Bureau of Labor Statistics... USDL-94-12... U.S. Department of Labor... Thursday, January 13, 1994

16 Pages·1994·6.1 MB·English

by  United States Department of Labor

— COMPLETED LA Yh
United States
Department
of Labor
Bureau of Labor Statistics Washington, D.C. 20212
FOR TECHNICAL INFORMATION:
? Patrick C. Jackman [phone] USDL-94-12
TRANSMISSION OF MATERIAL IN
CPI Quickline: [phone] THIS RELEASE IS EMBARGOED
FOR CURRENT AND HISTORICAL UNTIL 8:30 A.M. (EST)
INFORMATION: [phone] Thursday, January 13, 1994
MEDIA CONTACT: [phone]
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX- DECEMBER 1993
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged before
seasonal adjustment in December, remaining at a level of 145.8 (1982-84=100), the Bureau of
Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. For the 12-month period
ended in December, the CPI-U increased 2.7 percent.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) declined
0.1 percent in December, prior to seasonai adjustment. The December 1993 CPI-W level of
143.3 was 2.5 percent higher than the index ‘n December 1992.
CCPI ofor nAll sUrbuan mer(sCPI -U)
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U rose 0.2 percent in December, the same as in
November. The composition of the December change was also similar to that of November.
Food prices rose 0.5 percent, following a 0.4 percent increase in November, again largely as a
result of a sharp advance in fresh fruit and vegetable prices. Energy costs, which fell 1.3
percent in November, declined 1.1 percent in December as the index for petroleum-based
energy fell 2.2 percent. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U increased 0.3 percent, the same
as in each of the preceding 2 months.
Table A. Percent changes in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)
Seasonally adjusted
Compound Unadjusted
Expenditure ———Chanses from preceding month annual rate 12-mos.
category 199 3-mos. ended ended
, June _July _Aug. Sep. _Oct. _ Nov, Dec, | Dec, 93 ____|___- Dec, 93
All items 0 Al 3 0 4 2 2 3.4 2.7
Food and beverages -.4 0 3 | 5 4 6 5.8 2.7
Housing 3 0 3 2 2 Jl 3 2.3 2.7
Apparel and upkeep -.5 0 9 -.6 2 4 -.7 -.6 9
Transportation -.2 2 Jl -.1 1.0 2 -.2 4.1 2.4
Medical care 4 4 2 4 5 2 3 4.6 5.4
Entertainment 3 -.1 3 - 5 3 Al 3.3 2.8
Other goods and
services -.1 4 -4 -1.5 6 4 3 5.3 2.7
Special indexes:
Energy -.2 0 -.5 -4 19-13 ed -1.9 -1.4
Fond -.4 0 3 | 6 4 5 5.8 2.9
All items less food
and energ; | | 3 A 3 3 3 3.4 3.2
Vy (A |
y
For the 12-month period ended in December 1993, the CPI-U advanced 2.7 percent. This
followed increases of 3.1 percent in 1991 and 2.9 percent in 1992 and was the smallest annual
change since a 1.1 percent nse in 1986. During the past 3 years, changes in energy costs have
helped to hold down the overall rate of inflation. in 1993, energy costs fell 1.4 percent, with
petroleum-based energy costs falling 5.1 percent. The index for energy services rose 2.2
percent in 1993. The food index, which rose substantially less than the overall CPI-U in 1991
and 1992, incre2.a9 pserecendt in 1993. Increina thse iendsexe s for fruits and vegetableasn d
meats, poultry, and fish--up 6.6 and 4.1 percent, respectively--accounted for about 80 percent
of the food acceleration in 1993.
The 3.2 percerinset i n 1993 in the index for all items less food and energy follows a 3.3
percent increase in 1992 and was the smallest advance in this index since a 3.0 percent rise in
1972. The relatively slow rate of increase reflects a sharp downturn in the index for tobacco
and smoking products and the moderation in medical care costs. The index for tobaccaon d
smoking products fell a record 5.9 percent in 1993. The 5.4 percent rise in the medical care
index in 1993 was its smallsineces at 5 .3 percent increase in 1973.
