Table Of ContentApplied Systems Analysis
Advanced Research in Reliability and
System Assurance Engineering
Series Editor:
Mangey Ram
Professor, Graphic Era University, Uttarakhand, India
Modeling and Simulation Based Analysis in Reliability Engineering
Edited by Mangey Ram
Reliability Engineering
Theory and Applications
Edited by Ilia Vonta and Mangey Ram
System Reliability Management
Solutions and Technologies
Edited by Adarsh Anand and Mangey Ram
Reliability Engineering
Methods and Applications
Edited by Mangey Ram
Reliability Management and Engineering
Challenges and Future Trends
Edited by Harish Garg and Mangey Ram
Applied Systems Analysis
Science and Art of Solving Real-Life Problems
F. P. Tarasenko
Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering
Lirong Cui, Ilia Frenkel, and Anatoly Lisnianski
For more information about this series, please visit: https://www.crcpress.com/
Advanced-Research-in-Reliability-and-System-Assurance-Engineering/book-
series/CRCARRSAE
Applied Systems Analysis
Science and Art of Solving
Real-Life Problems
F. P. Tarasenko
First edition published 2021
by CRC Press
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and by CRC Press
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Previously published in Russian entitled, “Applied Systems Analysis”, by Knorus Publisher, Russia.
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Names: Tarasenko, F. P. (Feliks Petrovich), author.
Title: Applied systems analysis : science and art of solving real-life
problems / F.P. Tarasenko.
Description: Boca Raton : CRC Press, 2020. | Series: Advanced research in
reliability and system assurance engineering | Includes bibliographical
references and index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2020009183 (print) | LCCN 2020009184 (ebook) |
ISBN 9780367472399 (hbk) | ISBN 9781003054290 (ebk)
Subjects: LCSH: System analysis.
Classification: LCC T57.6 .T38 2020 (print) | LCC T57.6 (ebook) |
DDC 620.001/1—dc23
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2020009183
LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2020009184
ISBN: 978-0-367-47239-9 (hbk)
ISBN: 978-1-003-05429-0 (ebk)
Typeset in Times
by codeMantra
Contents
Preface.......................................................................................................................xi
Acknowledgments ..................................................................................................xiii
Author ......................................................................................................................xv
Introduction: How Appeared the Systems Analysis ..............................................xvii
Part I Systems thinking: Four Basic
Concepts of applied Systems analysis
Chapter 1 The Problem and Methods of Its Solution ............................................3
1.1 P roblem-Solving Options ..........................................................3
1.2 Ways to Influence the Subject....................................................4
1.3 Intervention in Reality ...............................................................6
1.4 Three Types of Ideologies .........................................................7
1.5 Is Improving Intervention Feasible? ..........................................9
1.6 Four Types of Improving Interventions ...................................10
1.7 More about Applied Systems Analysis ....................................14
Questions and Tasks ................................................................15
Chapter 2 The Concept of the System ................................................................17
2.1 Static Properties of the System ................................................18
2.2 Dynamic Properties of the System ..........................................23
2.3 Synthetic Properties of the System ..........................................28
2.4 C onclusion (systems picture of the world) ...............................35
Questions and Tasks ................................................................35
Chapter 3 Models and Modeling .........................................................................37
3.1 Modeling Is an Integral Part of Any Activity .........................37
3.2 Analysis and Synthesis as Model Building Methods ..............39
3.3 What Is a Model? .....................................................................41
3.4 Analytical Approach to the Concept of a Model .....................41
3.5 Classification is the Simplest Abstract Model of the
Diversity of Reality .................................................................44
3.6 Artificial and Natural Classifications ......................................45
3.7 R eal Models .............................................................................48
3.8 Synthetic Approach to the Concept of a Model ......................49
3.9 The Concept of Adequacy .......................................................51
v
vi Contents
3.10 The Coherence of the Model with the Culture ........................51
3.11 Hierarchy of Models ................................................................52
Questions and Tasks ................................................................53
Chapter 4 Control ................................................................................................55
4.1 Analytical Approach: Five Components of Control ................55
4.2 Stage of Finding the Desired Control Action ..........................57
4.3 Synthetic Approach to Control: Seven Types of Control ........58
4.4 S ummary .................................................................................67
Questions and Tasks ................................................................68
Part I References ....................................................................................................69
Part II Systems Practice: technology
of applied Systems analysis
Chapter 5 Technology of Applied Systems Analysis ..........................................73
5.1 Operations of Systems Analysis ..............................................73
5.2 About Various Options for Solving Problems .........................75
5.2.1 Stage One. Fixation of the Problem and Problem
Situation ......................................................................76
Questions and Tasks ................................................................77
5.2.2 Stage Two. Diagnosing Problems ...............................77
Questions and Tasks ................................................................78
5.2.3 Stage Three. Making a List of Stakeholders ..............78
5.2.3.1 Difficulties in Compiling a List of
Stakeholders ................................................80
