Anthology of statistics in sports

333 Pages·2005·46.81 MB·English

by  Jay Bennett

Anthology of
Statistics in Sports
ASA-SIAM Series on
Statistics and Applied Probability
ASA
SIAM
The ASA-SIAM Series on Statistics and Applied Probability is published
jointly by the American Statistical Association and the Society for Industrial and Applied
Mathematics. The series consists of a broad spectrum of books on topics in statistics and
applied probability. The purpose of the series is to provide inexpensive, quality publications
of interest to the intersecting membership of the two societies.
Editorial Board
Martin T. Wells Joseph Gardiner
Cornell University, Editor-in-Chief Michigan State University
David Banks Susan Holmes
Duke University Stanford University
H. T. Banks Lisa LaVange
North Carolina State University Inspire Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Richard K. Burdick Francoise Seillier-Moiseiwitsch
Arizona State University University of Maryland - Baltimore County
Douglas M. Hawkins Mark van der Laan
University of Minnesota University of California, Berkeley
Albert, J., Bennett, J., and Cochran, J. J., eds., Anthology of Statistics in Sports
Smith, W. F, Experimental Design for Formulation
Baglivo, J. A., Mathematica Laboratories for Mathematical Statistics: Emphasizing Simulation
and Computer Intensive Methods
Lee, H. K. H., Bayesian Nonparametrics via Neural Networks
O'Gorman, T. W., Applied Adaptive Statistical Methods: Tests of Significance and
Confidence Intervals
Ross, T. J., Booker, J. M., and Parkinson, W. J., eds., Fuzzy Logic and Probability Applications:
Bridging the Gap
Nelson, W. B., Recurrent Events Data Analysis for Product Repairs, Disease Recurrences, and
Other Applications
Mason, R. L. and Young, J. C, Multivariate Statistical Process Control with Industrial
Applications
Smith, P. L., A Primer for Sampling Solids, Liquids, and Gases: Based on the Seven Sampling
Errors of Pierre Gy
Meyer, M. A. and Booker, J. M., Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment: A Practical Guide
Latouche, G. and Ramaswami, V., Introduction to Matrix Analytic Methods in Stochastic
Modeling
Peck, R., Haugh, L., and Goodman, A., Statistical Case Studies: A Collaboration Between
Academe and Industry, Student Edition
Peck, R., Haugh, L., and Goodman, A., Statistical Case Studies: A Collaboration Between
Academe and Industry
Barlow, R., Engineering Reliability
Czitrom, V. and Spagon, P. D., Statistical Case Studies for Industrial Process Improvement
Anthology of
Statistics in Sports
Edited by
Jim Albert
Bowling Green State University
Bowling Green, Ohio
Jay Bennett
Telcordia Technologies
Piscataway, New Jersey
James J. Cochran
Louisiana Tech University
Ruston, Louisiana
siajiL
Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics American Statistical Association
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Alexandria, Virginia
The correct bibliographic citation for this book is as follows: Albert, Jim, Jay Bennett, and
James J. Cochran, eds., Anthology of Statistics in Sports, ASA-SIAM Series on Statistics and
Applied Probability, SIAM, Philadelphia, ASA, Alexandria, VA, 2005.
Copyright © 2005 by the American Statistical Association and the Society for Industrial and
Applied Mathematics.
10987654321
All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this book may be
reproduced, stored, or transmitted in any manner without the written permission of the
publisher. For information, write to the Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics,
3600 University City Science Center, Philadelphia, PA 19104-2688.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Anthology of statistics in sports / [compiled by] Jim Albert, Jay Bennett, James J. Cochran.
