Table Of ContentJWCL152_fm_i-xxviii.qxd 9/24/09 9:43 AM Page iv
� Students achieve concept
mastery in a rich,
structured environment
that’s available 24/7
From multiple study paths, to self-assessment, to a wealth of interactive
visual and audio resources, WileyPLUS gives you everything you need to
personalize the teaching and learning experience.
With WileyPLUS:
»Find out how to MAKE IT YOURS »
This online teaching and learning environment
integrates the entire digital textbook with the
most effective instructor and student resources
���������������������������
� Instructors personalize and manage
their course more effectively with
assessment, assignments, grade
tracking, and more
� manage time better
��study smarter
� save money
www.wileyplus.com
JWCL152_fm_i-xxviii.qxd 9/25/09 10:58 AM Page i
MAKE IT YOURS!
ALL THE HELP, RESOURCES, AND PERSONAL SUPPORT
YOU AND YOUR STUDENTS NEED!
Technical Support 24/7
FAQs, online chat,
and phone support
www.wileyplus.com/support
Student support from an
experienced student user
Ask your local representative
for details!
Your WileyPLUS
Account Manager
Training and implementation support
www.wileyplus.com/accountmanager
Collaborate with your colleagues,
find a mentor, attend virtual and live
events, and view resources
www.WhereFacultyConnect.com
Pre-loaded, ready-to-use
assignments and presentations
www.wiley.com/college/quickstart
2-Minute Tutorials and all
of the resources you & your
students need to get started
www.wileyplus.com/firstday
JWCL152_fm_i-xxviii.qxd 9/25/09 10:58 AM Page ii
6 T H
E D I T I O N
Business Statistics
For Contemporary
Decision Making
JWCL152_fm_i-xxviii.qxd 9/24/09 9:43 AM Page iii
JWCL152_fm_i-xxviii.qxd 9/24/09 9:43 AM Page iv
6 T H
E D I T I O N
Business Statistics
For Contemporary
Decision Making
Ken Black
University of Houston—Clear Lake
John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
JWCL152_fm_i-xxviii.qxd 9/24/09 9:43 AM Page v
Vice President & Publisher
George Hoffman
Acquisitions Editor
Franny Kelly
Assistant Editor
Maria Guarascio
Executive Marketing Manager
Amy Scholz
Editorial Assistant
Emily McGee
Production Manager
Dorothy Sinclair
Senior Production Editor
Sandra Dumas
Senior Designer
Madelyn Lesure
Executive Media Editor
Allison Morris
Photo Department Manager
Hilary Newman
Production Management Services
Aptara
Associate Media Editor
Elena Santa Maria
This book was typeset in 10/12 Minion at Aptara®, Inc. and printed and bound by R. R. Donnelley/
Jefferson City. The cover was printed by R. R. Donnelley/Jefferson City.
The paper in this book was manufactured by a mill whose forest management programs include sustained yield
harvesting of its timberlands. Sustained yield harvesting principles ensure that the number of trees cut each
year does not exceed the amount of new growth.
This book is printed on acid-free paper. �
Copyright © 2010, 2008, 2006, 2004 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by
any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying recording, scanning or otherwise, except as permitted under
Sections 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the
Publisher or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center,
222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, (978) 750-8400, fax (978) 646-8600. Requests to the Publisher for
permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street,
Hoboken, NJ 07030-5774, (201) 748-6011, fax (201) 748-6008.
Evaluation copies are provided to qualified academics and professionals for review purposes only, for use in
their courses during the next academic year. These copies are licensed and may not be sold or transferred to
a third party. Upon completion of the review period, please return the evaluation copy to Wiley. Return
instructions and a free of charge return shipping label are available at www.wiley.com/go/returnlabel. Outside
of the United States, please contact your local representative.
Black, Ken
Business Statistics: For Contemporary Decision Making, Sixth Edition
ISBN 13
978-0470-40901-5
ISBN 13
978-0470-55667-2
Printed in the United States of America.
