Table Of ContentAgent-Based Social Systems 14
Aki-Hiro Sato Editor
Applications of
Data-Centric
Science to
Social Design
Qualitative and Quantitative
Understanding of Collective Human
Behavior
Agent-Based Social Systems
Volume 14
EditorinChief
HiroshiDeguchi,Yokohama,Japan
SeriesEditors
Shu-HengChen,Taipei,Taiwan
ClaudioCioffi-Revilla,Fairfax,USA
NigelGilbert,Guildford,UK
HajimeKita,Kyoto,Japan
TakaoTerano,Yokohama,Japan
KyoichiKijima,Tokyo,Japan
SetsuyaKurahashi,Tokyo,Japan
ManabuIchikawa,Saitama,Japan
ShingoTakahashi,Tokyo,Japan
MotonariTanabu,Yokohama,Japan
Aki-HiroSato,Yokohama,Japan
This series is intended to further the creation of the science of agent-based social
systems, a field that is establishing itself as a transdisciplinary and cross-cultural
science. The series will cover a broad spectrum of sciences, such as social sys-
tems theory, sociology, business administration, management information science,
organizationscience,computationalmathematicalorganizationtheory,economics,
evolutionary economics, international political science, jurisprudence, policy sci-
ence, socioinformation studies, cognitive science, artificial intelligence, complex
adaptivesystemstheory,philosophyofscience,andotherrelateddisciplines.
The series will provide a systematic study of the various new cross-cultural
arenas of the human sciences. Such an approach has been successfully tried
several times in the history of the modern science of humanities and systems
and has helped to create such important conceptual frameworks and theories as
cybernetics, synergetics, general systems theory, cognitive science, and complex
adaptivesystems.
Wewanttocreateaconceptualframeworkanddesigntheoryforsocioeconomic
systemsofthetwenty-firstcenturyinacross-culturalandtransdisciplinarycontext.
Forthispurposeweplantotakeanagent-basedapproach.Developedoverthelast
decade, agent-based modeling is a new trend within the social sciences and is a
child of the modern sciences of humanities and systems. In this series the term
“agent-based” is used across a broad spectrum that includes not only the classical
usage of the normative and rational agent but also an interpretive and subjective
agent. We seek the antinomy of the macro and micro, subjective and rational,
functional and structural,bottom-up and top-down, global and local, and structure
and agency within the social sciences. Agent-based modeling includes both sides
oftheseopposites.“Agent”isourgroundingformodeling;simulation,theory,and
realworldgroundingarealsorequired.
As an approach, agent-based simulation is an important tool for the new
experimentalfieldsofthesocialsciences;itcanbeusedtoprovideexplanationsand
decision support for real-world problems, and its theories include both conceptual
andmathematicalones.Aconceptualapproachisvitalforcreatingnewframeworks
of the worldview, and the mathematical approach is essential to clarify the logical
structureofanynewframeworkormodel.Explorationofseveraldifferentwaysof
real-world grounding is required for this approach. Other issues to be considered
intheseriesincludethesystemsdesignofthiscentury’sglobalandlocalsocioeco-
nomicsystems.
Moreinformationaboutthisseriesathttp://www.springer.com/series/7188
Aki-Hiro Sato
Editor
Applications of Data-Centric
Science to Social Design
Qualitative and Quantitative Understanding
of Collective Human Behavior
123
Editor
Aki-HiroSato
YokohamaCityUniversity
Kanazawa-ku,Yokohama-shi,
Kanagawa,Japan
JapanScienceandTechnologyAgencyPRESTO
Kawaguchi-shi,Saitama,Japan
StatisticalResearchandTrainingInstitute,
MinistryofInternalAffairsandCommunications
Shinjuku-ku,Tokyo,Japan
ISSN1861-0803
Agent-BasedSocialSystems
ISBN978-981-10-7193-5 ISBN978-981-10-7194-2 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-7194-2
©SpringerNatureSingaporePteLtd.2019
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Singapore
Preface
This book aims to understand human behavior and to address methods for social
designfrombothqualitativeandquantitativeperspectivesbasedonthemethodology
of data-centric science. Recently, a large amount of data formatted by various
expressionsareaccumulatedindifferentfieldsofsocioeconomicsystems.However,
at this moment, it seems that the utilization of such data has not been matured,
yet.Since data arenot answers butquestions inspiringpeople who areworking in
the fields, many efforts of data analysis are required to obtain insights from data.
