Boeing’s engineers - Aviation Daily on Airports

297 Pages·2010·6.82 MB·English

by  Marty Bradley

Boeing Research & Technology
April 20, 2010
NASA N+3
Subsonic Ultra Green Aircraft Research
Marty Bradley
SUGAR
Principal Investigator
Boeing Research & Technology Final Review
[email protected]
Chris Droney Dave Paisley Bryce Roth & Srini Gowda Michelle Kirby
BR&T Deputy BCA Deputy General Electric Georgia Tech
BOEING is a trademark of Boeing Management Company.
Copyright ©2010 Boeing. All rights reserved. 11
SUGAR Phase 1 Final Review
BCA – Advanced Concepts BR&T – Platform Performance Technology
(cid:131) Task Flow & Schedule 8:00
(cid:131) Future Scenario, Concepts, & Technologies from the 6-Month
Review
(cid:131) Concept Performance and Sizing from 12-Month Review
(cid:131) Technology Activities
– Risk Assessment / Rankings / Roadmaps
(cid:131) Summary, Conclusions, and Recommendations
(cid:131) Lunch
(cid:131) Proprietary Session
Initial
Advanced Concept
Technology Recommendations
Concepts Conclusions
Selection
Technology Technology
Rankings Conclusions
Technology Technology
Risks Roadmaps
Copyright ©2010 Boeing. All rights reserved. 22
SUGAR Phase 1 Final Review
BCA – Advanced Concepts BR&T – Platform Performance Technology
(cid:131) Task Flow & Schedule 8:00
(cid:131) Future Scenario, Concepts, & Technologies from the 6-Month
Review
(cid:131) Concept Performance and Sizing from 12-Month Review
(cid:131) Technology Activities
– Risk Assessment / Rankings / Roadmaps
(cid:131) Summary, Conclusions, and Recommendations
(cid:131) Lunch
(cid:131) Proprietary Session
Initial
Advanced Concept
Technology Recommendations
Concepts Conclusions
Selection
Technology Technology
Rankings Conclusions
Technology Technology
Risks Roadmaps
Copyright ©2010 Boeing. All rights reserved. 33
SUGAR Study - Task Flow Chart
BCA – Advanced Concepts BR&T – Platform Performance Technology
Phase 1 Task Flow Task 2 – Develop Advanced Vehicle Concepts Task 3 – Assess Technology Task 4 – Reporting
Risk and Generate
Task 1 – Identify Establish Missions and Analysis and Sizing of Technology Roadmaps
Future Scenario Reference Configurations Advanced Concepts Phase 1 Report
• Future Scenario Definition
• Noise Concept & Technology
Identify Advanced Vehicle • Advanced Vehicle Concepts
• Emissions Risk Analysis
Concepts • Enabling Technologies and
• Performance
Roadmaps
• Fuel Burn Develop Technology
Identify Suites of
• Field Length Roadmaps
Advanced Technologies
Phase 2 Proposal
Complete
Study structured to provide data to make good technology decisions
Copyright ©2010 Boeing. All rights reserved. 44
Phase 1 SUGAR Project Is Complete
ID Task Name
2009 2010
BCA – Advanced Concepts Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb MaBr RA&prT M–ayPlaJutnforJmul PAeugrfoSremp aOnctceN TovecDhecnoJlaongyFeb Mar Apr May
1 Task 1-Develop Future Scenario
2 Develop 1st Draft
3 Refinement
4 Task 2 - Develop Adv. Vehicle Concepts
5 Establish Reference Configuration Vehicles
6 Establish Reference Missions
7 Workshop Preparation
8 Concept Workshop 02-04
9 Identify Advanced Vehicle Concepts
10 Identify Suites of Advanced Technologies
11 Propulsion Technologies
12 Aircraft Technologies
13 Analysis and Sizing of Concepts
14 2008 Baseline (SUGAR Free)
15 2030 Reference (Refined SUGAR)
16 Advanced Concept 1 (SUGAR High)
17 Advanced Concept 2 (SUGAR Volt)
18 Advanced Concept 3 (SUGAR Ray)
19 Task 3 - Technology Planning
20 Workshop Preparation
21 Technology Planning Workshop 11-10
22 Assess Technology Risk
23 Generate Tech. Roadmaps
24 Task 4 - Coordination, Management, and Reporting
25 Coordination and Management
26 Contract Start 10-01
27 Kick-Off Meeting 11-12
28 6-Month Review 03-26
29 12-Month Review
30 Final Review 04-20
31 Quarterly Reports
37 Trade Studies and Analysis Report 12-23
38 Technical Risk Assessment Reports 12-23
39 Advanced Concepts Configuration 01-29
40 Copyright ©20F1i0n aBol eRinegp. oArllt riPghrtesp reasrearvtieodn. 55
41 Final Report Delivered 03-31
SUGAR Phase 1 Final Review
BCA – Advanced Concepts BR&T – Platform Performance Technology
(cid:131) Task Flow & Schedule 8:05
(cid:131) Future Scenario, Concepts, & Technologies from the 6-Month
Review
(cid:131) Concept Performance and Sizing from 12-Month Review
(cid:131) Technology Activities
– Risk Assessment / Rankings / Roadmaps
(cid:131) Summary, Conclusions, and Recommendations
(cid:131) Lunch
(cid:131) Proprietary Session
Initial
Advanced Concept
Technology Recommendations
Concepts Conclusions
Selection
Technology Technology
Rankings Conclusions
Technology Technology
Risks Roadmaps
Copyright ©2010 Boeing. All rights reserved. 66
Current Market Outlook (CMO) Annually Since 1964
• For over 40 years, Boeing has
published its 20-year forecast of the
world demand for air travel and
commercial airplanes
• The Outlook has been shared
thousands of times with airlines,
journalists, bankers, investment
analysts, governments, suppliers,
and educators
• The Boeing Current Market Outlook
is the only complete forecast that
combines top-down and bottom-up
analysis
• All jets 30 seats and over
• Freighters
• All regions of world
Future Scenario
• Scheduled and Nonscheduled flying
77
COPYRIGHT ©2010 THE BOEING COMPANY
CMO Process Outline
-Liberalization- GDP Growth -Geopolitics-
t -Environment- & World Trade -Fuel Price-
n c s
w a
i
o f c ASM Forecast –
D af e -Travel Spend- -Growth Rates-
Regional Flows
p- r r
T o
o
T F -OAG-
Share Allocation ASMs by Airline
-Non Scheduled-
-Market Share- by Airline by Flow
-Business Models-
t
e s -Airline Strategies-
c a -OAG- Traffic Forecast ASMs
Service Forecast
i c
v e -Non Scheduled- By Airline =
r
-Known Plans-
e r Service Forecast ASMs?
o
S
F
-Product Scenario-
t st -Airplane Characteristics-
p c
a Service Forecast ASMs
U u Fleet Forecast -Utilization-
m- d ec = By Airline -Current Fleet-
o
o r Airline ASMs?
t r o -Firm Orders-
t P
o F
B -Retirements-
-Known Plans-
88
COPYRIGHT ©2010 THE BOEING COMPANY
2010-2030 forecast:
strong long-term growth
99
COPYRIGHT ©2010 THE BOEING COMPANY
Increasing demand for replacing older,
less efficient aircraft
Units
40,000
3355,,880000
30,000
1166,,880000
GGrroowwtthh
5577%%
29,400
20,000
1199,,000000
1122,,660000
RReeppllaacceemmeenntt
4433%%
10,000
66,,440000
RReettaaiinneedd FFlleeeett
0
2007 2030
1100
COPYRIGHT ©2010 THE BOEING COMPANY