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
JWCL152_fm_i-xxviii.qxd 9/24/09 9:43 AM Page vi
For Carolyn, Caycee, and Wendi
JWCL152_fm_i-xxviii.qxd 9/24/09 9:43 AM Page vii
viii
BRIEF CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION
Introduction to Statistics
2
Charts and Graphs
16
Descriptive Statistics
46
Probability
92
DISTRIBUTIONS AND SAMPLING
Discrete Distributions
136
Continuous Distributions
178
Sampling and Sampling Distributions
216
MAKING INFERENCES ABOUT POPULATION
PARAMETERS
Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations
250
Statistical Inference: Hypothesis Testing for Single
Populations
288
Statistical Inferences About Two Populations
342
Analysis of Variance and Design of Experiments
402
REGRESSION ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING
Simple Regression Analysis and Correlation
464
Multiple Regression Analysis
516
Building Multiple Regression Models
546
Time-Series Forecasting and Index Numbers
588
NONPARAMETRIC STATISTICS AND QUALITY
Analysis of Categorical Data
644
Nonparametric Statistics
670
Statistical Quality Control
720
APPENDICES
Tables
765
Answers to Selected Odd-Numbered Quantitative
Problems
805
GLOSSARY
815
INDEX
825
The following materials are available at www.wiley.com/college/black
Decision Analysis
C19-2
Summation Notation
S1-1
Derivation of Simple Regression Formulas for Slope
and y Intercept
S2-1
Advanced Exponential Smoothing
S3-1
UNIT I
UNIT II
UNIT III
UNIT IV
UNIT V
1
2
3
4
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
A
B
19
Supplement 1
Supplement 2
Supplement 3
5
6
7
JWCL152_fm_i-xxviii.qxd 10/3/09 11:11 AM Page viii
ix
UNIT I
C O N T E N T S
Preface
xvii
About the Author
xxvii
INTRODUCTION
1
Introduction to Statistics
2
Decision Dilemma: Statistics Describe the State
of Business in India’s Countryside
3
1.1
Statistics in Business
4
1.2
Basic Statistical Concepts
5
1.3
Data Measurement 7
Nominal Level
7
Ordinal Level
8
Interval Level
8
Ratio Level
9
Comparison of the Four Levels of Data
9
Statistical Analysis Using the Computer:
Excel and Minitab
11
Summary
12
Key Terms
12
Supplementary Problems
12
Analyzing the Databases
13
Case: DiGiorno Pizza: Introducing a Frozen Pizza to
Compete with Carry-Out
15
2
Charts and Graphs
16
Decision Dilemma: Energy Consumption Around
the World
17
2.1
Frequency Distributions
18
Class Midpoint
18
Relative Frequency
18
Cumulative Frequency
19
2.2
Quantitative Data Graphs
21
Histograms
21
Using Histograms to Get an Initial Overview
of the Data
23
Frequency Polygons
23
Ogives
24
Dot Plots
25
Stem-and-Leaf Plots
25
2.3
Qualitative Data Graphs
27
Pie Charts
27
Bar Graphs
28
Pareto Charts
30
2.4
Graphical Depiction of Two-Variable
Numerical Data: Scatter Plots
33
Summary
36
Key Terms
36
Supplementary Problems
36
Analyzing the Databases
40
Case: Soap Companies Do Battle
40
Using the Computer
41
3
Descriptive Statistics
46
Decision Dilemma: Laundry Statistics 47
3.1
Measures of Central Tendency:
Ungrouped Data
47
Mode
48
Median
48
Mean
49
Percentiles
51
Steps in Determining the Location of
a Percentile
51
Quartiles
52
3.2
Measures of Variability: Ungrouped
Data
55
Range
55
Interquartile Range
56
Mean Absolute Deviation, Variance, and
Standard Deviation
57
Mean Absolute Deviation
58
Variance
59
Standard Deviation
60
Meaning of Standard Deviation
60
Empirical Rule
60
Chebyshev’s Theorem
62
Population Versus Sample Variance and
Standard Deviation
63
Computational Formulas for Variance and
Standard Deviation
64
z Scores
66
Coefficient of Variation
67
3.3
Measures of Central Tendency and
Variability: Grouped Data
70
Measures of Central Tendency
70
Mean
70
Median
71
Mode
72
Measures of Variability
72
3.4
Measures of Shape
77
Skewness
77
Skewness and the Relationship of the Mean,
Median, and Mode
77
Coefficient of Skewness
77
Kurtosis
78
Box-and-Whisker Plots
78
JWCL152_fm_i-xxviii.qxd 9/24/09 9:43 AM Page ix
x
Contents
DISTRIBUTIONS AND SAMPLING
5
Discrete Distributions
136
Decision Dilemma: Life with a Cell Phone
137
5.1
Discrete Versus Continuous Distributions
138
5.2
Describing a Discrete Distribution
139
Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation of
Discrete Distributions
140
Mean or Expected Value
140
Variance and Standard Deviation of a
Discrete Distribution
140
5.3
Binomial Distribution
143
Solving a Binomial Problem
144
Using the Binomial Table
147
Using the Computer to Produce a Binomial
Distribution
148
Mean and Standard Deviation of a Binomial
Distribution
149
Graphing Binomial Distributions
