Arab Revolution in the 21st Century?: Lessons From Egypt and Tunisia

208 Pages·2016·2.85 MB·English

by  Nader Fergany (auth.)

Arab Revolution in the 21st Century?

Arab Revolution in the 21st
Century?
Lessons from Egypt and Tunisia
Nader Fergany
ARAB REVOLUTION IN THE 21ST CENTURY?
Copyright © Nader Fergany 2016
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2016 978-1-137-57491-6
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First published 2016 by
PALGRAVE MACMILLAN
The author has asserted their right to be identified as the author of this
work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
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E-PUB ISBN: 978–1–137–59093–0
E-PDF ISBN: 978–1–137–59094–7
ISBN 978-1-349-99535-6 ISBN 978-1-137-59094-7 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-1-137-59094-7
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Names: Fergany, Nader, author.
Title: Arab revolution in the 21st century? : lessons from Egypt and Tunisia /
Nader Fergany.
Description: New York : Palgrave Macmillan, 2016. | Includes bibliographical
references and index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2015029316 |ISBN 978-1-349-99535-6
Subjects: LCSH: Arab Spring, 2010—History. | Arab countries—Politics
and government—21st century. | Egypt—History—Protests, 2011– |
Tunisia—History—Demonstrations, 2010– | BISAC: POLITICAL
SCIENCE / Political Freedom & Security / Civil Rights. | POLITICAL
SCIENCE / International Relations / General. | POLITICAL SCIENCE /
Peace. | POLITICAL SCIENCE / Political Freedom & Security /
General. | POLITICAL SCIENCE / Political Ideologies / General.
Classification: LCC DS39.3 .F37 2016 | DDC 909/.097492708312—dc23
LC record available at http://lccn.loc.gov/2015029316
A catalogue record for the book is available from the British Library.
T he Arab Liberation Tide (ALT) may yet prove to be a historic
opportunity for human renaissance in the Arab World—or,
alternatively, a disaster of epic proportions.

Contents
List of Figures ix
Preface xi
Acknowledgments xv
List of Abbreviations and Acronyms xvii
Introduction 1
Part 1 ALT, State and Prospects
1 State of the Arab Liberation Tide: Origins, Features,
Extent of Success of Popular Uprisings, Implications,
and Future Prospects 21
2 Why Did the Arab Popular Uprisings Erupt? 39
3 To Falter or Not to Falter, Lessons from Egypt and Tunisia 77
4 Injustice Persists, Even after ALT Popular Revolts 103
5 The Worst Case Scenario, Protracted Regional War Likely
to Escalate and a Fragmented New Map of the Region 115
6 Two Additional Major Impediments to Sustainable
Human Development 125
Part 2 Contours of the Human Renaissance Scenario
Introduction to Part 2 139
7 Essential Features of a Human Renaissance Path 141
Conclusion 157
viii Contents
Appendix 1 159
Appendix 2 161
Appendix 3 165
Notes 167
References 187
Index 193
Figures
1.1 Date of onset of popular uprisings of the ALT 22
2.1 P osition of Arab region among different world regions
on “voice and accountability” indicator, 2002 42
2.2 VAC level, Arab countries compared to Norway
and Switzerland, around 2010 43
2.3 Exclusion of girls from primary education in
Arab countries, in thousands, around 2010 49
2.4 Estimate of unemployment rate (% of labor force)
Arab countries, around 2010 51
2.5 Youth (15–24) unemployment rate as a percentage of the
total unemployment rate, Arab countries, around 2010 52
2.6 Sex differential in exclusion from primary education,
Arab countries, around 2010 56
2.7a Average IFF from Arab countries, more than $1 billion
per year, $ millions, 2002–2011 61
2.7b Average IFF from Arab countries, less than $1 billion
per year, $ millions, 2002–2011 62
2.8 Annual IFFs from some Arab countries, $ millions,
2002–2011 63
2.9 Annual IFFs from Egypt, $ millions, 2002–2011 64
2.10 Annual IFFs from Syria, $ millions, 2002–2011 65
2.11 Scatter diagrams of the two statistically
significant regressors 73
4.1 Illiteracy and “no educational attainment,” individuals
aged ten years or older, HIECS 2004/2005,
2010/2011, and 2012/2013 106
4.2 “No educational attainment” by age groups, individuals
aged ten years or older, HIECS 2004/2005,
2010/2011, and 2012/2013 107
4.3 Illiteracy and “no educational attainment” by gender and
urban/rural residence, individuals aged ten years or
older, HIECS 2004/2005, 2010/2011, and 2012/2013 108