Percent change 12 months
ended in December
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993
All Items 3.8 1.1 44 44 4.6 6.1 3.1 2.9 2.7
Food and beverages 2.8 3.7 3.5 5.1 5.5 5.3 2.5 1.6 2.7
Housing 4.3 1.7 3.7 4.0 3.9 4.5 3.4 2.6 2.7
Apparel and upkeep 2.8 9 48 4.7 1.0 5.1 3.4 1.4 39
Transportation 2.6 -5.9 6.1 3.0 4.0 10.4 -1.5 3.0 2.4
Medical care 6.8 7.7 5.8 6.9 8.5 9.6 7.9 6.6 5.4
Entertainment 3.1 3.4 4.0 4.6 5.1 4.3 3.9 2.8 2.8
Other goods and
services 6.3 5.5 6.1 7.0 8.2 7.6 8.0 6.5 2.7
Special indexes
Energy 18 -19.7 8.2 5 5.1 18.1 -7.4 2.0 -1.4
Food 2.6 3.8 3.5 5.2 5.6 5.3 1.9 1.5 2.9
All Items less food
and energy 4.3 3.8 4.2 4.7 4.4 5.2 4.4 3.3 3.2
The food and beverage index increased 0.6 percent in December to a level 2.7 percent above
a year ago. Grocery store food prices increased 3.5 percent in 1993 after advancing 1.5 percent
in 1992. About 80 percent of the 0.8 percent advance in December was accounted for by a 5.2
percent increase in the index foz fresh fruits and vegetables. Fresh fruit and vegetabprlicee s
rose 9.3 percien n19t93 , following a 2.5 percent increase in 1992. The index for processed
fruits and vegetables increased 0.7 percent in December to a level 1.4 percent above a year ago.
The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs declined 0.1 percent in December, but was stil3l. 8
percent higher than a year ago. This index rose 0.4 percent in 1992. Beef prices, whick
decline0d. 2 percent inD ecemabdvaencred ,3 .7 percent in 1993 after increasin0g.8 percenitn
1992. The index for pork was unchanged in December, but rose 4.5 percent in 1993 after
decl0.9i penrceint ning 199 2. Poultry prices, which rose 2.7 percent in 1992, increased 1.0
percent in December to a level 5.5 percent higher than a year earlier. The indefxor ecesrea l
and bakery products and dairy rose 0.6 and 0.5 percent, respectively, in December.
Each group, howeverorse , slightly less in 1993 than in 1992--3.7 and 0.9 percent, respectively.
The index for other food at home increased 0.1 percent in December to a level 2.0 percent
higher than a year earlier. The other two components of the food and beverage index--
restaurant meals and alcoholic beverages--rose 0.1 and 0.5 percent, respectively, in December.
The 1.9 percent advance in restaurant meals in the past 12 months follows a 1.4 percent
increian s19e92 . The 1.5 percent advance in prices for alcoholic beverages in the past 12
months was the smallest annual increase in this component since a 1.1 perrcisee inn 1t96 6.
The housing component rose 0.3 percent in December, folal 0.o1 pewrcenit inncregase in
November. A moderately larger increase in shelter costs--up 0.4 percent in December after
pon ne Nag! og meagre BH pete | nde pnd yy pbeho
ithin shelter, renters’ costs rose 0.2 percent and homeownercosst’s , 0.s5 oph aia
while maintenance and repair costs fell 0.2 percent. Shelter costs rose 3.0 percent in 1993, with
renters’ cosutps 2. 6 t and homeowners’ costs increa3.s2 ipenrcegnt . The indfeor xfu el
and other utilities, which declined 0.5 percent in November, was unchanged in December. The
index for household fuels was also unchanged in December as declines in the indexes for fuel
oil and electricity--down 2.3 and 1.1 t,r espectively--were offsbye at 2 .8 t
increase in for natural gas. s for natural gas and electricity rose 5.8 and 0.6
percent, respectively, in 1993, while prices for fuel oil fell 4.6 percent. indfoer oxth er
utilities and public services i 0.1 percin eDecnemtber , laras ga reesullt ofy a 1.4
percent increase in charges for interstate telephone calls. This com ae
1993 compared with a 1.8 percent rise in the overall index for te
television charges fell 0.3 percent in December, but were 7.0 percent higher than in December
1992. The index for household furnishings and operation was unchanged in December and
increased 1.8 percent during the past 12 months.
