Anticipating 2014 Voter Drop-Off: Charts and Full Results

83 Pages·2013·1.25 MB·English

by  Voter Participation Center

An#cipa#ng
 2014
 Voter

Drop-­‐Off

Celinda
 Lake,
 Joshua
 Ulibarri,
 and
 Cornelia
 Treptow

Lake
 Research
 Partners

1726
 M
 Street
 NW,
 Suite
 1100

Washington,
 DC
 20036

202-­‐776-­‐9066
Sources
 and
 Methodology

•  2012
 Data
 -­‐
 The
 November
 2012
 elecLon
 data
 comes
 from
 the
 U.S.
 Census

Bureau’s
 2012
 November
 Supplement.

•  2014
 PopulaLon
 EsLmates
 -­‐
 CPS
 counts
 of
 the
 VEP
 were
 pulled
 for
 each
 month

going
 back
 to
 August
 2010.
 Data
 was
 divided
 by
 state,
 and
 then
 into
 demographic

subgroups
 of
 LaLno,
 non-­‐LaLno
 RAE,
 and
 non-­‐RAE,
 as
 those
 populaLons
 are

growing
 at
 different
 rates.
 A
 rolling
 average
 was
 calculated,
 such
 that
 each

month’s
 data
 was
 represented
 by
 an
 average
 of
 that
 month
 and
 the
 11
 preceding

months;
 this
 was
 done
 to
 smooth
 out
 random
 fluctuates
 in
 the
 data
 that
 were
 the

result
 of
 sampling
 error.
 From
 these
 rolling
 averages,
 the
 monthly
 increase
 in

populaLon
 was
 esLmated
 and
 mulLplied
 by
 24
 to
 give
 an
 esLmate
 of
 the
 increase

in
 populaLon
 between
 November
 2012
 and
 November
 2014.
 Data
 was
 then

summed
 by
 state
 and
 by
 demographic
 subgroup
 to
 produce
 total
 naLonal

esLmates.

•  Drop-­‐Off
 -­‐
 refers
 to
 the
 loss
 of
 voters
 from
 2012
 to
 2014.
 The
 average
 of

 turnout

in
 2002,
 2006,
 and
 2010
 was
 applied
 to
 2014
 populaLon
 esLmates
 to
 calculate

2014
 turnout.

 Percentage
 drop-­‐off
 is
 the
 difference
 between
 2012
 and
 2014

turnout
 as
 a
 percentage
 of
 2012
 turnout.
 Number
 drop-­‐off
 is
 that
 percentage
 of

2

the
 2012
 electorate.
The
 Voter
 Par#cipa#on
 Center

•  The
 Voter
 ParLcipaLon
 Center
 (VPC)
 is
 a
 501(c)3

nonprofit,
 nonparLsan
 organizaLon
 and
 does

not
 endorse
 candidates.

•  VPC
 is
 dedicated
 to
 increasing
 the
 share
 of

unmarried
 women
 and
 other
 historically

under-­‐represented
 groups
 in
 the
 electorate.

3
The
 Rising
 American
 Electorate

•  The
 Rising
 American
 Electorate
 (RAE)
 –

Unmarried
 Women,
 Youths
 (ages
 18-­‐29),
 African

Americans,
 LaLnos,
 and
 all
 other
 non-­‐white

races
 –
 now
 accounts
 for
 more
 than
 half
 of
 the

voLng
 eligible
 populaLon
 in
 this
 country
 (53.5%).

•  While
 RAE
 turnout
 has
 increased
 in
 recent

elecLons,
 they
 sLll
 do
 not
 vote
 in
 proporLon
 to

their
 share
 of
 the
 populaLon.

