Arms Control and Europe: New Challenges and Prospects for Strategic Stability

175 Pages·2022·2.442 MB·English

by  Polina Sinovets, William Alberque

Contributions to International Relations
Polina Sinovets
William Alberque   Editors
Arms Control
and Europe
New Challenges and Prospects
for Strategic Stability
Contributions to International Relations
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(cid:129)
Polina Sinovets William Alberque
Editors
Arms Control and Europe
New Challenges and Prospects for Strategic
Stability
Editors
PolinaSinovets WilliamAlberque
DepartmentofInternationalRelations, InternationalInstituteforStrategicStudies
OdesaCenterforNonproliferation Berlin,Germany
OdesaI.I.MechnikovNationalUniversity
Odesa,Ukraine
ISSN2731-5061 ISSN2731-507X (electronic)
ContributionstoInternationalRelations
ISBN978-3-031-03890-7 ISBN978-3-031-03891-4 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-03891-4
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Contents
Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
PolinaSinovets,WilliamAlberque,andBenjaminHautecouverture
PartI TheUS,Russia:NewChallengesandStrategicStability
inEurope
TheUSArmsControlAgenda:ImpactonEurope. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
WilliamAlberque
Russia’sForeignandSecurityPolicy:TheEvolutionoftheEscalation
Strategy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
PolinaSinovetsandValeriiaHesse
TheCrisisofNuclearArmsControlamidRussia’sMilitaryOffense
AgainstUkraine. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
PetrTopychkanov
RussiaandConventionalArmsControlinEurope. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
MykolaBielieskov
NewTechnologiesandNuclearDeterrence. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
TomMcKane
PartII ExtendedDeterrenceandArmsControlinEurope
TheNuclearUmbrellainEurope. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
TomSauer
NuclearDeterrenceandStrategicStabilityinEurope:French
PositionsandPerceptions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
BenjaminHautecouverture
v
vi Contents
TheUK’sCurrentForceStructureandPosture. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
TimothyWright
Germany’sPositionontheFutureofExtendedDeterrenceand
ArmsControlintheEuro-AtlanticRegion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
JuliaBerghofer
ArmsControlinEuropeandExtendedDeterrence:AViewfrom
Turkey. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99
ŞebnemUdum
PartIII RegionalDimensionsofStrategicStabilityinEurope
SecurityandDefensePolicyofUkraineintheMainProvisions
andObjectivesofitsStrategicDocuments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
OlgaBrusylovska
Ukraine’sPolicytowardRegimesofNon-ProliferationandArms
Control. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
OleksiiIzhak
StrategicRiskReductionintheBlackSeaRegion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141
PolinaSinovetsandValeriiaHesse
RegionalApproachestoStrengtheningtheEasternFlankofNATO:
CaseofPolandandRomania. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
IrynaMaksymenko
IranianNuclearProgramandItsImpactontheEuropeanSecurity
System. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
PolinaSinovets,YarynaZavada,andValeriiaGergiieva
About the Editors
WilliamAlberque istheDirectoroftheStrategy,Technology,andArms Control
ProgrammeattheInternationalInstituteforStrategicStudiesinBerlin,focusingon
nuclear deterrence and nonproliferation, arms control, risk reduction, and other
international security issues. He previously served as the Director of NATO’s
Arms Control, Disarmament, and Non-Proliferation Centre, and worked for the
US Government for more than two decades on nuclear security and safeguards,
WMD nonproliferation, arms control, CSBMs, SALW, CBRN defence, pandemic
response,andnuclearaccidentresponse.
Mykola Bielieskov is a Research Fellow (Defense Policy Department) at the
National Institute for Strategic Studies under the President of Ukraine, Kyiv,
Ukraine. Aquired MA in international relations in2016. From September2016 till
September 2019, he worked in Ukrainian NGO “Institute of World Policy” as an
analyst. Mr. Bielieskov’s fileds of interests include Ukrainian and Russian Armed
Forces,evolutionofoperationalart.
