Basic Methods of Policy Analysis and Planning

481 Pages·2012·6.402 MB·English

by  Carl V. Patton, David Sawicki, Jennifer Clark

Basic Methods of Policy
Analysis and Planning
Third Edition
Patton
CARLV.
Georgia State University
Sawicki
DAVID S.
Georgia Institute of Technology
Clark
JENNIFER J.
Georgia Institute of Technology
RO Routledge
U
T
LE
DG Taylor & Francis Group
E
LONDON AND NEW YORK
First published 2013, 1993, 1986 by Pearson Education, Inc.
Published 2016 by Routledge
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN
711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017, USA
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
Copyright ©201 2, 2009, 2006, 2003 Taylo r& Franci s.A llright sreserved .
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in
any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter
invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or
retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.
Notice:
Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are
used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe.
Credits and acknowledgments borrowed from other sources and reproduced, with permission, in this
textbook appear on the appropriate page within text.
ISBN: 9780137495092 (pbk)
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Patton, Carl V.
Basic methods of policy analysis and planning / Carl V. Patton, David S. Sawicki,
Jennifer J. Clark.—3rd ed.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN-13: 978-0-13-749509-2 (alk. paper)
ISBN-10: 0-13-749509-9 (alk. paper)
1. Policy sciences--Research. 2. Public administration. 3. Political planning. 4. City planning.
I. Sawicki, David S. II. Title.
H97.P38 2013
320.6—dc23
2011048471
CONTENTS
List of Figures ix Step 4: Evaluate Alternative Policies 50
Step 5: Display and Distinguish among
List of Tables xi
Alternative Policies 51
Preface xv Step 6: Monitor and Evaluate the Implemented
Policy 53
2.6 Chapter Summary 56
PART 1 Methods 1
2.7 Glossary 57
CHAPTER 1
2.8 Exercise 58
The Need for Simple Methods of Policy
Analysis and Planning 2
CHAPTER 3
1.1 Quick,Basic Policy Analysis 3
Crosscutting Methods 66
1.2 Learning the Methods of Policy Analysis and
3.1 Identifying and Gathering Data 69
Planning 6
3.1.1 Sources of Data 70
1.3 Practical Principles for Beginning Policy
3.1.2 Literature Review 75
Analysts 8
3.1.3 Library Search Methods 77
1.4 Chapter Summary 17 3.1.4 Getting Started 77
3.1.5 Federal Government Information 80
1.5 Organization of the Book 18
3.1.6 Legal Searches 83
1.6 Glossary 18
3.1.7 Management Records 87
1.7 Exercises 19 3.1.8 Observation 88
3.2 Interviewing for Policy Information 89
CHAPTER 2 3.2.1 The Investigative Approach 89
The Policy Analysis Process 21 3.2.2 Structure and Closure 91
3.2.3 Choosing the Interviewees 91
2.1 Types of Policy Analysis 22
3.2.4 Making Contact 92
2.2 The Role of the Analyst 24 3.2.5 Conducting the Interview 93
3.2.6 Using Your Time Efficiently 95
2.3 Ethical Considerations 27
2.3.1 Values in Analysis 29 3.3 Quick Surveys 96
2.3.2 Ethical Analysis 30 3.3.1 Types of Surveys 97
2.3.3 Ethical Principles and Rules 34 3.3.2 Survey Methods 98
