Causes of Success and Failure of Stand-alone Solar Electric Systems in Rural Guatemala

398 Pages·2014·5.05 MB·English

by  H J Corsair

Causes of Success and Failure of Stand-alone Solar Electric
Systems in Rural Guatemala

by
H. J. Corsair

A dissertation submitted to Johns Hopkins University in conformity with
the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy

Baltimore, Maryland
November, 2013

© 2013 H. J. Corsair
All Rights Reserved
Abstract

The causes of success and failure of stand-alone solar electric systems in rural Guatemala may be technical,
institutional, cultural or economic. This research examines these causes using a mixed-methods approach
that includes interviews with members of poor, rural communities to which stand-alone solar electric
systems have been donated, physical inspections of these systems, and conversations with development
professionals working in rural electrification. “Success” is a complex concept, here defined as a
combination of user perception of success, utility to users, and optimality as a source of energy. Economics
are a strong driver of system success: systems generally offer users cost savings, but few income generating
opportunities; access to capital when components need replacement is a significant obstacle; and relatively
wealthier beneficiaries are better able to maintain donated systems than are their poorer neighbors. The
institutions and relationships that surround systems also influence success and failure: local institutions like
energy committees can help systems be more successful, while national and regional institutions such as
Guatemala’s weak justice system and extensive organized crime networks contribute to failure. Beneficiary
sense of “ownership” and monetary contributions to projects by beneficiaries are not contributors to system
success, while accountability to donors and ongoing donor involvement are. The quality of the design and
installed components of the physical system may have little bearing on system success.

Donors must be clear about their own and beneficiaries’ definitions of success, and must be willing to
challenge received wisdom about what will lead to more and less successful projects. Defining success as a
high rate of operable systems will tend to favor relatively wealthier beneficiaries, leading to questions of
social justice and whether energy interventions are most appropriate to those living in extreme poverty.
Further, physically interconnected energy systems such as microgrids can lead to stronger social and
institutional connections than do the physically independent systems included in this research.

Readers: Dr. Emma Cervone, Dr. Benjamin F. Hobbs, Dr. Erica Schoenberger
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Acknowledgements

I would like to express my sincerest appreciation to those who made this dissertation and my graduate
studies at The Johns Hopkins University possible:
My first acknowledgement must go to the people in rural communities in Guatemala who were willing to
talk to me, who provided the data for this research. They generously shared their experiences, as well as
many cups of coffee, tortillas, fruit and other small tokens, with no expectation of reciprocity: the
knowledge I have gained is a gift from them.
My advisors, Dr. Ben Hobbs and Dr. Erica Schoenberger have provided me invaluable support in all
aspects of this research. I lack the space here to enumerate the guidance, insights and knowledge they have
provided, and especially validation of the value of my work.
Additional faculty members have also aided and guided me in this work and in my studies, including Drs.
Catherine Norman, William Ball, Margaret Keck, Kellee Tsai, Katrina McDonald and many others. I also
acknowledge Dr. Charles Revelle, who inspired me, though sadly was not here to guide me for very long.
Dr. Debora Ley was my research partner, co-adventurer, frequent interpreter, logistical mastermind,
confidante, and partner on a quest to find a good mocha somewhere in Guatemala. Debbie’s contacts, sharp
memory, endless patience and profound understanding of the people of Guatemala helped me to survive
(sometimes literally) the long and often difficult months of field research. Further, her knowledge of this
subject matter has been invaluable to me in her help with this research and as co-author of papers and
conference presentations with me. Todo bien.
My gratitude also goes to the Guatemalan Ministry of Energy and Mines, which offered data and logistical
support for this research, as did Fundación Solar, and many other individuals and agencies in Guatemala.
My thanks go to Rhett Roberts, who has spent many hours editing, formatting and otherwise helping with
the production of this document.
Above all, I am grateful to Drew Meyers, who has earned this as much as I have.
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T ABLE OF CONTENTS
Chapter 1. Introduction ...................................................................................................... 1
1.1. Electricity in the developing world ............................................................ 1
1.2. Research questions ..................................................................................... 3
1.3. Contribution of this research ...................................................................... 5
1.4. Research setting and methodology ............................................................ 6
1.5. Scope .......................................................................................................... 8
Chapter 2. Defining Success .............................................................................................. 9
2.1. Are successful projects the right goal? .................................................... 11
2.2. Project evaluation and project success: previous and analogous work .... 13
2.2.1. Evaluation and Success ................................................................ 13
2.2.2. Evaluation and success in energy-related development ............... 14
2.2.3. Evaluation and success in water, sanitation and agriculture
development ................................................................................. 20

