Causality: models, reasoning, and inference

487 Pages·2009·6.013 MB·English

by  Pearl, Judea

CAUSALITY
Models, Reasoning, and Inference
Second Edition
Written by one of the preeminent researchers in the field, this book provides a
comprehensive exposition of modern analysis of causation. It shows how causal-
ity has grown from a nebulous concept into a mathematical theory with significant
applications in the fields of statistics,artificial intelligence,economics,philoso-
phy,cognitive science,and the health and social sciences.
Judea Pearl presents a comprehensive theory of causality which unifies the prob-
abilistic, manipulative, counterfactual, and structural approaches to causation and
offers simple mathematicaltools for studying the relationships between causal con-
nections and statistical associations. The book opens the way for including causal
analysis in the standard curricula of statistics, artificial intelligence, business, epi-
demiology,social sciences,and economics. Students in these fields will find natural
models, simple inferential procedures, and precise mathematical definitions of
causal concepts that traditional texts have evaded or made unduly complicated.
The first edition of Causalityhas led to a paradigmatic change in the way that
causality is treated in statistics,philosophy,computer science,social science,and
economics. Cited in more than 2,800 scientific publications,it continues to liber-
ate scientists from the traditional molds of statistical thinking. In this revised edition,
Pearl elucidates thorny issues, answers readers’questions, and offers a panoramic
view of recent advances in this field of research.
Causality will be of interest to students and professionals in a wide variety of
fields. Anyone who wishes to elucidate meaningful relationships from data,pre-
dict effects of actions and policies, assess explanations of reported events, or
form theories of causal understanding and causal speech will find this book stim-
ulating and invaluable.
Judea Pearl is professor of computer science and statistics at the University of
California,Los Angeles,where he directs the Cognitive Systems Laboratory and
conducts research in artificial intelligence, human reasoning, and philosophy of
science. The author of Heuristicsand Probabilistic Reasoning,he is a member of
the National Academy of Engineering and a Founding Fellow of the American
Association for Artificial Intelligence. Dr. Pearl is the recipient of the IJCAI
Research Excellence Award for 1999, the London School of Economics Lakatos
Award for 2001,and the ACM Alan Newell Award for 2004. In 2008,he received
the Benjamin Franklin Medal for computer and cognitive science from the Franklin
Institute.
Commendation for the First Edition
“Judea Pearl’s previous book, Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems, was ar-
guably the most influential book in Artificial Intelligence in the past decade,setting the
stage for much of the current activity in probabilistic reasoning. In this book,Pearl turns
his attention to causality,boldly arguing for the primacy of a notion long ignored in sta-
tistics and misunderstood and mistrusted in other disciplines,from physics to economics.
He demystifies the notion,clarifies the basic concepts in terms of graphical models,and
explains the source of many misunderstandings. This book should prove invaluable to re-
searchers in artificial intelligence, statistics, economics, epidemiology, and philosophy,
and,indeed,all those interested in the fundamental notion of causality. It may well prove
to be one of the most influential books of the next decade.”
– Joseph Halpern,Computer Science Department,Cornell University
“This lucidly written book is full of inspiration and novel ideas that bring clarity to areas
where confusion has prevailed,in particular concerning causal interpretation of structural
equation systems, but also on concepts such as counterfactual reasoning and the general
relation between causal thinking and graphical models. Finally the world can get a co-
herent exposition of these ideas that Judea Pearl has developed over a number of years
andpresented in a flurry of controversial yet illuminating articles.”
– Steffen L. Lauritzen,Department of Mathematics,Aalborg University
“Judea Pearl’s new book,Causality:Models,Reasoning,and Inference,is an outstand-
ing contribution to the causality literature. It will be especially useful to students and
practitioners of economics interested in policy analysis.”
– Halbert White,Professor of Economics,University of California,San Diego
“This book fulfills a long-standing need for a rigorous yet accessible treatise on the math-
ematics of causal inference. Judea Pearl has done a masterful job of describing the most
important approaches and displaying their underlying logical unity. The book deserves
to be read by all statisticians and scientists who use nonexperimental data to study cau-
sation,and would serve well as a graduate or advanced undergraduate course text.”
– Sander Greenland,School of Public Health,University of California,Los Angeles
“Judea Pearl has written an account of recent advances in the modeling of probability
andcause,substantialpartsofwhichareduetohimandhisco-workers.Thisisessential
readingforanyoneinterestedincausality.”
– Brian Skryms,Department of Philosophy,University of California,Irvine
CAUSALITY
Models, Reasoning, and Inference
Second Edition
Judea Pearl
University of California,Los Angeles
CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS
Cambridge,New York,Melbourne,Madrid,Cape Town,Singapore,
São Paulo,Delhi,Dubai,Tokyo
CambridgeUniversity Press
32 Avenue of the Americas,New York,NY 10013-2473,USA
www.cambridge.org
Information on this title:www.cambridge.org/9780521895606
©Judea Pearl 2000,2009
This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception
and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements,
no reproduction of any part may take place without the written
permission of Cambridge University Press.
First published 2000
8th printing 2008
Second edition 2009
Printed in the United States of America
A catalog record for this publication is available from the British Library.
The Library of Congress has cataloged the first edition as follows:
Pearl,Judea
Causality :models,reasoning,and inference / Judea Pearl.
p. cm.
ISBN 0-521-77362-8 (hardback)
1. Causation. 2. Probabilities. I. Title.
BD541.P43 2000
122 – dc21 99-042108
ISBN 978-0-521-89560-6 Hardback
Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs for external
or third-party Internet websites referred to in this publication and does not guarantee that any content
on such websites is,or will remain,accurate or appropriate.
Development of Western science is based on two
great achievements: the invention of the formal
logical system (in Euclidean geometry) by the
Greek philosophers, and the discovery of the
possibility to find out causal relationships by
systematic experiment (during the Renaissance).
Albert Einstein (1953)
TO DANNY
AND THE GLOWING AUDACITY OF GOODNESS