2.3.4 Guidelines for Professional Conduct 36 3.3.3 Questionnaire Construction 99
2.4 The Analytic Process 40 3.3.4 Sample Selection 99
2.5 Basic Policy Analysis in Six Steps 43 3.4 Evaluating Data and Information 100
Step 1: Verify, Define, and Detail the Problem 44 3.4.1 Estimating Data Quality 100
Step 2: Establish Evaluation Criteria 47 3.4.2 Document Analysis 101
Step 3: Identify Alternative Policies 49 3.4.3 Determining Truth from Interviews 103
iii
iv Contents
3.5 Basic Data Analysis 103 5.2.4 Standing 184
3.5.1 Descriptive Data Analysis 104 5.2.5 Externalities 186
3.5.2 Graphic Techniques 105 5.2.6 Elasticity 187
3.5.3 Tables 113 5.2.7 Marginal Analysis 188
3.5.4 Mapping and Spatial Analysis 116 5.2.8 Equity and Sustainability 191
3.5.5 Descriptive Statistics 120
5.3 Commonly Employed Evaluation
3.5.6 Association or Correlation 121
Criteria 194
3.5.7 Measures of Significance 124
5.3.1 Technical Feasibility 195
3.6 Communicating the Analysis 125 5.3.2 Economic and Financial Possibility 196
3.6.1 Getting It on Paper 126 5.3.3 Political Viability 200
3.6.2 Using Graphics to Communicate 127 5.3.4 Administrative Operability 203
3.6.3 Organizing the Report 128
5.4 Chapter Summary 204
3.6.4 In-Person Communication 130
5.5 Glossary 205
3.7 Chapter Summary 131
5.6 Exercises 207
3.8 Glossary 131
3.9 Exercises 133
CHAPTER 6
Identifying Alternatives 215
CHAPTER 4
Verifying,Defining,and Detailing the 6.1 Sources of Alternatives 218
Problem 140 6.2 Searching for Alternatives 220
6.2.1 Researched Analysis and Experimentation 221
4.1 Identifying and Defining Problems 141
6.2.2 No-Action (Status Quo) Analysis 221
4.2 Developing the Problem Statement 144 6.2.3 Quick Surveys 224
4.3 Back-of-the-Envelope Calculations 146 6.2.4 Literature Review 224
6.2.5 Comparison of Real-World Experiences 224
4.4 Quick Decision Analysis 150
6.2.6 Passive Collection and Classification 225
4.5 Creation of Valid Operational Definitions 155 6.2.7 Development of Typologies 225
4.6 Political Analysis 158 6.2.8 Analogy, Metaphor, and Synectics 225
6.2.9 Brainstorming 227
4.7 The Issue Paper versus First-Cut
6.2.10 Comparison with an Ideal 229
Analysis 165
6.3 Creating Alternatives 230
4.8 Chapter Summary 167
6.3.1 Feasible Manipulations 231
4.9 Glossary 168 6.3.2 Modifying Existing Solutions 231
4.10Exercises 168 6.4 Pitfalls to Avoid 235
6.5 Chapter Summary 236
CHAPTER 5
6.6 Glossary 237
Establishing Evaluation Criteria 176
6.7 Exercises 238
5.1 The Process of Establishing Evaluation
Criteria 177
CHAPTER 7
5.2 Several Important Economic Concepts 180
Evaluating Alternative Policies 243
5.2.1 The Free-Market Model 180
5.2.2 Costs 182 7.1 Forecasting Methods 244
5.2.3 Benefits 183 7.1.1 Extrapolative Techniques 246
Contents v
7.1.2 Theoretical Forecasting Techniques and 9.3.2 With-and-Without Comparisons 352
Modeling 252 9.3.3 Actual-versus-Planned Performance
7.1.3 Intuitive Forecasting Techniques 257 Comparisons 352
9.3.4 Experimental Models 353
7.2 Evaluation Methods 259
9.3.5 Quasi-Experimental Models 355
7.2.1 Discounting 259
9.3.6 Cost-Oriented Evaluation
7.2.2 Three Measures of Efficiency 263
Approaches 359
7.2.3 Sensitivity Analysis 267
7.2.4 Allocation Formulas 271 9.4 Which Method Should Be Used? 361