2.2.4. Success and evaluation in microfinance ...................................... 23
2.2.5. Success in an analogous situation: perceptions of a small hydro
project ...................................................................................................... 24

2.2.6. Conclusions concerning project evaluation and success ............. 25

2.3 Operability ............................................................................................... 26
2.3.1. Success and operability – the strange case of Chel ...................... 27
2.3.2. Chel background .......................................................................... 27
2.3.3. Solar for phones in Chel .............................................................. 29
2.3.4. Solar for home and business ........................................................ 32
2.4. User perceptions ....................................................................................... 34
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2.4.1. User perception of success ........................................................... 34
2.4.2. User perception of value .............................................................. 36
2.4.3. Users in their own words ............................................................. 37
2.5. Optimality ................................................................................................ 41
2.6. Working definition of success .................................................................. 42
2.7. Conclusions .............................................................................................. 44
Chapter 3. Context, literature review and hypotheses ............................................... 45
3.1. Context: International development and the concept of aid .................... 46
3.1.1. Sustainable development and “sustainability” ............................. 46
3.1.2. International aid ........................................................................... 47
3.1.3. International aid for development ................................................ 48
3.1.4. Donor Motivation ......................................................................... 50
3.1.5. The success and failure of aid ...................................................... 52
3.1.6. Conclusions concerning the contexts of international development
and aid ...................................................................................................... 55

3.2. Context: Electricity in Guatemala ............................................................ 55
3.2.1. The need for and advantages of renewable energy ...................... 56

3.2.2. The need for electricity ................................................................ 56
3.2.3. Rural electrification using solar photovoltaics ............................ 57
3.3. Why Guatemala? ...................................................................................... 59
3.4. Rural electrification in Guatemala in context .......................................... 60
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3.4.1. Guatemala background ................................................................ 61
3.4.2. The legacy of civil war ................................................................ 64
3.4.3. Modern Guatemala ....................................................................... 71
3.5. Hypotheses ............................................................................................... 76
3.5.1. Economic value and utility .......................................................... 76
3.5.2. Institutions and relationships ....................................................... 82
3.5.3. Characteristics and consequences ................................................ 90
3.6. Conclusions .............................................................................................. 97
Chapter 4. Methodology ............................................................................................ 98
4.1. Introduction .............................................................................................. 98
4.2. Mixed methods approach ......................................................................... 99
4.3. Sampling universe .................................................................................. 100
4.3.1. Sampling methodology: selection of communities .................... 102
4.3.2. Sampling methodology: selection of respondents and their systems
................................................................................................................. 104

4.3.3. Confidentiality and anonymity .................................................. 107
4.3.4. “Expert opinions” ....................................................................... 108
4.4. Questionnaire design .............................................................................. 109
4.4.1. Success ....................................................................................... 112
4.4.2. Economics and Utility ................................................................ 114
4.4.3. Institutions and relationship ....................................................... 117
4.4.4. Characteristics and consequences .............................................. 125
4.5. Questionnaire validation ........................................................................ 132
4.6. Project inclusion and exclusion ............................................................. 136
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4.6.1. Systems included and not included in this research ................... 137
4.6.2. Market-based versus donation-based programs ......................... 138
4.6.3. Donations and donor ownership ................................................ 139
4.6.4. Privately purchased stand-alone PV systems ............................. 139
4.6.5. Private ownership through markets ........................................... 139
4.6.6. Forms of donations and donor-ownership included in this research
................................................................................................................. 145

