Beyond Afghanistan

352 Pages·2014·33.92 MB·English

Beyond Afghanistan

RESEARCH PAPERSAND POLICYSTUDIES 32
Beyond Afghanistan
The Emerging U.S.-Pakistan Relations
EDITED BY
Leo E. Rose and Kamal Matinuddin
instituteofeastASIANstudies
UNIVERSITYOFCALIFORNIA• BERKELEY
A publication of the Institute of East Asian Studies, University of California,
Berkeley.AlthoughtheInstituteisresponsiblefortheselectionandacceptance of
manuscripts in this series, responsibilityfor the opinions expressedand for the
accuracyofstatementsrests withtheirauthors.
The ResearchPapersand PolicyStudiesseriesisoneofseveralpublicationsseries
sponsoredbytheInstituteofEastAsianStudiesinconjunctionwithitsconstituent
units.TheothersincludetheChinaResearchMonographseries,theJapanResearch
Monograph series, the Itorea Research Monograph series, and the Indochina
ResearchMonographseries.Alistofrecentpublicationsappearsatthebackofthe
book.
Correspondencemaybesentto:
Ms.JoanneSandstrom,Managing Editor
InstituteofEastAsianStudies
UniversityofCalifornia
Berkeley,California 94720
Copyright©1989bythe Regentsofthe UniversityofCalifornia
ISBN1-55729-017-2
LibraryofCongressCatalogCardNumber89—81688
PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica
Allrightsreserved.
Contents
Preface vii
In MemoryofPresidentMohammedZia-ui-Haq
HerbertG.Hagerty ix
Introduction: Themes andPerceptionsonthe BilateralRelationship
AnitaM. Weiss 1
Part One Pakistan-U.S. SecurityRelations
1. BeyondAfghanistan: U.S.-PakistanSecurityRelations
Rodney W.Jones 31
2. Pakistan'sSecurityImperatives
andRelationswiththeUnitedStates
IftikbarH. Malik 60
3. U.S.-PakistanSecurityRelations:Nuclear-RelatedIssues
NazirKamal 94
PartIwo Pakistan-U.S.EcononiicRelations
4. Knowledge and Institutional Reform:
Long-TermChallengesin the PakistaniEconomy
EugeneStaples 119
5. Pakistan-U.S. EconomicRelations
KUBeg 133
PartThree MutualPerceptions
6. AnAmerican Perspectiveon PakistaniPolitical Developments
andTheirImpactonPakistan-U.S. Relations
WilliamL Richter 145
vi Contents
7. MutualPerceptionsofPakistanandUS.Policies
asTheyAjfifectBilateralRelations
KamalMatinuddin 160
PartFour Pakistan-IndiaRelationsandSouthAsia
8. PakistanandSouthAsia:TheIndiaRelationship
LeoE. RoseandRichardSisson 183
9. Hegemony,Bipolarity,or Multipolarity?
Keyto aDurable PeaceinSouth Asia
RafiqueAhmad 197
PartFive ProblemsofPeaceandSecurityinWestAsiaandtheGulf
10. ProblemsofPeaceandSecurityinWestAsia andthe Gulf
Andrew1.Killgore 215
11. Pakistan'sVitalEnvironment:TheMiddleEasternRegion
SyedFarooqHasnat 228
Part Six TheAfghanistanConflict
12. Afghanistanand U.S.-PakistanRelations: AnAmericanView
TheodoreL Eliot,Jr. 255
13. Afghanistan Conflict and Prospectsfor the Future
IjazS. Gilani 272
PartSeven TheUSSRFactor
14. TheSovietRole in SouthAsia:Potentialfor Change
RobertG. Wirsing 283
15. Pakistan-AmericanRelationsinSovietPerspective:
AnEvaluation
SyedRifatHussain 302
Postscript
WilliamL Richter 329
Contributors 335
Preface
Aseriesofveryimportantdevelopmentsin the southernAsianregion
in late 1987 and 1988 made a third U.S.-Pakistanbilateral forum appear
necessary. InSouthwestAsiaan accordhad finallybeenreached in April
1988underwhichallSovietforcesweretobewithdrawnfromAfghanistan
bymid-February 1989.Meanwhile a"ceasefire"in the seeminglyendless
Iran-Iraq war was negotiated, easing what had been a critical but very
complexissue inU.S.-Pakistanrelations. InSouthAsia,India'srelationship
withPakistan, SriLanka,Nepal, and theMaldiveshad evolvedalongsome
novel and, in the view of the smaller South Asian states, potentially
dangerous lines;areconsiderationofthe respectivePakistaniandAmeri
can views ofthe "proper" Indian role in the region seemed appropriate.