Furthermore,theoutcomesofdataanalysisshouldsupporthumandecision-making
fromqualitativeandquantitativepointsofview.
The design process is a sequence of actions with the decision-making. There
mustbealotofusefulpointsofdata-centricsciencetodesign.Primarily,thisbook
hasbeeneditedbymotivatingtocollectmethodologiesandpracticalexamplesfor
contributing to data-driven social design. The intentions behind this book are to
develop the methodology to support people who are joining or attempt to join all
theactivitiesrelatedto“socialdesign”basedondata.
Thisbookcontainsthreemainparts,suchas:
PartI:Methodsfordataanalysisanddesign
PartII:Amathematicalfoundationofcollectivehumanbehavior
PartIII:Applicationsofdataanalysistosocialdesign
Part I mentions a conceptual framework of applications of data-centric science
tosocialdesignandincludesfourchapters.Readersmayfindmethodologicalideas
andframeworksthatcanbeusedwhentheyconsiderdesignforsocialsystemsfrom
thechaptersinPartI.
Thechaptertitled“HowtoDesignSocietyfromaData-CentricPointofView”
by Aki-Hiro Sato explains the intentions behind this book including the three
types of aspects: human behavior, data-centric science, and social design. The
chapter titled “Practical Methods for Data Analysis” by Aki-Hiro Sato explains
practical methods used in data utilization. The data analysis is an essential part to
understand the phenomena observed in the actual environment. The data analysis
formsaworkflowconsistingofdataacquisition,datacollection,datavisualization,
v
vi Preface
and quantification and data interpretation. The purpose of data analysis is to find
insightsonphenomenathatwehaveattendedtoandmakedecision-makerschange
their behavior. The chapter titled “An Approach to Product Design Involving
HeterogeneousStakeholders”byAki-HiroSatodiscusseshowtodesignourproduct
regarding data and communications among multi-stakeholders. Several methods
to design our product as group work are addressed. Specifically, eight techniques
that can be used in the group work are introduced step by step. The chapter titled
“Designing Human-Machine Systems Focusing on Benefits of Inconvenience” by
HiroshiKawakamiproposesbenefitsofinconvenienceinhuman-machinesystems
topreventlossofhumanabilityandjoyintooconvenienthuman-machinesystems.
Part II introduces collective human behavior and information cascade in social
groups from a mathematical physics point of view. Collective human behavior is
oftenseeninsocioeconomicsystemsandshouldbeunderstoodwhenreaderswant
todealwithsocioeconomicsystemsinvolvingheterogeneousstakeholders.Readers
can understand collective human behavior with information interactions from the
chaptersinthispart.
The chapter titled “Information Cascade and Phase Transition” by Masato
Hisakado and Shintaro Mori discusses a voting model with two candidates and
concludes that the model features a phase transition beyond which a state where
most voters make the correct choice coexists with one where most of them are
wrongasthefractionofherdersincreases;thechaptertitled“InformationCascade,
Kirman’s Ant Colony Model, and Kinetic Ising Model” by Masato Hisakado and
Shintaro Mori discusses a voting model in which voters can obtain information
from a finite number of previous voters. In this case, the phase transition can be
observed in infinite-size limit, but no phase transition happens when the reference
numberisfinite.Thechaptertitled“InformationCascadeandNetworks”byMasato
Hisakado and Shintaro Mori discusses a voting model on networks and concludes
thattheinfluenceofnetworkscanbeseenintheconvergencespeedonlyandcannot
be seen in the information cascade transition. The chapter titled “The Pitman-Yor
Process and Choice Behavior” by Masato Hisakado and Shintaro Mori discusses
choicebehaviorusingavotingmodelinwhichvoterscanobtaininformationfrom
a finite number of some previous voters and concludes that the posting process is
describedbytheproposedmodelforanalogherdersforasmallreferencenumber.
The chapter titled “Domino Effect in Information Cascade” by Shintaro Mori
and Masato Hisakado studies several simple models for information cascade and
proposes that the memory length in the sequential decisions and the number of
stablestates(equilibrium)playthekeyroleinthedominoeffectintheinformation
cascade.Thechaptertitled“InformationCascadeExperiment:GeneralKnowledge
Quiz” by Shintaro Mori and Masato Hisakado and the chapter titled “Information
CascadeExperiment:UrnQuiz”byShintaroMoriandMasatoHisakadodealwith
information cascade experiments. The difficulty of the questions depends on the
sequential collective behavior. The chapter titled “Information Cascade and Bayes
Formula” by Masato Hisakado and Shintaro Mori considers a voting experiment
using two-choice questions and attempts to establish the Bayes formula to correct
thewrongdecisions.