Transportation costs declined 0.2 percine Dencemtber , folloanw inicrenasge of 0.2 percent
in November. ‘The index for gasoline continued its nearly year-long in December,
ee eee eee oe ae percent below its peak
leovf Neovelmb er 1990. Automobile hase costs showleitdtl e chainn Dgeceembe r. The
index for new cars rose 0.1 percenitn ber, while automobile Spence fell 1.0
percent. (Prior to seasonal adjustment, new car prices increased 0.6 t. As of December,
the proportion of 1994 models in the index was about two-thirds of the new car sam a)
During the past 12 monthnesw ,ca r increased 2.8 percent, while automobile finance
henge fell 5.6 percent. The index for used cars rose 0.1 percent in December, its smallest
incrsiencae Jsanuear y. During the past 12 months, they have increased 8.0 percent. The index
for public transportatiroonse 2.0 percine Dencemtber , largely as a result of an increase in
airline fares. Airline fares rose 2.9 percent in December, folal 4.o1 pewrcenit inncregase in
November, and have advanced 17.0 percent this year.
The index for apparel and upkeep declined 0.7 percent in December, following small
incirn eaech aof tshe eprecsedi ng 2 months. (Prior to seasonal adjustment, the index declined
2.6 percent.) Holiday discounting was prevalent, particularly for men's and boys’ clothing.
During the 12 months ended in December, prices for all 1 commodroise t0.i8 peercsen t.
This compares with increases of 1.2 percent in 1992 and 3.4 percentin 1991.
Medical care costs rose 0.3 percent in December to a level 5.4 percent above a year ago.
This compares with a 6.6 percent increase in 1992 and was the smallest advance in 20 years.
The index for medical care commodities--prescription drugs, nonprescription drugs, and
medical supplies--increase0d. 2 percent inD ecembaned r3. 1 percent durithne pgas t 12
months. The index for medical care services rose 0.3 percent in December and 5.9 percent over
the year. Charges for professional services and hospital and related services increased 4.5 and
7.6 percent, respectively, in 1993.
Entertcaosits ninmcreeasnedt 0 .1 percent in December and 2.8 percent during the past 12
months. Declines in charges for admissions and in prices of sporting goods partially offset
small-to-moderate increases in most other entertainment components in December.
The index for other goods and services advanced 0.3 percent in December to a level 2.7
t aboa yveare a go. The index for tobacco and smoking decl0.i3 nperecendt in
ber. (Prior to seasonal adjustment, tobacco prices rose 0.5 percent, reflecting in part a
4 cents a pack wholesale price increase announced in November.)
CPI for Urban Wage Eamers and Clerical Workers (CPI-W)
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers rose
0.1 percin eDecnemtber .
'' ''
. Oo N ' ' Y*N»/P; HcBYoWS AYYR sU DAOD-
—— —s
aaWBWBww N eE O + in
All items less food
and energy NwwDUeAhr w ew e »AUbB wW NeKwNwDbW hK e ROOuN KWEe 3.0
. — — ...........
Consumer Price Index data for January will be released on Thursday, February 17, 1994,
8:30 A.M. (EST).
Facilities forS —
Information from this release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon
request. Voice phone: [phone], Telecommunications Device for the Deaf (TDD) phone:
202-606-5897, TDD Message Referral Phone Numbei” 1-800-326-2577.
Brief Explanation oft he CPI
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change in prices over time in a
fixed market basket of goods and services. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes CPIs for
two population groups: (1) a CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which covers
approximately 80 percent of the total population and (2) a CPI for Urban Wage Earners and
Clerical Workers (CPI-W) which covers 32 percent of the total population. The CPI-U
includes, in addition to wage earners and clerical workers, groups such as professional,
managerial, and technical workers, the self-employed, short-term workers, the unemployed,
and retirees and others notin the labor force.
The CPI is based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, and fuels, transportation fares, charges
for doctors’ and dentists’ services, drugs, and the other goods and services that people buy for
day-to-day living. Prices are collected in 85 urban areas across the country from about 57,000
housing units and approximately 19,000 retail establishments-department stores, supermarkets,
hospitals, filling stations, and other types of stores and service establishments. All taxes
directly associated with the purchase and use of items are included in the index. Prices of food,
fuels and a few other items are obtained every month in all 85 locations. Prices of most other
commodities and services are collected every month in the five largest geographic areas and
every other month in other areas. Prices of most goods and services are obtained by personal
visits or telephone calls of the Bureau's trained representatives.