The rather confusing series ofdevelopments in Pakistan's domestic
politicsinthespringof1988andtheupcomingU.S.presidentialelectionin
early November were also seen as having important consequences for
both countries' foreign policies, including their interrelationship. While
no one hadforeseen the death ofPresident Zia-ul-Haq in an air crash on
August17,the subsequentintroductionofanewandmoreopenpolitical
system inPakistanwas alsoasubjectofgreatinterestandconcerntoboth
groups ofparticipants. Although this process ofpoliticalchange in Paki
stanwas still underway in mid-October 1988 when the conferencewas
heldinSanFrancisco,itdidprovidethegeneralframeworkformuchofthe
discussiononall the topics.
The organizers and sponsors of the forum were Lt.General (ret'd.)
Kamal Matinuddin, director general of the Institute of Strategic Studies
(ISS)in Islamabad;ProfessorRobertA.Scalapino,directoroftheInstitute
of East Asian Studies; and Mr. Allen Choate, executive director of the
Center for Asian Pacific Affairs (CAPA) ofThe Asia Foundation, which
funded the conference and hosted it in the foundation's San Francisco
headquarters. Mr. Harry H. Kendall of the lEAS served as conference
coordinator. There were fourteen Pakistani and twenty-two American
participants, including members of academic and research institutions,
governmentandbusinessorganizations,and journalists.
Theconferenceopenedwiththreebroad-rangingsessionsonPakistan-
US.securityrelations (RodneyJones,IftikharH.Malik,andNazirKamal);
viii Preface
economic relations (H. U. Beg and EugeneStaples); and mutual percep
tionsonthe impactofpoliticsand policieson bilateralrelations(William
RichterandKamalMatinuddin).Thenexttwosessionsdealtwithdevelop
mentsinSouthAsia(RafiqueAhmad, LeoE.Rose,andRichardSisson)and
inWestAsia(AndrewI.Killgore andFarooqHasnat).Thefinaltwosessions
focusedonthecriticaldevelopmentsinAfghanistan(TheodoreEliot and
Ijaz S.Gilani) and on the Soviet factor in U.S.-Pakistanrelations (S. Rifat
Hussain and Robert G. Wirsing). The papers and the discussions that
followed clearly defined the areas and subjects of convergence and
divergence in both countries' policies and interests in current Asian
developments and the constructionofafirmrelationship basedonprag
maticconsiderationsin the newworldthatisemerging.
In Memory of
President Mohammed Zia-ul-Haq
HERBERT G. HAGERTY
AttheopeningoftheThirdUnitedStates-PakistanBilateralForum
theparticipantsobserveda momentofsilencein memoryofPresident
Mohammed Zia-ul-Haq, U.S. AmbassadorArnold Raphel, and others
who lost their livesin thefatalplanecrash ofAugust17,1988.Subse
quentlyMr. Hagerty, a careerForeignService Officerwith manyyears'
experience at theforefront of U.S. relations withSouthAsiamade the
followingpersonal observations in conjunction with his discussanfs
remarkson thefirst two chapters in this volume.
I wish to commend Professors Iftikar Malik and Rodney Jones for their
paperson thiscriticalaspectof Pakistan-U.S. relations. Theyprovidea
comprehensiveandtimelyreviewofthe"pressurepoints"intherelation
shipbetween Pakistan andthe United States. 1wishto associate myself
especially with the views expressed by Rodney Jones—and not only
becauseheisgenerousinquotingandcitingtheHagertyfamily.