Preface vii
Part III provides readers with several case studies of social systems based on a
data-driven approach. The final four chapters provide useful insights and domain
knowledgeineachcasestudy.Readersmayobtaininsightsanddomainknowledge
to deepen understandings of socioeconomic systems from data analysis. These
chapters may be useful when they obtain domain knowledge, practical examples,
need specification, and design of socioeconomic systems. All chapters are useful
whenreadersattempttosolvesocialissuesanddealwithsocialdesignbyusingthe
methodologyofdata-centricscience.
Thechaptertitled“HowBettersVoteinHorseRaceBettingMarket”byShintaro
Mori and Masato Hisakado analyzes JRA (Japan Racing Association) win betting
data and how the efficiency and the accuracy improve as betting proceeds. The
chapter titled “Smart Micro-sensing: Reaching Sustainability in Agriculture via
DistributedSensorsintheFoodChain”byRobDolciandLauraBoschisproposes
a method to detect contaminants during the whole food supply chain by using
portablebiosensordevices.Theproposedmethodcanimprovefoodsafetyinboth
agricultureandfoodindustries.Thechaptertitled“High-FrequencyDataAnalysis
ofForeignExchangeMarkets”byAki-HiroSatoproposesamethodtocharacterize
collectivehumanbehaviorbasedonamultivariatePoissonmodelandshowsresults
obtained from empirical analysis with high-frequency foreign exchange data. The
common mode may measure collective human behavior from observable activity
data.Thechaptertitled“OnMeasuringExtremeSynchronywithNetworkEntropy
ofBipartiteGraphs”byAki-HiroSatoproposesamethodtoquantifythestructure
of a bipartite graph using a network entropy per link. The network entropy on a
bipartite network per link was used to quantify the degree of collective behavior
in the foreign exchange market. The proposed method is applicable to detecting
extremesynchronyinvarioustypesofsocioeconomicsystems.
This book will be devoted to promoting data-driven social design with multi-
stakeholdersthroughdesignactivitiesconsistingofdataacquisition,datacollection,
data analysis, data interpretation, reporting, and decision-making by accumulating
data,methods,andconnectionswithstakeholders.
Yokohama,Japan Aki-HiroSato
Contents
PartI MethodsforDataAnalysisandDesign
HowtoDesignSocietyfromaData-CentricPointofView.................. 3
Aki-HiroSato
PracticalMethodsforDataAnalysis........................................... 17
Aki-HiroSato
AnApproachtoProductDesignInvolvingHeterogeneous
Stakeholders...................................................................... 33
Aki-HiroSato
Designing Human-Machine Systems Focusing on Benefits
ofInconvenience.................................................................. 51
HiroshiKawakami
PartII MathematicalFoundationofHumanCollectiveBehavior
InformationCascadeandPhaseTransition................................... 65
MasatoHisakadoandShintaroMori
InformationCascade,Kirman’sAntColonyModel,andKinetic
IsingModel ....................................................................... 81
MasatoHisakadoandShintaroMori
InformationCascadeandNetworks ........................................... 99
MasatoHisakadoandShintaroMori
ThePitman-YorProcessandChoiceBehavior ............................... 119
MasatoHisakadoandShintaroMori
DominoEffectinInformationCascade........................................ 141
ShintaroMoriandMasatoHisakado
InformationCascadeExperiment:GeneralKnowledgeQuiz .............. 167
ShintaroMoriandMasatoHisakado
ix
x Contents
InformationCascadeExperiment:UrnQuiz................................. 181
ShintaroMoriandMasatoHisakado
InformationCascadeandBayesFormula..................................... 193
MasatoHisakadoandShintaroMori
PartIII ApplicationsofDataAnalysistoSocialDesign
HowBettersVoteinHorseRaceBettingMarket............................. 205
ShintaroMoriandMasatoHisakado
Smart Micro-sensing: Reaching Sustainability in Agriculture
viaDistributedSensorsintheFoodChain.................................... 217
R.DolciandL.Boschis
High-FrequencyDataAnalysisofForeignExchangeMarkets ............. 225
Aki-HiroSato
On Measuring Extreme Synchrony with Network Entropy
ofBipartiteGraphs .............................................................. 247
Aki-HiroSato