Contents
Preface to the First Edition pagexv
Preface to the Second Edition xix
1 Introduction to Probabilities,Graphs,and Causal Models 1
1.1 Introduction to Probability Theory 1
1.1.1 Why Probabilities? 1
1.1.2 Basic Concepts in Probability Theory 2
1.1.3 Combining Predictive and Diagnostic Supports 6
1.1.4 Random Variables and Expectations 8
1.1.5 Conditional Independence and Graphoids 11
1.2 Graphs and Probabilities 12
1.2.1 Graphical Notation and Terminology 12
1.2.2 Bayesian Networks 13
1.2.3 The d-Separation Criterion 16
1.2.4 Inference with Bayesian Networks 20
1.3 Causal Bayesian Networks 21
1.3.1 Causal Networks as Oracles for Interventions 22
1.3.2 Causal Relationships and Their Stability 24
1.4 Functional Causal Models 26
1.4.1 Structural Equations 27
1.4.2 Probabilistic Predictions in Causal Models 30
1.4.3 Interventions and Causal Effects in Functional Models 32
1.4.4 Counterfactuals in Functional Models 33
1.5 Causal versus Statistical Terminology 38
2 A Theory of Inferred Causation 41
2.1 Introduction – The Basic Intuitions 42
2.2 The Causal Discovery Framework 43
2.3 Model Preference (Occam’s Razor) 45
2.4 Stable Distributions 48
2.5 Recovering DAG Structures 49
2.6 Recovering Latent Structures 51
vii
viii Contents
2.7 Local Criteria for Inferring Causal Relations 54
2.8 Nontemporal Causation and Statistical Time 57
2.9 Conclusions 59
2.9.1 On Minimality,Markov,and Stability 61
3 Causal Diagrams and the Identification of Causal Effects 65
3.1 Introduction 66
3.2 Intervention in Markovian Models 68
3.2.1 Graphs as Models of Interventions 68
3.2.2 Interventions as Variables 70
3.2.3 Computing the Effect of Interventions 72
3.2.4 Identification of Causal Quantities 77
3.3 Controlling Confounding Bias 78
3.3.1 The Back-Door Criterion 79
3.3.2 The Front-Door Criterion 81
3.3.3 Example:Smoking and the Genotype Theory 83
3.4 A Calculus of Intervention 85
3.4.1 Preliminary Notation 85
3.4.2 Inference Rules 85
3.4.3 Symbolic Derivation of Causal Effects:An Example 86
3.4.4 Causal Inference by Surrogate Experiments 88
3.5 Graphical Tests of Identifiability 89
3.5.1 Identifying Models 91
3.5.2 Nonidentifying Models 93
3.6 Discussion 94
3.6.1 Qualifications and Extensions 94
3.6.2 Diagrams as a Mathematical Language 96
3.6.3 Translation from Graphs to Potential Outcomes 98
3.6.4 Relations to Robins’s G-Estimation 102
4 Actions,Plans,and Direct Effects 107
4.1 Introduction 108
4.1.1 Actions,Acts,and Probabilities 108
4.1.2 Actions in Decision Analysis 110
4.1.3 Actions and Counterfactuals 112
4.2 Conditional Actions and Stochastic Policies 113
4.3 When Is the Effect of an Action Identifiable? 114
4.3.1 Graphical Conditions for Identification 114
4.3.2 Remarks on Efficiency 116
4.3.3 Deriving a Closed-Form Expression
for Control Queries 117
4.3.4 Summary 118
4.4 The Identification of Dynamic Plans 118
4.4.1 Motivation 118
4.4.2 Plan Identification:Notation and Assumptions 120