JuliaBerghofer isaPolicyFellowwiththeEuropeanLeadershipNetwork(ELN)
andacoordinatoroftheELN’sYoungerGenerationLeadersNetwork(YGLN).Her
research focus is on nuclear arms control, NATO-Russia relations, and threat
perceptions in the Euro-Atlantic area. Previously, she was a Research Assistant
with the Berlin-based Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) and a Project
Assistant with the Munich Security Conference. She has a background in political
sciences, communication sciences, and journalism. She is the Vice-chair of the
YGLNandanalumnaoftheFrenchRéseaunucléaireetstratégie—nouvellegénér-
ation(RNS-NG).
OlgaBrusylovska isaProfessor(2012),Doctor(PoliticalScience,2008).Shehas
beenworkingattheOdesaMechnikovNationalUniversity(ONU)since1991;Head
of the International Relations Department since 2015. She defended her Doctoral
Thesis(specialty23.00.04—PoliticalProblemsofInternationalSystemsandGlobal
vii
viii AbouttheEditors
Development)attheInstituteofWorldEconomyandInternationalRelations(Kyiv),
on the topic “Political-Systemic Transformation in the Region of Eastern Europe.
1989-2004".Sheistheauthorofmorethan80scientificpublications.Memberofthe
editorial board of the academic journals: “International and Political Studies”
(Odesa, Ukraine), “Political Life” (Vinnytsia, Ukraine), “Politology Bulletin”
(Kyiv,Ukraine),“Transformations”(Warsaw,Poland),electronicacademicjournal
“RhetoricandCommunication”(Sofia,Bulgaria);amemberoftheReviewBoardof
the academic journals “Strategic Review” (Poznan, Poland) and “Bulletin of Lviv
NationalUniversity.InternationalRelationsSeries”(Lviv,Ukraine).
ValeriiaGergiieva isaResearchFellowoftheOdesaCenterforNonproliferation
(OdCNP). In 2019, she was a Visiting Fellow at the James Martin Center for
Nonproliferation Studies (CNS), Monterey, California. There she made a research
ontopic“NonproliferationandRealpolitik:CasesofIranandNorthKorea”.Valeriia
isaPh.D.Candidate,DepartmentofInternationalRelations,OdesaI.I.Mechnikov
National University and has an MA degree in international relations, Odesa
I.I. Mechnikov National University, 2015. Her scientific interests are—Nuclear
programmesofIranandNorthKorea,theUSNonproliferationpolicy,Deterrence.
BenjaminHautecouverture isaSeniorResearchFellowattheFondationpourla
Recherche Stratégique (Paris,France). He isalso a Technical DirectoratExpertise
France(fortheEuropeanUnion’soutreachprogrammeontheArmsTradeTreaty).
He is a senior fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. He is one of the
founders of the European Union Consortium on Non-Proliferation and Disarma-
ment.HeusedtobealectureratSciencePoParisandattheEcolePolytechniquein
Paris.Hisareasoffocushaveincludedthestudyofstrategicrelationsbetweenstates,
nuclear deterrence, nonproliferation and disarmament (WMD and conventional
weapons),thenuclearproliferationphenomenon,nuclearandballisticproliferation
crises, for twenty years. He is also working on nuclear security, the chemical
weapons prohibition regime, and the European Union security and defence chal-
lengesandprospects.Heistheauthorofseveralbooksincollaborationandregularly
publishesarticlesonmajorinternationalsecurityissues.
