Chances Are - Adventures in Probability

332 Pages·2007·2.32 MB·English

by  Michael Kaplan

PE NGUIN BOOKS
CHANCES ARE . . .
Michael Kaplan studied European history at Harvard and
Oxford. After a stint as producer/director at WGBH, he has
been an award-winning writer and filmmaker for corpora-
tions, governments, museums, and charities. He lives near
Edinburgh, Scotland, with his wife and son.
Ellen Kaplan trained as a classical archaeologist and has
taught math, biology, Greek, Latin, and history. She and her
husband, Robert, run the Math Circle, a nonprofit founda-
tion dedicated to joyous participatory learning, and are the
authors of The Art of the Infinite.
Michael Kaplan and Ellen Kaplan | Penguin Books
CHANCES ARE . . .
!

ADVENTURES IN PROBABILITY
PENGUIN BOOKS
Published by the Penguin Group
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Penguin Books Ltd, Registered Offices: 80 Strand, London WC2R 0RL, England
First published in the United States of America by Viking Penguin,
a member of Penguin Group (USA) Inc. 2006
Published in Penguin Books 2007
Copyright © Michael Kaplan and Ellen Kaplan, 2006
All rights reserved
Grateful acknowledgment is made for permission
to reprint excerpts from the following copyrighted works:
“Law Like Love” from Collected Poems by W. H. Auden. Copyright 1940
and renewed 1968 by W. H. Auden. Used by permission of Random House, Inc.
“Choruses from ‘The Rock’ ” from Collected Poems 1909–1962 by T. S. Eliot.
Copyright 1936 by Harcourt, Inc. and renewed 1964 by T. S. Eliot. Reprinted by permission of
Harcourt, Inc. and Faber and Faber Ltd.
“Hope” by Randall Jarrell. Copyright 1945 by Randall Jarrell, renewed 1990 by Mary von
Schrader Jarrell. Reprinted by permission of Mary von Schrader Jarrell.
THE LIBRARY OF CONGRESS HAS CATALOGED THE HARDCOVER EDITION AS FOLLOWS:
Kaplan, Michael.
Chances are— : adventures in probability / Michael Kaplan and Ellen Kaplan.
p. cm.
Includes index.
ISBN: 1-4406-8087-6
1. Probabilities—Popular works. I. Kaplan, Ellen. II. Title.
QA273.15.K37 2006
519.2—dc22 2005058471
The scanning, uploading and distribution of this book via the Internet or via any other means with-
out the permission of the publisher is illegal and punishable by law. Please purchase only authorized
electronic editions, and do not participate in or encourage electronic piracy of copyrighted materi-
als. Your support of the author’s rights is appreciated.
To Jane, who likes probability,
Bob, who likes chance,
and Felix, who likes risk
Acknowledgments

W
e live in wonderful times, where shared interests can make new
friends instantly across the globe. We want most of all to thank the
many people who agreed to be interviewed for this book, or who offered
their particular expertise in person or by telephone, letter, or e-mail. We
came to regard the enthusiastic help of strangers as one certainty in an
uncertain world.
Peter Ginna, friend to both generations, provided the impetus that
set the work going. Each of us relied to such a degree on the talents avail-
able in our own homes that this should be considered the work of an ex-
tended family.
Rick Kot and his associates at Viking saw the manuscript through to
its final form with enthusiasm, professionalism, and dispatch. They, like
the others, helped give the book its virtues; its faults are ours alone

Contents

Acknowledgments vii
1 |
Thinking 1
2 |
Discovering 12
3 |
Elaborating 33
4 |
Gambling 57
5 |
Securing 83
6 |
Figuring 111
7 |
Healing 149
8 |
Judging 176
9 |
Predicting 207
10 |
Fighting 238
11 |
Being 277
Index 303