Table Of ContentAssessment and Management of
Environmental Risks
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SeriesIV:EarthandEnvironmentalSeries- Vol.4
Assessment and Management of
Environmental Risks
Cost-efficient Methods and Applications
editedby
Igor Linkov
ArthurD.Little, Inc.,
Cambridge,Massachusetts,U.S.A.and
Menzie-Cura&Associates, Inc.,U.S.A.
and
Jose Palma-Oliveira
UniversityofLisbon,Portugal
Kluwer Academic Publishers
Dordrecht / Boston / London
PublishedincooperationwithNATOScientificAffairsDivision
Proceedingsofthe NATOAdvanced ResearchWorkshopon
Assessmentand ManagementofEnvironmental Risks: MethodsandApplicationsin
Eastern EuropeanandDevelopingCountries
Lisbon, Portugal
October1-4,2000
AC.I.P.CataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheLibraryofCongress.
ISBN 1-4020-0024-3(HB)
ISBN 1-4020-0025-1 (PB)
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TABLEOFCONTENTS
Preface xi
Acknowledgements xv
Introduction
DevelopmentsandTrendsinEcologicalRiskAssessment 3
G. W. SuterII
HowMuch isTooMuch? ThoughtsabouttheUseofRiskAssessmentfor II
CountriesinTransitionand theDevelopingWorld
R.G. Bell, J. Wilson
ApplicationofRisk AssessmentinDifferentCountries 17
I Clarkson, S. Glaser, M. Kierski, T. Thomas, I Gaccetta, C. Campbell, C.
Orton, M. Wright, G.Longoni, A.Kwok
Part1. Methodsand ToolsforAssessmentandManagementof
EnvironmentalRisks
StreamliningtheRisk AssessmentProcess: Integrationof 31
GenericCriteriaandSite-SpecificRisk Assessment
c.L. Gaudet, JR. McCann, K.I. Adare, G.E. Nason
DerivationofAquaticToxicityValues inSupportofGroundwaterCriteria 41
DevelopmentforTrichlorofluoromethaneandDichlorodifluoromethane
H. Hristov, D. Manca
EcotoxicityofRiverandSpringSedimentAlongtheHanfordReach 49
D.A. Delistraty, J. Yokel
DeterminationofPrimaryand SecondaryResponses to Environmental Stressors 57
andBiotaHealth
v.M. Bresler, L. Fishelson, A. Abelson
RiskAssessmentfor BiologicalStressors 71
M.R. Powell
EndocrineDisruptorsandRisk Assessment 85
IJ. AmaralMendes, C. Travis, N. Olea
VI
ChernobylForests:Riskfrom WoodCombustion 93
A.I. Grebenkov, V. V. Rymkevich, A. A. Andrizhijevski, V. G. Goulo
AFrameworktoSupportInsurersonthe AssessmentofPollutionRisks 107
A.Salgueiro, P. Antunes, R. Santos, S. Martinho, G. Suter
IntegratedRisk AssessmentofChemicalMixtures 115
M. MacDonell
AComparativeRiskAssessmentMethodologyfor PrioritizingRisk 121
ManagementPolicyInitiatives: RankingofIndustrial WasteStreamsinPortugal
JA. Shatkin. C.A. Patton. JM. Palma-Oliveira
Methods andToolsfor AssessmentandManagementofEnvironmental Risks 143
(ReportoftheWorkingGrouponEnvironmentalRisk AssessmentMethodsand
Tools)
M. MacDonell, I. Holoubek
Part2.EnvironmentalRiskAssessment: Modelingand Uncertainty
ArmyRisk AssessmentModelingSystem(ARAMS) 155
M. S. Dortch
ApplicationoftheQUAL2EWaterQualityModel for UntreatedDischargeRisk 163
AssessmentinCentral andEasternEurope
IS. Iaworska, P. Masscheleyn, D.C. Mcavoy
ChemicalRiskAssessmentBasedonthe FrameworkofBasin-Wide Ecological 173
Modelingandthe Eco-Toxicological Index
A. Tokai. I Nakanishi
ModelingPollutantDiffusionwithaStatistical CharacterizationofWind 187
Conditions
O.Makarynskyy, D.Makarynska, A.A.Pires-Silva
RiskAssessmentinUkraine: New ApproachesandStrategyofDevelopment 195
K. Atoyev
UncertaintyinEnvironmentalRiskAssessment 203
(ReportoftheWorkingGrouponUncertainty Analysis)
