray mixed with confidence - became the stuff
from which emerged the peace negotiations concerning Arab-Israeli
conflict as a whole. One can only point to a major change related to these
negotiations - the PLO-Israeli peace process - that resulted in the estab
lishment of limited self-rule for the Palestinians. Even though no one can
yet say with any amount of certainty that this process will be successful,
its very materialization has changed the overall shape of strategic affairs.
As one ponders the nuances of this development, one also wonders
whether Syria and Israel will come to some sort of a rapprochement at any
time in the near future. At the same time, the fate of the PLO-Israeli peace
process remains very fragile and equally tenuous. Jordan and Israel, on the
other hand, appear to be well on the road to a 'warm' peace. Yet there is a
notion of continuity with the past in the Middle East in the shape of the
unremitting arms race, manifestations of religious extremism, authoritarian
rule, Saudi-Iranian rivalry, Iran's 'Janus-faced' foreign policy which causes
such consternation and confusion among its Gulf neighbours, and a continu
ing American resolve to exclude Iran from the future security arrangements
in the Persian Gulf. Anyone performing a systematic analysis of the strate-
ix
X Acknowledgements
gic affairs of the Middle East will be hard-pressed to find a bottom-line type
of statement as to which element - change or continuity - dominates the
1990s, and the situation is likely to remain the same in the next decade.
Perhaps that is one of the reasons why the Middle East is so intriguing. It
has ceaselessly baffled even those who have spent their lives living and
operating within the region. In any case, from the perspective of the United
States, this region deserves a careful and continuous watch. I hope this study
makes some contribution in that direction.
Views expressed by all the contributors in this volume are their own. I
want to express my utmost gratitude to a number of individuals who have
been an important part of my professional life at the Armed Forces Staff
College. The two individuals who deserve a special mention are Brigadier
General Marvin Esmond, Commandant of the Armed Forces Staff
College, and Colonel Leonard ('Jack') Walls, Chief-of-Staff to the
Commandant. Both went out of their way to accommodate my research
related requirements. Colonel Thomas Wilson, Dean of the Joint and
Combined Warfighting School, also encouraged me to concentrate on my
writing by working around a very demanding teaching schedule.
No reader can really understand the significance of a good editor. Only
a writer can. I have been very fortunate in having the services of a
qualified professional in Dr William K. Riley, who is our official editor at
the Staff College. I cannot count the number of occasions when I wanted
him to edit my writing 'asap'. The best thing about Bill is that he is not
only a fine editor, but he is so cheerfully accommodating in this regard. I
cannot thank him enough for his professional services.
The other members of the Editorial department, Cheryl Edwards,
Katherine ('Kat') Smith (especially Kat), and Brenda Griffith have been
very helpful in providing their services.
Thanks are due to Dr Armin Ludwig of the US Air War College for
drawing the maps.
The library staff at the Armed Forces Staff College has done its utmost
to assist me with getting inter-library loans, chasing footnotes, etc. I espe
cially wish to mention Mary Louise O'Brien and Marie Harrison. Credit is
also due toMs Gayle Nicula, Director of the AFSC Library, for maintain
ing such an efficient staff.
Last but not least, the constant cheer and support of my family and
friends has done the most to fuel my productivity. The four individuals
who should be mentioned are my father, my sister, my brother and my
niece, Nasreen. I also want to make a special mention of Judy Robbins, a
dear friend, who will never know how helpful her cheerful notes and her
love have been to me during moments of fatigue and frustration.