1find also the momentofsilencewithwhichwe openedthis session
especiallyappropriate,notjustfortheveryhumanlosswehaveallsuffered
atBahawalpurbutalsoasaspecialreminderofthecriticalimportanceof
thelatePresidenttothepresentPakistan-U.S.securityrelationship.Infact,
itisimpossibletoreviewtheoverallrelationshipasithasevolvedbetween
ourtwocountrieswithoutmakingitsoundlikeaeulogy to Zia-ul-Haq;so
beit, if that iswhatmyremarks seem.
Fornearlyadecade.GeneralZiadominatedallaspectsoftherelation
ship. Like allsuccessful politiciansandgenerals, hewaslucky. Hisluck
went beyond anunparalleledrecord of good monsoons.Hehadsuperb
gambler'sinstinctsandmadethemostofhissituationbybeingwillingto
gamble, but he could alsobe steadfastagainst the odds,in thefaceof
threatsandpressures.
RodneyJonesnotesthatZiagave"predictability"totherelationship,as
important inrelationsbetweennationsasitisintiesbetween peoples.It
X HERBERTG. HAGERTY
wasespeciallycriticalduringthelastdecadeinhelpingbothsidestoavoid
thepitfallsofthepastofwhich1wroteinthepaperIgaveatourmeetingin
Islamabadin 1986.
Hiswasasteadyhand.Hecouldbecountedontobesteadfastonthe
Afghanistan question, almost as the ultimate advocate of the "forward
school"of nineteenth-century Britishstrategicthinking. Heunderstood
that the security of Pakistan—indeed, of South Asia as a whole—rests
heavilyonensuringthatKabulisruledbyafree, andifpossiblefriendly,
government. For Pakistan, of course, the problem of Afghanistan began
morethantwodecadesbeforetheSovietinvasionof1979andhasaspects
that go back before Partition. Zia understood well that helping the
courageous Afghan Mujahideen to stand tall against the Sovietinvaders
wouldbe butafirststeptowardsolving the problem.
Hewassteadfastinhiseconomicpolicies,which—inthe handsofthe
same GhulamIshaq Khan nowactingashissuccessor—madethe mostof
Pakistan'sscarce resources, mobilized supportfrom abroad, avoided the
capaciousnessof theZuMkarBhuttoyears,andprovidedanunparalleled
periodofdomesticgrowthand stability.
He was steadfast also in the search for the right combination that
would have enabled him to restore representative governmentwithout
settingthestageforyetonemorecycleofpoliticalchaosrequiringarmy
intervention.Inthis,hewaslikeamanonthebackofatiger.Toagroupof
American visitorsheonce candidlyobserved—^with adisarming grin—
thatitwas"ahellofaloteasiertoseizepowerthantogiveitback."Hewas
profoundly suspicious of political parties,whichlikeourownfounding
fathers, he mistookfor the occasionof faction, not itsconsequenceor
brokeringmechanism.Ifhewasnotquiteclearonwhathewanted,hewas
certainofwhathewishedto avoid, andhekepttryingto find theright
formula for Pakistan,undaunted byrebuffs andfalsestarts.
An important aspect of this effort was the successful local bodies
electionshe held, on a nonpartybasis,for the town and districtcouncils
thatweretobecomeforsomeatraininggroundforthenewpolitics.Inthe
late 1970s, he spokeapprovingly of the "Turkish model" for restoring
representativeinstitutionswhilepreservingaroleforthearmy.Inhisdays
asacorpscommander,he institutedlecturesonIslamforhisofficers,and
he drew on his Islamic commitmentto evokethe virtuesand uniting
powerofIslaminsupportofwhathecalled"Islamicdemocracy,"avague
conceptthatappearedtobeablendofWesternparliamentarypracticeand
boththe egalitarianand the authoritarianvaluesofIslam.
Hewaspersistent. Hemoved gradually throughabriefcoalitionwith
the Pakistan National Alliance (PNA), giving new life to the Pakistan