I. S. Iaworska, T. S. Bridges
VII
Part3.EnvironmentalPoliciesand RiskAssessment
Environmental DecisionMakingInvolvingMultipleStakeholders 211
G. E. Apostolakis
ExpertJudgmentResolution InTechnically-Intensive 221
PolicyDisputes
L. J. Valverde, Jr.
AFrameworkfor theAssessmentandManagementofRisks inEastern 239
EuropeanandDevelopingCountries
L. Bucchini, D. E. Maher, D. M. Simonson
EcologicalRiskPerception: The"LocalUniversal"? 247
JM. Palma-Oliveira
TheDevelopmentand ApplicationofGuidelinesforEcologicalRisk 259
AssessmentinSouth Africa
M. Claassen, WF. Strydom, K. Murray, S. Jooste S, CG. Palmer
DevelopmentofaRiskBasedPolicyforContaminatedSitesoftheWalloon 267
Region, Belgium
H. Halen, A. Lox, E. Maes, M. Moutier
Risk Assessmentfor Agricultural Pollutants (Armenia): Modelling and Optimal 275
Control
V. Sargsyan
ProjectlORIS- EcologicalRisk Assessment- Regional Approaches 283
l. Holoubek, L. Dusek, M. Machala, K. Hilscherova, P. Cupr, K. Blaha
IntegratingScienceandPolicyInEnvironmentalRiskManagement 299
(ReportofthePolicyWorkingGroup)
1. A. Shatkin, L. J. Valverde, Jr., V. Sagrsyan, L. Bucchini
Part4.CaseStudiesinRiskAssessment
USAIOViewsonEnvironmentalRisks 309
(AComparativeViewto EnvironmentalAssessments)
CF. Maxwell
Environmental IssuesandRiskAssessmentApproachesinDeveloping 313
Countries
B. Raissouni
Vlll
OverviewoftheEgyptianRadiationMonitoringNetworkand Radioactivity 317
LevelsoftheEgyptianTerritories
A.B. Ramadan, S. A. El-Mongy
EnvironmentalRiskAssessmentfor IndustrialRegion inRussia 325
B.A.Korobitsin, V.N.Chukanov
In VitroRetentionofRadionuclides bytheMyceliumofEdibleFungi: Basisfor 331
SubsequentRiskAssessment
I. Druzhinina, W Kromp, M. Berreck, V. Karg
Environmental Pollution Trends and Impact to the Forest State and Growth in 341
Lithuania
R. Juknys
Assessment of Environmental N0 Exposure Effect On First Myocardial 349
2
InfarctionRisk InKaunas,Lithuania
R. Grazuleviciene, L. Jakucionyte, V. Malinauskiene
DrinkingWaterContaminationbyNitrateandLowBirthWeightRisk inRural 357
Population
L. Jakucionyte, R. Grazuleviciene, V. Rutkoviene
The Usage ofBiomarkers in Some Environmental and Occupational Chemical 363
ExposureCases inTurkey
A. E. Karakaya
RiskAssessmentoftheTurkishStraits 373
E. Kose, E. Basar
Risk Assessmentand EvaluationofMaterialsCommonlyUsed inDesalination 379
Plants
K. Habib, A. Fakhral-Deen
LimitationsandPerspectivesofRadioecological AssessmentForSoil-Plant 385
SystemsInGreece
G. Arapis, I. Massas, V. Skarlou
NuclearPowerPlantConflicts: ResponseStrategiesScenariosInRomaniaand 391
Bulgaria
B. Constantinescu, R. Bugoi
PredictionsofAircraftPollutantsfromExpandedFlight 397
OperationsAtEIToro,CA-APublicHealthIssue?
WR. Schell
IX
WholeLifeCycleRiskManagement 401
T. DeLemos, LT. DeAlmeida
Part5.PriorityAllocationinAreaofEcologicalRiskAssessment
ExpertJudgementElicitationInRisk Assessment 411
LH.J. Goossens, R.M. Cooke
PilotElicitationofExpertJudgmentsonPriorityAllocationin Areaof 427
EcologicalRisk Assessment
1. Linkov, K. Von Stackelberg, LH.J. Goossens
ListofParticipants 433
AuthorIndex 439
PREFACE
Managing environmental contamination requires decision makers to weigh eXlstmg
risks againstthepotentialeffectsofimplementingenvironmental policies- considering
both the benefits and disruptions that may result from different actions. The NATO
Advanced Research Workshop inLisbon was an importantstepin thedevelopmentand
applicationofcostefficientmethodsofriskassessmentespeciaIly within theconstraints
ofabudget. Thegoalofthe workshop was to evaluatethe potential for risk assessment
to serve as a unified and unifying technique in addressing a wide range of
environmental problems. Papers presented in this book discuss issues ranging from
specific and local studies (specific site, ecosystem, pollutant) to global decision and
management frameworks (watersheds, regions, integration of multiple poIlutants and
stressors); they develop arange ofapproachesstarting from specific methods to widely
applied public policies (Figure 1). The papers show that the use ofrisk assessment can
provide the scientific basis for environmentaIly sound and cost-efficient policies,
strategies, andsolutionstoourenvironmentalchaIlenges.
The organization of the Proceedings reflects sessions and discussions during
the workshop. The papers in the introductory Chapter summarizethe positions ofDrs.
Glenn Suter (EPA) and Jim Wilson (Resources for the Future) regarding whether the
use ofoften-expensive risk assessments in developing countries can bejustified, given
evolvingregulatory institutionsand limitedresources. Duringtheirdebate inLisbon, a
general agreement was reached that risks associated with environmental problems
should be considered in the development of environmental policies, while the
application of the specific methodologies (such as comparative risk assessment and
probabilistictechniques) should becase-specific andconsiderbenefit-costfactors.
Threetopicalchaptersofthebooksummarizeresults ofdiscussions in working
groups and plenary sessions. Each chapter reviews achievements, identify gaps in
current knowledge, and suggest priorities for future research in its topical area. Group
reports written by group chairs and rapporteurs, present a number of consensus
principlesand initiativesthatweresuggestedduringthegroupdiscussions.
The fourth chapter iIlustrates the application of risk and environmental
assessments in different countries. Many papers in this chapter cannot be classified
strictlyasrisk assessments, butthey presentthe interpretationand perceptionofrisks by
individual scientists as weIl as iIlustrate a wide variety of environmental problems in
developingcountries.
The book presents results of an individual expert elicitation exercise
conducted according to a protocol developed by Igor Linkov and Louis Goossens in
coIlaboration with Charles Menzie and Katherine von Stackelberg. Even though the
primary objective of this elicitation was to educate participants on available decision-
xi