4.7. Research bias ......................................................................................... 153
4.7.1. Researcher bias .......................................................................... 153
4.7.2. Informant bias ............................................................................ 154
4.8. Conclusions ............................................................................................ 156
Chapter 5. Results concerning system uses and system economics ........................ 159
5.1. Introduction to the Results Chapters ...................................................... 159
5.2. Introduction to results: economics and utility results ............................ 161
5.3. Hypotheses and research questions ........................................................ 163
5.4. Economic value and poverty alleviation ................................................ 165
5.4.1. Poverty alleviation ..................................................................... 165
5.4.2. “Willingness to pay” and “ability to pay” .................................. 166
5.4.3. Changes in energy expenditures ................................................ 174
5.4.4. Cost savings and poverty alleviation ......................................... 175
5.4.5. Income opportunities ................................................................. 178
5.4.6. Observed income opportunities ................................................. 180
5.4.7. Loss of income ........................................................................... 185
5.4.8. Perception of lost income in the community ............................. 185
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5.4.9. Liquidation of the asset .............................................................. 187
5.4.10 Economic effects of community-based systems ........................ 188
5.4.11. Summary: Economic outcomes and success .............................. 189
5.5. System utility ......................................................................................... 190
5.5.1. PV as an alternative to prior energy sources .............................. 190
5.5.2. Desired applications ................................................................... 194
5.5.3. Utility and success ..................................................................... 195
5.6. PV systems in weather-related disasters ................................................ 196
5.6.1. User responses ........................................................................... 197
5.6.2. Biodiesel: a case study in the use of renewable energy in disasters
................................................................................................................. 198

5.6.3. Disaster early warning systems .................................................. 199
5.6.4. Enabling of other technologies .................................................. 201
5.6.5. Electricity and water .................................................................. 202
5.6.6. Summary: Rural energy systems in weather-related disasters ... 203
5.7. Conclusion ............................................................................................. 203
Chapter 6. Results concerning institutions and relationships .................................. 205
6.1. Introduction to results concerning institutions and relationships .......... 205
6.2. Hypotheses and research questions ........................................................ 206
6.3. Technical versus institutional issues ...................................................... 209
6.4. Institutional structures in Guatemala ..................................................... 212
6.4.1. Legal and informal governance structures ................................. 213
6.4.2. Institutional contexts .................................................................. 214
6.5. Project governance ................................................................................. 215
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6.6. Project origin and training ..................................................................... 218
6.6.1. Project origination ...................................................................... 219
6.6.2. User training ............................................................................... 223
6.6.3. Summary: Project initiation and user training and success ....... 227
6.7. Ownership, accountability and donor relationships ............................... 228
6.7.1. User contribution and ownership ............................................... 229
6.7.2. A question of accountability ...................................................... 230
6.7.3. Uncontested beneficiary-owned projects ................................... 232
6.7.4. Hybrid ownership ....................................................................... 234
6.7.5. Absent owners ............................................................................ 236
6.7.6. Implications ................................................................................ 236
6.7.7. Ownership and maintenance responsibility ............................... 238
6.7.8. Institutional arrangements between donors and beneficiaries ... 238
6.7.9. Summary: Ownership, accountability and donor relationships and
success .................................................................................................... 242

6.8. Unintended consequences ...................................................................... 243
6.8.1. Cultural and religious conflict ................................................... 245
6.8.2. Inequity and conflict within communities ................................. 248
6.8.3. Inequity and conflict between communities .............................. 252
6.8.4. Creation of social networks ....................................................... 254
6.8.5. Summary: Unintended consequences and success .................... 255
6.9. Institutional ethics .................................................................................. 256
6.9.1. Power inequity between parties ................................................. 257
6.9.2. Deceptive business practices .......................................................261
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6.9.3. Organized crime ......................................................................... 263
6.9.4. Summary: Institutional ethics and success ................................ 266
6.10. Conclusions ............................................................................................ 266
Chapter 7. Results concerning characteristics and consequences ........................... 269
7.1. Introduction to results concerning characteristics of users, communities
and systems ........................................................................................................ 269

7.2. Hypotheses and research questions ........................................................ 270
7.3. Results: Community characteristics and success ................................... 271
7.3.1. Commonalities ........................................................................... 272
7.3.2. Location, location, location ........................................................ 273
7.3.3. Micro-urbanization .................................................................... 278
7.3.4. Other donated community infrastructure and projects ............... 279
7.3.5. Summary: Community characteristics and success ................... 281
7.4. Results: User characteristics and success .............................................. 282
7.4.1. Ethnicity ..................................................................................... 283
7.4.2. Gender ........................................................................................ 287
7.4.3. Age ............................................................................................. 290
7.4.4. Summary: User characteristics and success ............................... 291
7.5. Results: Systems characteristics and success ......................................... 292
7.5.1. Codes and standards ................................................................... 292
7.5.2. Quality of components, design, and installation ........................ 293
7.5.3. System longevity ........................................................................ 302
7.5.4. Summary: System characteristics and success .......................... 303
7.6. Unintended consequences ...................................................................... 304
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