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ASSESSING AND MANAGING EARTHQUAKE RISK
GEOTECHNICAL, GEOLOGICAL AND EARTHQUAKE
ENGINEERING
Volume 2
Series Editor
Atilla Ansal, Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute,
Bo(cid:247)aziçi University, Istanbul, Turkey
Editorial Advisory Board
Julian Bommer, Imperial College London, U.K.
Jonathan D. Bray, University of California, Berkeley, U.S.A.
Kyriazis Pitilakis, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece
Susumu Yasuda, Tokyo Denki University, J apan
The titles published in this series are listed at the end of this volume
ASSESSING AND MANAGING
EARTHQUAKE RISK
Geo-scientific and Engineering Knowledge
for Earthquake Risk Mitigation:
developments, tools, techniques
edited by
CARLOS SOUSA OLIVEIRA
DECivil/ICIST, Instituto Superior Técnico,
Lisbon, Portugal
ANTONI ROCA
Institut Cartogràfic de Catalunya,
Barcelona, Spain
and
XAVIER GOULA
Institut Cartogràfic de Catalunya,
Barcelona, Spain
A C.I.P.Catalogue record for this book is available from the Library of Congress.
ISBN-13 978-1-4020-3524-1 (HB)
ISBN-13 978-1-4020-3608-8 (e-book)
Published by Springer,
P.O.Box 17, 3300 AADordrecht, The Netherlands.
www.springer.com
02-1207-200ts
Printed on acid-free paper
All Rights Reserved
© 2006, 2008 Springer
No part of this work may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted
in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming,
recording or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher, with the exception
of any material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered
and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work.
This book is dedicated to our families for their support and for the many hours we have
taken from them.
PREFACE BY BRUCE A. BOLT
Population growth, modern economic developments, real-time communication, and
industrial interdependence among countries have sharpened the impact of natural disasters.
Never before have such calamities and miseries been given intense global publicity. The
result is a realization that much can be done through rational study and foresight to mitigate
these risks to life and social well being. This conclusion is particularly true for the risk due
to great earthquakes.
This book is particularly valuable in that it presents novel disciplinary approaches to both
the mitigation of earthquake risk and post-earthquake management of the disasters. The
editors have been successful in attracting a list of distinguished and experienced expositors
who present a broad range of critical problems on estimating seismic risk, reacting to it, and
reducing it, and on assessing and repairing the damage. Often in encyclopedic treatments
that utilize separate authors in separate chapters there is substantial unevenness in the clarity
and accessibility of the presentations. In this book, appropriate guidance by the Editors on
the scope and presentation has ensured that the text is suitable for students and professionals
with geological, engineering, and architectural backgrounds, as well as, at least in part,
managers of earthquake emergency agencies. The emphasis is on examples from Europe.
This aspect is helpful to the audience whose knowledge of seismic risk has been restricted to
the professional problems in North America, emphasized in many previous textbooks.
Aspects of the presentation that will be found particularly useful are the description of the
latest methods for use of the Internet and digital early warning systems. Many Chapters
highlight the present wide availability of relatively inexpensive communication systems that
allow rapid damage assessment and response. Such systems were available, for example, in
the 1999 Chi Chi earthquake, Taiwan, but not in the 2004 Sumatra tragedy.
Another attractive element is the discussion of the role of insurance in encouraging the
adoption of seismic building codes, as well as in pooling capital to allow the spreading of
public losses. The book also contains guidelines for probability assessments, often not
explained in available textbooks on earthquake risk. Many readers will also find helpful the
discussions of the synthesis of modern probability hazard estimation with vulnerability
calculations in order to predict risk. Because seismic risk assessment involves uncertainty
and judgment and often foreshadows significant expense, the subject must be approached in
a critical way so that controversy is not hidden and uncertainties can be incorporated
explicitly into the mitigation of the dangers.
Bruce A. Bolt†
Professor of Seismology Emeritus, University of California, Berkeley, USA
Since the writing of the preface, Prof. Bruce A. Bolt has passed away. The editors
wish to express their great respect for him for all his work in the field of Seismology.
He was a master and a friend for us.
vii
PREFACEBY ALFONSO LÓPEZ ARROYO
A new book, on any scientific matter, raises two main previous questions to the reader: one
related with the interest of its subject matter at the time of publication (its opportunity); and
a second one that refers to the value of the contents.
I have no doubt that the book now presented comes on time, as it includes chapters on all
problems identified along many years as crucial in the study of earthquake risk and on the
development of measures to reduce damage from it.