Valeriia Hesse is a non-resident fellow at the Odesa Center for Nonproliferation
(OdCNP)andaconsultantatAtomicReporters.Shehasexperienceasaconsultant
attheWorldInstituteforNuclearSecurity(WINS)andaninternattheDivisionof
ConceptsandPlanningattheInternationalAtomicEnergyAgency(IAEA)Depart-
ment of Safeguards. Valeriia is a Fulbright Scholar. She obtained her Master’s
degreeinNonproliferationandInternationalSecurityfromtheUniversityofGeorgia
(USA). She also was a visiting researcher at the James Martin Center for Nonpro-
liferationStudiesandaresearchinternattheCarnegieEndowmentforInternational
PeaceinWashingtonDC.Nuclearnonproliferationhasalwaysbeenherprofessional
focus. This interest started in 2010 when she was an undergraduate student at the
OdesaI.I.MechnikovNationalUniversity,Ukraine,andattendedtheOdesaStudent
Seminar on International Security. Her career path started from a junior researcher
positionatOdCNP.
AbouttheEditors ix
Oleksii Izhak is a head of the department of the National Institute for Strategic
Studies.BeforestartinghiscareeratNISS,heworkedinthedefenceindustry.Heis
analumnusoftheGeorgeC.MarshallEuropeanCenterforSecurityStudies.Inhis
currentposition,hismainresponsibilityispreparinganalysisonsecurityissuesfor
state bodies of Ukraine, including contributions to reports used for preparing mes-
sagesofthePresidentofUkrainetoParliament.Heisaco-authorofseveralmono-
graphs and an author of a number of articles on national and international security
andrelationsinprofessionaljournalsandperiodicals.
IrynaMaksymenko holdsaPh.D.inPoliticalScienceandisanAssociateProfes-
sor of the International Relations Department, Odesa Mechnikov National Univer-
sity(ONU),Ukraine.Startingfrom2001,sheisaseniorresearchfellowattheCenter
for International Studies. She has also working experience as a senior research
fellowattheOdesaRegionalBranchoftheNationalInstituteforStrategicStudies,
DepartmentofRegionalStudies(2004–2015).Since2009,shehasbeenparticipat-
ing in security and nonproliferation meetings carried out in the ONU in close
cooperationwiththeSwedishRadiationSafetyAuthority.SheisanAdministrative
Coordinator for organization and realization of different events and projects on
nonproliferation, arms control, and nuclear security at the Odesa Center for Non-
proliferation at the ONU ( since 2015). Her research and teaching interests are
Ukraine’s foreign and security policy, EU foreign and security policy, and conflict
studies. She is the author of numerous academic and analytical papers and book
chapters.
TomMcKane isaDistinguishedFellowoftheRoyalUnitedServicesInstituteand
aVisitingSeniorFellowattheLondonSchoolofEconomicsandPoliticalScience
(LSE). He is also a senior member of the European Leadership Network. Since
retiringfromtheUKMinistryofDefence,Tomhasdividedhistimebetweenthink
tankworkandconsultingondefenceissues,particularlyonpolicyandstrategyand
howtotranslatepolicyintopracticalaction.Tomhaspublished articles onnuclear
culture,NATO,andEuropeandefence,andcontributedtoarticlesonBritishdefence
reviewsandhybridwarfare.Heregularlyundertakeslecturingandmentoringcom-
mitmentswithCranfieldUniversity,LSEIDEAS,andtheRoyalCollegeofDefence
Studies. Between 2008 and 2014, Tom was, successively, a Director General for
StrategyandaDirectorGeneralforSecurityPolicyintheUKMinistryofDefence
(MOD).In2012,hewasbrieflytheactingPermanentSecretaryoftheMinistry.He
ledtheMOD’scontributiontothe2010StrategicDefenceandSecurityReviewand
was the Ministry’s principal adviser on all aspects of defence policy, including
multilateralandbilateraldefencerelations.
Tom Sauer is a Professor in International Politics at the Universiteit Antwerpen
(Belgium). Sauer is specialized in international security, and more in particular in
nucleararmscontrol,proliferation,anddisarmament.Hehaspublishedninebooks,
dozens of academic journal articles, and more than 200 opinion articles. His latest
co-edited book is titled Non-Nuclear Peace. Beyond the Nuclear Ban Treaty