150
5.4
Poisson Distribution
154
Working Poisson Problems by Formula
156
Using the Poisson Tables
157
Mean and Standard Deviation of a Poisson
Distribution
158
Graphing Poisson Distributions
159
Using the Computer to Generate Poisson
Distributions
159
Approximating Binomial Problems by the
Poisson Distribution
160
5.5
Hypergeometric Distribution
164
Using the Computer to Solve for Hypergeometric
Distribution Probabilities
166
Summary
169
Key Terms
169
Formulas
170
Supplementary Problems
170
Analyzing the Databases
175
Case: Kodak Transitions Well into the Digital
Camera Market
175
Using the Computer
176
6
Continuous Distributions
178
Decision Dilemma: The Cost of Human Resources
179
6.1
The Uniform Distribution
179
Determining Probabilities in a Uniform
Distribution
181
Using the Computer to Solve for Uniform
Distribution Probabilities
183
6.2
Normal Distribution
184
History of the Normal Distribution
185
3.5
Descriptive Statistics on the Computer
81
Summary
83
Key Terms
84
Formulas
84
Supplementary Problems
85
Analyzing the Databases
89
Case: Coca-Cola Goes Small in Russia
89
Using the Computer
91
4
Probability
92
Decision Dilemma: Equity of the Sexes in the
Workplace
93
4.1
Introduction to Probability
94
4.2
Methods of Assigning Probabilities
94
Classical Method of Assigning Probabilities
94
Relative Frequency of Occurrence
95
Subjective Probability
96
4.3
Structure of Probability
96
Experiment
96
Event 96
Elementary Events
96
Sample Space
97
Unions and Intersections
97
Mutually Exclusive Events
98
Independent Events
98
Collectively Exhaustive Events
99
Complementary Events
99
Counting the Possibilities
99
The mn Counting Rule
99
Sampling from a Population with
Replacement
100
Combinations: Sampling from a Population
Without Replacement
100
4.4
Marginal, Union, Joint, and Conditional
Probabilities
101
4.5
Addition Laws
103
Probability Matrices
104
Complement of a Union
107
Special Law of Addition
108
4.6
Multiplication Laws
111
General Law of Multiplication
111
Special Law of Multiplication
113
4.7
Conditional Probability
116
Independent Events
119
4.8
Revision of Probabilities: Bayes’ Rule
123
Summary
128
Key Terms
128
Formulas
129
Supplementary Problems
129
Analyzing the Databases
132
Case: Colgate-Palmolive Makes a “Total” Effort
133
UNIT II
JWCL152_fm_i-xxviii.qxd 9/24/09 9:43 AM Page x
Contents xi
MAKING INFERENCES ABOUT
POPULATION PARAMETERS
8
Statistical Inference: Estimation
for Single Populations
250
Decision Dilemma: Compensation for
Purchasing Managers
251
8.1
Estimating the Population Mean Using the
z Statistic (� Known)
253
Finite Correction Factor
256
Estimating the Population Mean Using the z
Statistic when the Sample Size Is Small
257
Using the Computer to Construct z Confidence
Intervals for the Mean
258
8.2
Estimating the Population Mean Using the
t Statistic (� Unknown)
260
The t Distribution
261
Robustness
261
Characteristics of the t Distribution
261
Reading the t Distribution Table
261
Confidence Intervals to Estimate the Population
Mean Using the t Statistic
262
Using the Computer to Construct t Confidence
Intervals for the Mean
264
8.3
Estimating the Population Proportion
267
Using the Computer to Construct Confidence
Intervals of the Population Proportion
269
8.4
Estimating the Population Variance
271
8.5
Estimating Sample Size
275
Sample Size when Estimating �
275
Determining Sample Size when Estimating p
277
Summary
280
Key Terms
280
Formulas
280
Supplementary Problems
281
Analyzing the Databases
284
Case: Thermatrix
284
Using the Computer
285
9
Statistical Inference: Hypothesis
Testing for Single Populations
288
Decision Dilemma: Word-of-Mouth Business Referrals
and Influentials
289
9.1
Introduction to Hypothesis Testing
290
Types of Hypotheses
291
Research Hypotheses
291
Probability Density Function of the Normal
Distribution
185
Standardized Normal Distribution
186
Solving Normal Curve Problems
187
Using the Computer to Solve for Normal
Distribution Probabilities
194
6.3
Using the Normal Curve to Approximate
Binomial Distribution Problems
196
Correcting for Continuity
198
6.4
Exponential Distribution
202
Probabilities of the Exponential
Distribution
203
Using the Computer to Determine Exponential
Distribution Probabilities
205
Summary
207
Key Terms
208
Formulas
208
Supplementary Problems
208
Analyzing the Databases
212
Case: Mercedes Goes After Younger
Buyers
212
Using the Computer
213
7
Sampling and Sampling
Distributions
216
Decision Dilemma: What Is the Attitude of
Maquiladora Workers?