4
Demographic
 Composi#on
 of
 the
 RAE

Vote
 Eligible
 Popula#on
  Unmarried
 Women
  18-­‐29
 Year
 Olds

21.2%

25.6%

Non-­‐RAE

RAE

46.5%

53.5%

African
 Americans
  La#nos
  Other
 Race

6.8%

12.5%
  10.8%

5

Source:
 CPS
 November
 2012
 Supplement
Demographic
 Composi#on
 of
 the
 RAE

Unmarried

women
 –

  African

African

55.2
 million
  Americans
 –

American

26.9
 million

Other
 Race
 –

  unmarried

Other
 race

14.7
 million
  women
 –

unmarried

10.5
 million

women
 –

3.8
 million

115
 million
 eligible
 voters
  Unmarried

LaLnas
 –

(53.5%
 of
 all
 eligible

Unmarried
 women

6.8
 million

voters)
 are
 in
 the
 Rising

under
 30
 –
 17.9
 million

American
 Electorate

LaLnos
 –
  Under
 30
 –

23.3
 million
  45.6
 million

6

Source:
 Census
 Bureau,

 CPS
 November
 2012
 supplement
How
 the
 RAE
 voted
 in
 2012

Rising
 American
 Electorate
  Non-­‐Rising
 American
 Electorate

67

63

+35

+28

35

32

Obama
  Romney
  Obama
  Romney

7

Source:
 Greenberg
 Quinlan
 Rosner
 for
 Democracy
 Partners.
 1001
 likely
 2012
 voters
 naLonwide.
 Nov
 5-­‐7,
 2012.
 M.O.E.
 +/-­‐
 3.1
 percent.
Past
 research
 shows
 that
 there
 is
 more
 opportunity
 in
 registering
 new
 voters
 and
 turning

them
 out,
 as
 opposed
 to
 turning
 out
 already
 registered
 voters
 who
 did
 not
 vote
 in

PresidenLal
 elecLons.
 Large
 porLons
 of
 the
 RAE
 are
 unregistered
 to
 vote.
 RegistraLon
 efforts

should
 be
 made
 as
 it
 will
 boost
 their
 turnout,
 which
 can
 have
 real
 impacts
 on
 elecLon
 results.

November
 2012
 Vo#ng
 and
 Registra#on

39,456,000
 members
 of
 the

17,318,000
  RAE
 (34.3%)
 were
 not

registered
 to
 vote

19,226,000

5,980,000

7,235,000
  5,838,000

9,632,000
  1,867,000

31,854,000

2,509,000

20,539,000

17,813,000

11,188,000

Unmarried
 women
  LaLnos
  African
 Americans
  18-­‐29
 year
 olds

Voted
  Registered
 but
 did
 not
 vote
  Did
 not
 register

8

Source:
 Census
 Bureau,
 CPS
 November
 2012
 supplement
How
 To
 Read
 Data
 Slides

•  Voters
 lost
 from
 2012,
 expressed
 as
 a
  RAE
 populaLon:
 percentage
 of
 RAE
 voters
 in
 the

populaLon’s
 vote
 eligible
 populaLon
 in
 2012.

percentage.

–  That
 percentage
 expressed
 as
 the
  Voter
 DistribuLon
 of
 the
 Electorate:
 pie
 charts

number
 of
 esLmated
 votes
 lost
 from
  show
 the
 share
 of
 ballots
 cast
 between
 RAE

and
 non-­‐RAE
 voters
 in
 2012
 and
 2014.

2012.

2012

Voter
 Turnout:
 the
 number
 of
 voters
 who
 cast
 a
 ballot

80,000,000

RAE

Non-­‐RAE

70,000,000
  47.5%

52.5%

Expected
 vote
 loss

60,000,000

from
 2012-­‐2014

50,000,000

40,000,000

2014

30,000,000

20,000,000

10,000,000
  RAE

Non-­‐RAE

42.6%

0

57.4%

RAE
  Non-­‐RAE

2012
  2014
  This
 chart
 shows
 the
 number
 of
 votes
 cast
 in

2012
 next
 to
 the
 expected
 number
 of
 votes
 in

2014
 among
 RAE
 and
 non-­‐RAE
 voters.

9

Source:
 CPS
 November
 2012
 Supplement
Na#onal
 Drop-­‐Off

•  RAE
 Voter
 drop-­‐off:
 34.5%
  RAE
 populaLon:
 53.5%

–  Est.
 21.8
 million
 votes

Voter
 Distribu#on
 of
 the
 Electorate

•  Non-­‐RAE
 Voter
 drop-­‐off:
 17.5%

–  Est.
 12.2
 million
 votes

2012

Voter
 Turnout

Non-­‐RAE
  RAE

80,000,000
  -­‐12.2
 M
  52.5%
  47.5%

-­‐21.8
 M

70,000,000

60,000,000

50,000,000

2014

40,000,000

30,000,000

20,000,000

Non-­‐RAE

  RAE

10,000,000

57.4%
  42.6%

0

RAE
  Non-­‐RAE

2012
  2014

10

Source:
 CPS
 November
 2012
 Supplement