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Can Game Theory Save Us From Cyber Armageddon? Barry  Kouns,  CEO Risk  Based  Security [email protected] Overview • Game Theory Basics • Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) • Current State of Cyber Threats • Mutually Assured Cyber Destruction (MACD) • Lessons for the Office 2 ©  Copyright  2017  Risk  Based  Security,  Inc.  All  Rights  Reserved Quick Poll #1 • How many of you have been exposed to using game theory? • Did you use it to predict an outcome? • Any game theory experts with us? • How many of you know about MAD? 3 ©  Copyright  2017  Risk  Based  Security,  Inc.  All  Rights  Reserved Game Theory • Models conflict and cooperation between rational decision makers. • Assumes non-emotional behavior. • Predicts events as people act in their own best interests. 4 ©  Copyright  2017  Risk  Based  Security,  Inc.  All  Rights  Reserved Game Theory, In Essence … • A computer model that considers the options open to the ‘players’, determines their likely course of action, evaluates their ability to influence others and predicts the course of events. 5 ©  Copyright  2017  Risk  Based  Security,  Inc.  All  Rights  Reserved The Most Popular Game Theory Exercise? • The “Prisoners' Dilemma” is the most used example of game theory. • How many of you heard of it? • Anyone recognize the movie this picture is from? 6 ©  Copyright  2017  Risk  Based  Security,  Inc.  All  Rights  Reserved Prisoners’ Dilemma • Two persons were picked up on a suspicion of committing a crime. (They are both equally guilty, but the police have no proof). • Both are moved to separate holding areas and questioned. Both are offered deals to reduce their jail time if they confess and rat on the other. • Here's the game with the numbers representing years in prison. 7 ©  Copyright  2017  Risk  Based  Security,  Inc.  All  Rights  Reserved Prisoners’ Dilemma • Both prisoners would be better off if they both kept quiet. • Human nature seems to drive us to not trust the other and think “better to get 2 years than 5” and both confess/rat instead. 8 ©  Copyright  2017  Risk  Based  Security,  Inc.  All  Rights  Reserved Poll #2 • If Red and Blue were related would the result be different? • What if they were married? • Seems like knowledge of or trusting the other person is key. 9 ©  Copyright  2017  Risk  Based  Security,  Inc.  All  Rights  Reserved Forget the Prisoners, we had a Nuclear dilemma. MAD Mutually Assured Destruction

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Seems like knowledge of or trusting the other person is key. Poll #2. Page 10. MAD. Mutually Assured Destruction. Forget the Prisoners, we had a Has the fear of nuclear war been replaced with worrying about cyber war? 0. 2,000. 4,000. 6,000. 8,000. 10,000. 12,000. 14,000. 16,000. 18,000. 2007.
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Seems like knowledge of or trusting the other person is key. Poll #2. Page 10. MAD. Mutually Assured Destruction. Forget the Prisoners, we had a Has the fear of nuclear war been replaced with worrying about cyber war? 0. 2,000. 4,000. 6,000. 8,000. 10,000. 12,000. 14,000. 16,000. 18,000. 2007.

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