In calculating the index, price changes for the various items in each location are averaged
together with weights which represent their importance in the reo of the appropriate
population group. Local data are then combined to obtain a U
indexes are also published by size of city, by region of the country, for pcan ote | cee of
regions and population-size classes, and for 29 local areas. Area indexes do not measure
differences in the level of prices among cities, they only measure the average change in prices
for each area since the base period.
The index measures price change from a designated reference date--1982-84 which equals
100.0. An increase of 16.5 percent, for example, is shown as 116.5. This change can also be
expressed in dollars as follows: the price of a base period "market basket" of goods and
services in the CPI has risen from $10 in 1982-84 to $11.65.
For further details see BLS Handbook of Methods, Chapter 19, the Consumer Price Index,
Bulletin 2414, September 1992.
-6-
CalculIandtex iChnangge s
Movemenotf sth e indferomx onee msont h to another are usually expressed as percent
changes rather than changes in index points, because index point changes are affected by the
leve! of the index in relation to its base period while percent changes are not. The example
below illustrates the computation of index point and percent changes.
Percent changes for 3-month and 6-month periods are expressed as annual rates and are
computed according to the standard formula for compogrouwtnh rdate s. Thedatas inedica te
what the percent change would be if the current rate were maintained for a 12-month period.
Index Point Change
CPI 115.7
Less previous index 111.2
Equals index point change 4.5
Percent Change
Index point difference 4.5
Divided by the previous index 111.2
uals 0.040
Results multiplied by one hundred 0.040x 100
Equals percent change 4.0
Because price data are used for different purposes by different groups, the Bureau of Labor
cde a endicnd dete Goh ean.
For analyzing general price trends in the economy, seasadjuostedn chaangels alre uysua lly
preferred since they eliminate the effect of changes that normally occur at the same time and in
about the same magnitude every year--such as price movements rcsulting from changing
climatic conditions, production cycles, model changeovers, holidays, and sales.
The unadjusted data are of primary interest to consumers concerned about the prices they
actually pay. Unaddataj alsuo arse usted eextendsive ly for escalation purposes. Many
collective bargaining contract agreements and pension plafonr esxam,ple , tie compensation
changes to the Consumer Price Index unadjusted for seasonal variation.
Seasonal factors used in computing the seasonally adjusted indexes are derived by the X-11-
ARIMA Seasonal AdjustmMeetnhtod . The updated seasonal data at the end of 1977 replaced
data from 1967 throug19h77 . Subsequent annual updates have replaced 5 years of seasonal
data, ¢.g., data from 1988 through 1992 were replaced at the end of 1992. The seasonal
movement of all items and 47 other aggregations is derived by combining the seasonal
movofe 60 mseleceted ncomptonen ts. Each year the seasonal status of every series is
reevaluated based upon certain statistical criteria. If any of the 60c omponcehannget tshei r
seasonal adjustment status from seasonally adjusted to not seasonally adjusted, not seasonally
adjusted data will be used for the last 5 years, but the seasonally adjusted indexes will be used
befthoat rpeerio d.
Effective with the calculation of the seasonal factors for 1990, the Bureau of Labor Statistics
has used an enhanced seasonal adjustment procedure called intervention analiny cosnjiuncstio n
with X-11-ARIMA for some CPI series. Intervention analysis allows for be:ter estimates of
seasonally adjusted data. Extreme values and/or sharp movements which might distort the
seasonal pattern are removed from the data prior to calculation of seasonal factors in X-11-
For the fuel oil and the motor fuels indexes, this procedure was used to offset the effects that
extreme price volatility would otherwise have had on the estimateso f seasonally adjusted data
for those series. For some women's apparel indexes and the girls’ apparel index, the procedure
ee eee ere ee een for new cars, new trucks, and
new vehicles, this procedure was used to offset the effects of changes in marketing strategies
and the introduofc ntewi moodenls . For the tobacco and smoking products index, this
procedure was used to offset the effects of increases in excise taxes and wholesale tobacco
prices. For some alcoholic beverage series, intervention was usteo odffs et the effects ofe xcise
tax increases.