5.2.3.2 Tips to Facilitate the Work .........................81
Questions and Tasks ................................................................83
5.2.4 Stage Four. Revelation of the Problem Mess ..............83
5.2.4.1 Technologies for Identifying the Mess .......84
5.2.4.2 Structuring the Mess ...................................87
5.2.4.3 Participation of Stakeholders in the
Analysis ......................................................90
Questions and Tasks ................................................................91
5.2.5 Stage Five. Definition of Configurator .......................91
Questions and Tasks ................................................................94
5.2.6 Stage Six. Revelation of Stakeholders’ Purposes .......94
5.2.6.1 Danger of Substitution of Targets ...............95
5.2.6.2 The Danger of Mixing Goals and Means ...96
5.2.6.3 The Danger of Incomplete
Enumeration of Goals .................................97
Contents vii
5.2.6.4 The Danger of Not Being Able to
Express a Goal ............................................97
5.2.6.5 Peculiarities of Identifying the Goals
of the Organization .....................................99
5.2.6.6 Techniques of Work with Goals ...............101
Questions and Tasks ..............................................................102
5.2.7 Stage Seven. Definition of Criteria ...........................102
Questions and Tasks ..............................................................104
5.2.8 Stage Eight. Experimental Study of Systems ...........104
Questions and Tasks ..............................................................114
5.2.9 Stage Nine. Building and Improving Models ...........114
Questions and Tasks ..............................................................116
5.2.10 Stage Ten. Generating Alternatives ..........................117
Questions and Tasks ..............................................................131
5.2.11 Stage Eleven. Choice or Decision-Making ..............131
5.2.11.1 An Overview of the Most Common
Situations of Choice and the
Decision-Making Methods Used in
Various Cases ...........................................133
Questions and Tasks ..............................................................149
5.2.12 Stage Twelve. Implementation of Improving
Intervention ..............................................................149
Questions and Tasks ..............................................................161
Part II References ................................................................................................163
Part III Brief review of results of
Systemology in the 20th Century
Chapter 6 The Current Stage of Development of Systems Thinking:
The Transition from the Ideology of the Machine Age to the
Ideology of the Systems Age ............................................................167
6.1 Initial Ideas about the Structure of the Universe ...................167
6.2 The Peculiarity of the Human System: The Culture of
the Subject as “Second Nature” .............................................168
6.3 The Development of the Model of the Universe:
A Paradigm Shift ...................................................................170
Questions and Tasks ..............................................................173
Chapter 7 Elements of Systems Statics .............................................................175
7.1 Integrity (combined with openness, functionality,
expediency, and emergence) ..................................................175
viii Contents
7.2 Openness (combined with feasibility and functionality) .......176
7.3 Distinctiveness of parts (in combination with
functionality and purposefulness) .........................................180
7.4 Structuredness (in combination with the internal
heterogeneity of the system, its openness, functionality,
emergence, and purposefulness) ............................................182
Questions and Tasks ..............................................................187
Chapter 8 Elements of Systems Dynamics .......................................................189
8.1 Functionality (in conjunction with
structuring, purposefulness, and stimulating) .......................189
8.2 Stimulation (in combination with internal heterogeneity,
structuring, functionality, and purposefulness) .....................190
8.3 System Variability Over Time (in combination with
internal heterogeneity, structuring, functioning, and
development of the system) ...................................................202
8.4 Factors Determining the Behavior of Systems ......................204
8.4.1 Flows and Stocks of Resources ................................205
8.4.2 Qualitative Models of Complex Systems
Dynamics: Archetypes of Behavior .........................205
8.4.3 On Mathematical Modeling of Dynamics of
Complex Systems. Synergetics .................................219
8.4.3.1 Order and Chaos in Nature .......................221
8.4.3.2 Attractors ..................................................223
8.4.3.3 F ractals......................................................225
Questions and Tasks ..............................................................232
Chapter 9 Elements of Complexity Theory ......................................................233
9.1 Formation of the Concept of Complexity. Range of
Difficulties .............................................................................233
9.2 Classification of the Complexity Types .................................234
9.2.1 Classification According to the Degree of
Objective Complexity in the Behavior of the
Controlled Object .....................................................234
9.2.2 Complexity Classification of Types of Models of
the Managed System ................................................235
9.2.2.1 The Complexity Caused by the Large
Dimension of the Composition Model ......235
9.2.2.2 The Complexity Caused by the
Inadequacy of the Structure Model ..........236
9.2.2.3 T he Complexity Caused by Incomplete
Information in the Combined Operating
Model of the Managed System ...................236
Contents ix
9.2.2.4 The Complexity Produced by
Probabilistic Uncertainty ..........................237
9.2.2.5 The Complexity Associated with
“Vague” Uncertainty ................................238
Questions and Tasks ..............................................................240
9.3 Conclusion .............................................................................240
Part III References...............................................................................................241
Index ......................................................................................................................243