217
7.1
Sampling
217
Reasons for Sampling
218
Reasons for Taking a Census
218
Frame
219
Random Versus Nonrandom
Sampling
219
Random Sampling Techniques
220
Simple Random Sampling
220
Stratified Random Sampling
221
Systematic Sampling
222
Cluster (or Area) Sampling
223
Nonrandom Sampling
224
Convenience Sampling
224
Judgment Sampling
225
Quota Sampling
225
Snowball Sampling
226
Sampling Error
226
Nonsampling Errors
226
7.2
Sampling Distribution of �
x
228
Sampling from a Finite Population
235
7.3
Sampling Distribution of ˆp
237
Summary
241
Key Terms
242
Formulas
242
Supplementary Problems
242
Analyzing the Databases
245
Case: Shell Attempts to Return to Premiere Status
245
Using the Computer
246
UNIT III
JWCL152_fm_i-xxviii.qxd 9/24/09 9:43 AM Page xi
xii
Contents
Statistical Hypotheses
292
Substantive Hypotheses
294
Using the HTAB System to Test Hypotheses
295
Rejection and Nonrejection Regions
297
Type I and Type II Errors
298
9.2
Testing Hypotheses About a Population
Mean Using the z Statistic (� Known)
299
Testing the Mean with a Finite Population
301
Using the p-Value to Test Hypotheses
302
Using the Critical Value Method to
Test Hypotheses
303
Using the Computer to Test Hypotheses About a
Population Mean Using the z Statistic
306
9.3
Testing Hypotheses About a
Population Mean Using the t Statistic
(� Unknown)
308
Using the Computer to Test Hypotheses About a
Population Mean Using the t Test
312
9.4
Testing Hypotheses About a Proportion
315
Using the Computer to Test Hypotheses About a
Population Proportion
319
9.5
Testing Hypotheses About a Variance
321
9.6
Solving for Type II Errors
324
Some Observations About Type II Errors
329
Operating Characteristic and Power Curves
329
Effect of Increasing Sample Size on the
Rejection Limits
331
Summary
334
Key Terms
335
Formulas
335
Supplementary Problems
335
Analyzing the Databases
338
Case: Frito-Lay Targets the Hispanic Market
339
Using the Computer
340
10
Statistical Inferences About
Two Populations
342
Decision Dilemma: Online Shopping
343
10.1
Hypothesis Testing and Confidence Intervals
About the Difference in Two Means Using the
z Statistic (Population Variances Known)
346
Hypothesis Testing
347
Confidence Intervals
350
Using the Computer to Test Hypotheses About
the Difference in Two Population Means
Using the z Test
352
10.2
Hypothesis Testing and Confidence Intervals
About the Difference in Two Means:
Independent Samples and Population
Variances Unknown
355
Hypothesis Testing
355
Using the Computer to Test Hypotheses and
Construct Confidence Intervals About the
Difference in Two Population Means Using the
t Test
357
Confidence Intervals
360
10.3
Statistical Inferences for Two Related
Populations
365
Hypothesis Testing
365
Using the Computer to Make Statistical Inferences
About Two Related Populations
367
Confidence Intervals
370
10.4
Statistical Inferences About Two Population
Proportions, p1 � p2
375
Hypothesis Testing
375
Confidence Intervals
379
Using the Computer to Analyze the Difference
in Two Proportions
380
10.5
Testing Hypotheses About Two Population
Variances
382
Using the Computer to Test Hypotheses About
Two Population Variances
386
Summary
391
Key Terms
391
Formulas
391
Supplementary Problems
392
Analyzing the Databases
397
Case: Seitz Corporation: Producing Quality Gear-Driven and
Linear-Motion Products
397
Using the Computer
398
11
Analysis of Variance and Design
of Experiments
402
Decision Dilemma: Job and Career Satisfaction of Foreign
Self-Initiated Expatriates
403
11.1
Introduction to Design of Experiments
404
11.2
The Completely Randomized Design
(One-Way ANOVA)
406