It may be worth to note that the order accepted in the book for the first three parts
corresponds both, with that to be followed in the applications and, also, with the historical
development of the earthquake studies from Greek and Latin philosophers to present times.
The inclusion of a part on managing the earthquake risk adds a further interest to the book,
as contributions towards the solution of this problem are not common in the earthquake
bibliography. Such management of risk includes actions of quite different types. This is
well described in Part IV which gives several practical examples that may guide the
application to problems related to several scenarios.
The scenarios shown in Part V might guide the approach to other practical cases.
As a final comment, I consider the book an excellent approach to the solution and
management of problems related with the action of earthquakes.
Alfonso López Arroyo
Past-President of the Spanish Association of Earthquake Engineering
ix
EDITORS’ NOTE
The joint participation of the editors in the execution of several EU projects in the last
five years such as EuroSeisTest, EuroSeisMod, EuroSeisRisk, ISARD and Risk-UE,
and in the organisation of different scientific sections on International Meetings, as the
European Geophysical Society Assemblies in the period 1999-2003 has triggered the
idea of this Book. The large number of recent damaging earthquakes in the
neighbouring of European region has pushed us to assemble this volume, hoping to
contribute for formation and information of professionals, students and public in
general, necessary for the mitigation of such an important risk.
The present book could not be finalized without the participation and interest of many
individuals. We would like to acknowledge, first of all, the authors and friends involved
in the preparation of their chapters, not only for their contribution but also for the many
discussions on different aspects of the book’s content. We would also like to
acknowledge the two institutions where the editors develop their professional activity,
the Instituto Superior Técnico in Lisbon (Carlos Sousa Oliveira) and the Institut
Cartogràfic de Catalunya in Barcelona (Antoni Roca and Xavier Goula), for their
support and logistics made available, and to Springer for promoting this Project. Last
but not least, we would like to thank our dear friends María José Mejón and Teresa
Susagna for their highly valuable support and help in the many phases of the book
preparation and edition processing.
We thank Petra van Steenbergen and Mieke van der Fluit (first at Kluwer) and Maria
Jonckheere, all from Springer, for their support and permanent motivation.
Carlos Sousa Oliveira, Antoni Roca and Xavier Goula
Lisbon and Barcelona, March 2005
xi
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Preface by Bruce A. Bolt…………………………………….…..….....… .…..…..... .. vii
Preface by Alfonso López Arroyo……………………………………….…..…..... .... ix
Editors ’Note……………………………………….…..….....… …………….…..….. xi
Chapter 1. Assessing and managing earthquake risk. An introduction
C. S. Oliveira, A. Roca and X. Goula
1.1. Organization of the Book………………………………………….………...... 1
1.2. Natural Hazards. Earthquakes……………………………………….…..…..... 2
1.3. Earthquake prediction and prevention…………………………………...…..... 5
1.4. Construction practices and urban planning……………………………..…...... 6
1.4.1. New constructions and existing building stock….………………........… 6
1.4.2. Building codes…………………………………………………............... 6
1.4.3. Insurance…………………………………...……………………............ 7
1.4.4. Urban planning…………………………………………………............. 7
1.5. Emergency planning and managing……………………………………..…..... 8
1.5.1. Planning……………………………………………………………....… 8
1.5.2. Managing disaster recovery……………..………………………........... 8
1.6. Reinforcing and reconstruction of the building stock……………....…..…….. 10
1.7. Philosophies and policies……………………………………………...…..….. 10
1.8. Lessons learned from recent earthquakes.………………………………......… 11
1.9. Political considerations………………………………………………...…...…. 11
1.10. Education and mass media risk communication………………….....………. 12
1.11. Definitions of some basic concepts.................................................................. 12
PART I: EARTHQUAKE HAZARD AND STRONG MOTION
Chapter 2. Overview on earthquake hazard assessment - methods and new trends
C. S. Oliveira and A. Campos-Costa
2.1. Introduction……………………………………………………….………....... 15
2.2. Historical evolution of methods…………………..………………………....... 15
2.2.1. Generalities …………………………………………………….............. 15
2.2.2. Methods…………………………………………………...…….............. 16
2.3. Fundamentals of seismic hazard analysis……………….……………...……... 19
2.3.1. Deterministic versus probabilistic methods............................................. 19
2.3.2. Cornell method using seismogenetic sources………………….….…....... 21
2.3.3. Empirical method (extreme value distributions of the catalogue events) 27
xiii
