Beat the Market: Win with Proven Stock Selection and Market Timing Tools: Win with Proven Stock Selection and Market Timing Strategies

209 Pages·2008·1.111 MB·English

by  Gerald Appel

PRAISE FOR
WIN WITH PROVEN STOCK SELECTION AND
MARKET TIMING TOOLS
“This new book by Gerald Appel follows the rich legacy he has
established over the years; it is a treasure chest of valuable
advice which bestows on the reader the benefit of his decades of
investment experience. It receives my highest recommendation.”
—Edward D. Dobson, President, Traders Press
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BEAT
THE
MARKET
WIN WITH
PROVEN STOCK
SELECTION AND
MARKET TIMING
TOOLS
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BEAT
THE
MARKET
WIN WITH
PROVEN STOCK
SELECTION AND
MARKET TIMING
TOOLS
GERALD APPEL
Vice President, Publisher: Tim Moore
Associate Publisher and Director of Marketing: Amy Neidlinger
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Proofreader: Paula Lowell
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Senior Compositor: Gloria Schurick
Manufacturing Buyer: Dan Uhrig
© 2009 by Pearson Education, Inc.
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Printed in the United States of America
First Printing December 2008
ISBN-10: 0-13-235917-0
ISBN-13: 978-0-13-235917-7
Pearson Education LTD.
Pearson Education Australia PTY, Limited.
Pearson Education Singapore, Pte. Ltd.
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Appel, Gerald.
Beat the market—win with proven stock : selection and market timing tools / Gerald Appel.
p. cm.
ISBN 0-13-235917-0 (hbk. : alk. paper) 1. Investments. 2. Speculation. 3. Portfolio
management. I. Title.
HG4521.A636 2009
332.63’22--dc22
2008026062
This book is dedicated to my grandchildren,
Emily, Caroline, and Alexandra,
who bring so much life and love to wherever they go…
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C
ONTENTS
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xix
Prologue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xxiii
CHAPTER 1 Your Basic Investment Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
The Best and Worst Mindsets for Profitable Investing . . 3
CHAPTER 2 Bond-Stock Valuation Models—A Key Market
Forecasting Tool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
The Search for Something Simple, Useful,
and Stable . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Bond-Stock Valuation Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Investments to Be Compared . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
The General Concept of Bond-Stock Valuation
Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Money Goes Where It Is Best Treated . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Interest Rate Relationships and Past Performance . . . . 17
Further Observations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Further Evidence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
CHAPTER 3 Government Bond Yields Compared
to Earnings Yields . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Implications of the Safety of Government
Instruments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Averaging Yields of Longer-Term Treasury Notes
and Shorter-Term Treasury Bills . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
Compare Earnings Yields from Stocks to Interest
Yields, This Time from the Highest Grade
of Government Income Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Commentary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
Handling Money Management at Other Times . . . . . . 31
ix