One-Way Analysis of Variance
407
Reading the F Distribution Table
411
Using the Computer for One-Way ANOVA
411
Comparison of F and t Values
412
11.3
Multiple Comparison Tests
418
Tukey’s Honestly Significant Difference (HSD) Test:
The Case of Equal Sample Sizes
418
Using the Computer to Do Multiple
Comparisons
420
Tukey-Kramer Procedure: The Case of Unequal
Sample Sizes
422
11.4
The Randomized Block Design
426
Using the Computer to Analyze Randomized Block
Designs
430
11.5
A Factorial Design (Two-Way ANOVA)
436
Advantages of the Factorial Design
436
Factorial Designs with Two Treatments
437
Applications
437
JWCL152_fm_i-xxviii.qxd 9/24/09 9:43 AM Page xii
Contents xiii
REGRESSION ANALYSIS AND
FORECASTING
12
Simple Regression Analysis
and Correlation
464
Decision Dilemma: Predicting International Hourly
Wages by the Price of a Big Mac
465
12.1
Correlation
466
12.2
Introduction to Simple Regression Analysis
469
12.3
Determining the Equation of
the Regression Line
470
12.4
Residual Analysis
477
Using Residuals to Test the Assumptions of the
Regression Model
479
Using the Computer for Residual Analysis
480
12.5
Standard Error of the Estimate
484
12.6
Coefficient of Determination
487
Relationship Between r and r 2
489
12.7
Hypothesis Tests for the Slope of the
Regression Model and Testing the Overall
Model
489
Testing the Slope
489
Testing the Overall Model
493
12.8
Estimation
494
Confidence Intervals to Estimate the Conditional
Mean of y: �y| x
494
Prediction Intervals to Estimate a Single
Value of y
495
12.9
Using Regression to Develop a Forecasting
Trend Line
498
Determining the Equation of the Trend Line
499
Forecasting Using the Equation of the
Trend Line
500
Alternate Coding for Time Periods
501
12.10 Interpreting the Output
504
Summary
508
Key Terms
509
Formulas
509
Supplementary Problems
509
Analyzing the Databases
513
Case: Delta Wire Uses Training as a Weapon
513
Using the Computer
515
13
Multiple Regression Analysis
516
Decision Dilemma: Are You Going to Hate Your
New Job?
517
13.1
The Multiple Regression Model
518
Multiple Regression Model with Two Independent
Variables (First Order)
519
Determining the Multiple Regression Equation
520
A Multiple Regression Model
520
13.2
Significance Tests of the Regression Model
and Its Coefficients
525
Testing the Overall Model
525
Significance Tests of the Regression
Coefficients
527
13.3
Residuals, Standard Error of the Estimate,
and R 2
530
Residuals
530
SSE and Standard Error of the Estimate
531
Coefficient of Multiple Determination (R 2)
532
Adjusted R2
533
13.4
Interpreting Multiple Regression Computer
Output
535
A Reexamination of the Multiple
Regression Output
535
Summary
539
Key Terms
540
Formulas
540
Supplementary Problems
540
Analyzing the Databases
543
Case: Starbucks Introduces Debit Card
543
Using the Computer
544
14
Building Multiple Regression
Models
546
Decision Dilemma: Determining Compensation
for CEOs
547
14.1
Nonlinear Models: Mathematical
Transformation
548
Polynomial Regression
548
Tukey’s Ladder of Transformations
551
Regression Models with Interaction
552
Model Transformation
554
14.2
Indicator (Dummy) Variables
560
14.3
Model-Building: Search Procedures
566
Search Procedures
568
All Possible Regressions
568
Stepwise Regression
568
Statistically Testing the Factorial Design
438
Interaction
439
Using a Computer to Do a Two-Way ANOVA
444
Summary
453
Key Terms
454
Formulas
454
Supplementary Problems
455
Analyzing the Databases
458
Case: The Clarkson Company: A Division of Tyco
International
459
Using the Computer
460
UNIT IV
JWCL152_fm_i-xxviii.qxd 10/3/09 11:00 AM Page xiii