7.2.5 Quick Decision Analysis Revisited 277 9.5 Principles of Quick Evaluation 362
7.2.6 Political Analysis 282
9.6 Chapter Summary 366
7.3 Uncertainty 293
9.7 Glossary 367
7.4 Chapter Summary 295
9.8 Exercises 368
7.5 Glossary 296
7.6 Exercises 297
PART 2 Cases 375
CHAPTER 8 CHAPTER 10
Displaying Alternatives and Distinguishing Downtown Development 376
among Them 314
10.1 Introduction 376
8.1 Problems in Selecting the Best Policy 315
10.2 The Assignment 377
8.2 Conflict between Individual and Collective
10.3 Background Information 377
Rationality 317
8.3 The Problem of Multiple Criteria 318
CHAPTER 11
8.4 Several Methods of Dealing with Multiple
Defending against Accusations
Criteria 320
of Discriminatory Housing
8.4.1 Basic Comparison Methods 321
Practices 379
8.4.2 Matrix (Scorecard) Display Systems 330
8.4.3 Other Matrix Methods 332 11.1 Introduction 379
8.4.4 Weights, Rating Systems, and Index
11.2 The Assignment 379
Numbers 334
11.3 Background Information 380
8.5 Chapter Summary 335
11.4 The Data and Data Problems 381
8.6 Glossary 336
11.5 Learning Objectives 381
8.7 Exercises 337
11.6 Exhibits 381
Exhibit 11.1 Newspaper Article 381
CHAPTER 9
Exhibit 11.2 Examples of Housing
Monitoring and Evaluating Implemented
Discrimination 383
Policies 341
Exhibit 11.3 Current Rental Rates
9.1 Types of Policy Failures 344
by Race for All Peters-Owned Buildings
9.2 The Policy Evaluation Continuum 346 (Tables 11.1–11.8) 384
9.3 Types of Ex-Post Evaluation 347 Exhibit 11.4 Consumer Price Index
9.3.1 Before-and-After Comparisons 352 (Table 11.9) 385
vi Contents
Exhibit 11.5 Estimates of Population and Exhibit 13.7 Table 13.5Comments on
Households by Race for Counties in the MSA Parking and Transportation by University
and SMSA (Tables 11.10–11.14) 386 Affiliation 408
11.7 Source Material 387 13.7 Source Material 408
CHAPTER 12
CHAPTER 14
Municipal Garbage:Solid-Waste Collection
Emergency Aid for Home Heating Fuel:
Methods 388
Developing an Allocation Formula 409
12.1 Introduction 388
14.1 Introduction 409
12.2 The Assignment 389
14.2 The Assignment 410
12.3 Exhibits 389
14.3 The Specific Tasks 411
Exhibit 12.1 Draft Report on DPW
14.4 Exhibits 412
Solid-Waste Collection Experiments 389
Exhibit 14.1 Memo from CSA Director
Exhibit 12.2 Summary Report:Time/Cost
G.G.Ortiz to All Governors 412
Comparisons for Solid-Waste Collection
Methods 394 Attachment 1 Poverty Guidelines for
Wisconsin Households,2011 414
CHAPTER 13 Exhibit 14.2 Internal Memorandum /
WHEAP 414
University On Campus Parking Policies 397
Table 14.1 Propane (LP) and Fuel Oil
13.1 Introduction 397
Survey,2011 415
13.2 The Assignment 397
Table 14.2 Total Number of Disconnected
13.3 Background Information 398 Households Estimated by County,2011 416
13.4 Guidelines for Analysis 402 Table 14.3 Estimated Percentages of Types
of Fuel Used for Home Heating,by County
13.5 Final Report 402
and the State of Wisconsin,2011 417
13.6 Exhibits 403
Table 14.4 Heating Degree Days by County,
Exhibit 13.1 Table 13.1Parking Pricing and
State of Wisconsin,Averages for 1981–2010
Supply at Selected Universities 403
(Base Temperature 65°) 417
Exhibit 13.2 Figure 13.1Student Center