A description of intervention analysis, as well as a list of events treated as interventions and
seasonal factors for these items may be obtainedb y writing the Bureau of Labor Statistics,
Division ofC onsumer Prices and Price Indexes, Washington, DC 20212 or by calling Claire
McAnaw on [phone].
Sepie l. Cousueer Price Inéex for All Urban Cousupers (CPI-U): U.S. city ewerage. oy expeeéitere cetegery ent copsedity end service
(1982C-84P10I0.- Uunl ess etherwise soted) REE. use meee eta oe ERLE
Belatit? Uesé usted indenes greens seepso n A
. 199%
Expenditure category
ail $888 assests ttc, OE 8 3-7 - : >
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"hey cocunieddse tsa nasI ect eecsscaes seseedseeedsies c.6H7 4«?.3 tf:2 ee
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~
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ati teithatt ssa y ss: HE | xy es a a: os
wt sppaial coassaities’j/°2205055:: “382 : ‘$ 3: 13} — - ; =“
fee Wa a oa lg
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ee@*e¢s.res>a©@©fr es eeeeeeee, ee en peeeeeiee#eFperef eeetneee?e eeeseetetete
peviae ceeeeeetbeiies: Heshesesserreeee 080A CA if:r 3:3 x 23 it
“BRT aaa: ER HR oO od 66 flUT 4
“TREE saidigf Wooo ee} TES oT , $ |
"TA Seto ena a te SS i re ee ae
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refi gece ul oes: iN ty i + : : {
Nama ccc : ;
Commogstaes eraet tean d_ beveraaes {:
néurables lleess s
sepettatsaebsiceses scfsrsrrtisg rse foeodc: abevrerragecs.: TEER UE
e’ r=a-~e e ‘‘ =
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Special indexes
All AtemS LESS TOOE 2. ccc cccccccccneeeeuuee $f s 46.4 7? «+1 . : °
ai) sisas lees menegi 222233025 pogesecces 3: i 3 3:3 i ~. ; 7
Om My Ry By AR ; | $ x ; - a.
RengsrepiesD ior 08 dae" separa" 47°222223: i : it : ig “i hh
ftiay Pet chill HHH Alaa So fi 5 ne rr re rr
atb} ei cba | PP eee 22:38 j 5 1] ‘4 ‘4 ;
weitere foment soe: ERE EE GER 4 Eo i
eater) bs taba iereeeee eieteneee setsnfe*e|«©©8©araa©©. ee s ee,eee e eeeete5 .98 “2. 0 . 0 o
eee ee eee eee ere ere ere ere errr OoW—«BRBOOwe$UEOE eeFrFE sEw-eSe—s F -Tv O e
: betePds, $5.0, fesseeer ties 100 bese.
ROTE @vaiiad
néex applies to a month a6 @ whole, mot to any specifac Gate.
>
Teble 14. Comeweer Price tegex fer All Urbes Coaseeers: U.S. city everage. by expenditure category oné cousedit; sad
service group
(1982-84-100. exless ctherwise soted)
“Se
CP IHU cecescere coresers aseeel
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tert KES
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bent PRTTIEE cocccnccccecccescccssescocss
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oi fursishings Sn@ operation «....c222cc220022
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ace care TUREOS cee eee ee eeseser*eeeseseeseeseseeees
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c ities leesf né Rn 2990600000000000¢
i
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oe SPPOT LD cee Ee
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sesebels serenite feas coat ot shesbéer §)°222222222:
BEPOTLACLION POTVICOR ccc cee eee erereeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
Medics COTE BOTVICOR cece cere ee eee eee ease eee eeeee
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ervices Tees reais cit ittiae (ppeesssssssserseessrsssss
ervices less sedicel car
ervices less ene .
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+997
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1 tts neta veitabien | eeTte® Meee. = BEST COPY AVAILABLE q
Tebie 2. Conguaee Price leégex fer 411 Orbee Consesers (CPI-0): Seaseusliy efjusted 0.5. city everage. by expenéitere categery ond
cCeBeeetity service group
(1982-84-100. esless otherwise seted)
CPi-U Seasoecliy eé€justeé inéexes pSeeaseeuaisl=y setéej eshteeée sefeeur sii asreet e Hy
38h Sis PSs «PSs Shs «SSS = CTSSS- «PSs TES
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