Capturing Upside Risk: Finding and Managing Opportunities in Projects

301 Pages·2019·5.162 MB·\301

by  David Hillson (Author)

Capturing
Upside Risk
Finding and Managing
Opportunities in Projects

Capturing
Upside Risk
Finding and Managing
Opportunities in Projects
David Hillson
Boca Raton London New York
CRC Press is an imprint of the
Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
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Contents
Contents vii
List of Figures xv
List of Tables xix
Foreword xxi
Preface xxv
About the Author xxix
SECTION A—WHY OPPORTUNITIES MATTER 1
Chapter 1: What Are Opportunities? 3
First principles 3
Uncertainty is everywhere 4
Not all uncertainty matters 4
Not all uncertainties that matter are bad 5
Risk is “uncertainty that matters” 6
The definition debate 8
The great divide 9
Reasons for reluctance 16
Ignorance 17
Language 18
Culture 18
Psychology 21
Inertia 22
vii
viii Capturing Upside Risk: Finding and Managing Opportunities in Projects
Winning the war 23
Education and demonstration 23
Persistence 24
Memetics 24
Emotional intelligence 25
Support 26
From theory to practice 27
Chapter 2: What Are Opportunities in Projects? 29
Why projects are risky 29
Common characteristics 30
Deliberate design 31
External environment 31
Synonym confusion 32
Links between opportunities and threats 33
Risks and risk 34
All projects include opportunities 36
Chapter 3: How to Manage Project Opportunities 39
Elements of a risk management process 40
Nine structuring questions 40
Tailoring the risk process 42
Use a common process for threats and opportunities 45
Nine structuring questions for opportunities 45
Benefits of integration 47
Introduction to Section B 48
SECTION B—MANAGING PROJECT OPPORTUNITIES 51
Chapter 4: Setting the Scene for Opportunity Management 53
Purpose and principles of risk management planning 53
Define objectives at risk and scope of risk process 54
Reflect risk appetite of key stakeholders in measurable
risk thresholds 55
Tailor risk process to match the risk challenge of the project 55
Summary 56
The typical risk management plan 56
Purpose 56
Contents 57
Understanding risk appetite and risk thresholds 63
Defining risk assessment criteria 65
Contents ix
Defining risk assessment framework 70
Summary and reflection questions 73
Reflection questions 73
The next step (“Now we’ve defined the process, where are
the opportunities?”) 74
Chapter 5: Finding Opportunities 75
Purpose and principles of risk identification 75
All risks are uncertain 77
Each risk must be linked to at least one objective 77
Consider different time perspectives 78
Use more than one risk identification technique 79
Include multiple perspectives 79
Consider all potential sources of risk 79
Repeat risk identification throughout the project 80
Summary 81
Separating risk from non-risk using risk metalanguage 81
Typical techniques for identifying threats 82
Past-focused techniques 83
Present-focused techniques 83
Future-focused techniques 84
Modifying threat techniques to find opportunities 84
Modifying past-focused techniques 84
Modifying present-focused techniques 85
Modifying future-focused techniques 89
Using “two-dimensional techniques” 90
SWOT Analysis 91
Force-Field Analysis 93
Using risk metalanguage to identify opportunities 95
Separate or together? 96
A mindset for opportunity 97
Write it down 99
Summary and reflection questions 100
Reflection questions 101
The next step (“Now we’ve identified the opportunities,
which ones are most important?”) 101
Chapter 6: Picking Winners 103
Purpose and principles of qualitative risk assessment 103
Use consistent and objective assessment framework 104