14.5 Source Material 418
Parking Deck Utilization 404
Exhibit 13.3 Table 13.2State University
Annual Parking and Transportation Budget CHAPTER 15
(in thousands of dollars) 405 A State Tax on Plastic Shopping Bags 419
Exhibit 13.4 Figure 13.2Annual Capital
15.1 Introduction 419
Expenditures for Parking 406
15.2 The Assignment 421
Exhibit 13.5 Table 13.3Travel Behavior by
15.3 Underlying Themes 421
University Affiliation 407
15.4 Learning Objectives 421
Exhibit 13.6 Table 13.4Demographics by
University Affiliation 407 15.5 Source Material 422
Contents vii
CHAPTER 16 16.5 Exhibits 426
Public-Private Redevelopment Projects: Exhibit 16.1 Newspaper Article 426
The Case of Underground
Exhibit 16.2 Memo 430
Atlanta 423
Exhibit 16.3 Formal Description of
16.1 Introduction 423 Proposed Project 432
16.6 Source Material 436
16.2 The Assignment 424
16.3 Case Background 424 Bibliography 437
16.4 Issues and Actors 425 Index 454
(cid:53)(cid:73)(cid:74)(cid:84)(cid:1)(cid:81)(cid:66)(cid:72)(cid:70)(cid:1)(cid:74)(cid:79)(cid:85)(cid:70)(cid:79)(cid:85)(cid:74)(cid:80)(cid:79)(cid:66)(cid:77)(cid:77)(cid:90)(cid:1)(cid:77)(cid:70)(cid:71)(cid:85)(cid:1)(cid:67)(cid:77)(cid:66)(cid:79)(cid:76)
LIST OF FIGURES
FIGURE1.1 The Classical Rational Problem-Solving FIGURE4.3 Ranking of Consequences Associated with
Process 4 Four Separate Tax Abatement Policy Outcomes Are
Changed 153
FIGURE2.1 A Typical Ethical Dilemma:The City of
Oldport—the Hazards of Population Projections 28 FIGURE4.4 A Decision Tree:To Revises or
Not To Revises the Community Development
FIGURE2.2Ethical Theories 31
Budget 163
FIGURE2.3 A Framework for Ethical Analysis 38
FIGURE4.5 The Benefits of Analysis Received per Unit
FIGURE2.4 Alternative Responses to Value Conflicts 39 of Investment in Analysis for Three Separate
FIGURE2.5 A Basic Policy Analysis Process 44 Programs 166
FIGURE2.6 A Typical Policy Problem 46 EXERCISE21
FIGURE1 Ambrosia County Finances 173
FIGURE2.7 Newspaper Article 54
FIGURE6.1 Methods of Identifying Alternatives 221
FIGURE2.8 Newspaper Article 55
FIGURE7.1 U.S.Population Totals,1900–2050 245
FIGURE3.1 Data Quality Checklist 101
FIGURE7.2 U.S.Population Changes,
FIGURE3.2 Pie Chart:Sun City Neighborhood
1900–2010 247
Populations,2010 108
FIGURE7.3 Population of Wisconsin,1900–2010 249
FIGURE3.3 Bar Chart:Number of Households by Race,
Holly Hill,2010 109 FIGURE7.4 Wisconsin Population Changes,
1900–2010 250
FIGURE3.4 Histogram:Number of Households by Income,
Bayside,2010 109 FIGURE7.5 Population of a Growing Suburb,
1920–2010 250
FIGURE3.5 Dot Diagram:Number of Households by
Income,Bayside,2010 110 FIGURE7.6 Logarithm of Population of a Growing
Suburb,1920–2010 251
FIGURE3.6 Scatter Diagram:Rent versus Household
Income,Fairmont,2010 111 FIGURE7.7 The Tax Abatement for Development Decision
Diagram 278
FIGURE3.7 Time-Series Diagram:Number of Households
in Bayside,1920–2010 112 FIGURE7.8 Probabilities for Tax-Abatement
Outcomes 279
FIGURE3.8 The x and y Axes 114
FIGURE7.9 To Sell or Not Sell Land to the Highest
FIGURE4.1 The Basic Decision Sapling 150
Bidder 281
FIGURE4.2 Shall We Abate Taxes to Encourage
FIGURE8.1 Graph of Suitability Rankings 323
Downtown Developement? 151
ix