p. cm. - (ASA-SIAM series on statistics and applied probability)
On cover: The ASA Section on Statistics in Sports.
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 0-89871-587-3 (pbk.)
1. Sports-United States-Statistics. 2. Sports-United States-Statistical methods. I.
Albert, Jim, 1953- II. Bennett, Jay. III. Cochran, James J. IV. American Statistical
Association. Section on Statistics in Sports. V. Series.
GV741.A6942005
796'.021-dc22 2005042540
siajTL
is a registered trademark.
Contents
Acknowledgments ix
1 Introduction 1
Jim Albert, Jay Bennett, and James J. Cochran
2 The Use of Sports in Teaching Statistics 5
Jim Albert and James J. Cochran
PART I STATISTICS IN FOOTBALL 11
3 Introduction to the Football Articles 13
Hal Stern
4 A Geometry Model for NFL Field Goal Kickers 17
Scott M. Berry
5 A State-Space Model for National Football League Scores 23
Mark E. Glickman and Hal S. Stern
6 Predictions for National Football League Games via Linear-Model Methodology 35
David Harville
7 The Best NFL Field Goal Kickers: Are They Lucky or Good? 45
Donald G. Morrison and Manohar U. Kalwani
8 On the Probability of Winning a Football Game 53
Hal Stern
PART II STATISTICS IN BASEBALL 59
9 Introduction to the Baseball Articles 61
Jim Albert and James J. Cochran
10 Exploring Baseball Hitting Data: What About Those Breakdown Statistics? 67
Jim Albert
11 Did Shoeless Joe Jackson Throw the 1919 World Series? 77
Jay Bennett
12 Player Game Percentage 87
Jay M. Bennett and John A. Flueck
V
Contents
13 Estimation with Selected Binomial Information or Do You Really Believe That
Dave Winfield Is Batting .471? 91
George Casella and Roger L. Berger
14 Baseball: Pitching No-Hitters 103
Cliff Frvhlich
15 Answering Questions About Baseball Using Statistics 111
Bill James, Jim Albert, and Hal S. Stern
16 The Progress of the Score During a Baseball Game 119
G. R. Lindsey
PART III STATISTICS IN BASKETBALL 145
17 Introduction to the Basketball Articles 147
Robert L. Wardrop
18 Improved NCAA Basketball Tournament Modeling via Point Spread and
Team Strength Information 149
Bradley P. Carlin
19 It's Okay to Believe in the "Hot Hand" 155
Patrick D. Larkey, Richard A. Smith, and Joseph B. Kadane
20 More Probability Models for the NCAA Regional Basketball Tournaments 163
Neil C. Schwertman, Kathryn L. Schenk, and Brett C. Holbrook
21 The Cold Facts About the "Hot Hand" in Basketball 169
Amos Tversky and Thomas Gilovich
22 Simpson's Paradox and the Hot Hand in Basketball 175
Robert L. Wardrop
PART IV STATISTICS IN ICE HOCKEY 181
23 Introduction to the Ice Hockey Articles 183
Robin H. Lock
24 Statistical Methods for Rating College Hockey Teams 187
Timothy J. Danehy and Robin H. Lock
25 Overtime or Shootout: Deciding Ties in Hockey 193
William Hurley
26 It Takes a Hot Goalie to Raise the Stanley Cup 197
Donald G. Morrison and David C. Schmittlein
PART V STATISTICAL METHODOLOGIES AND MULTIPLE SPORTS 203
27 Introduction to the Methodologies and Multiple Sports Articles 205
Scott Berry
28 Bridging Different Eras in Sports 209
Scott M. Berry, C. Shane Reese, and Patrick D. Larkey
VI
Contents
29 Data Analysis Using Stein's Estimator and Its Generalizations 225
Bradley Efron and Carl Morris
30 Assigning Probabilities to the Outcomes of Multi-Entry Competitions 235
David A. Harville
31 Basketball, Baseball, and the Null Hypothesis 241
Robert Hooke
32 Lessons from Sports Statistics 245
Frederick Mosteller
33 Can TQM Improve Athletic Performance? 251
Harry V. Roberts
34 A Brownian Motion Model for the Progress of Sports Scores 257
Hal S. Stern
PART VI STATISTICS IN MISCELLANEOUS SPORTS 265
35 Introduction to the Miscellaneous Sports Articles 267
Donald Guthrie
36 Shooting Darts 271
Hal Stern and Wade Wilcox
37 Drive for Show and Putt for Dough 275
Scott M. Berry
38 Adjusting Golf Handicaps for the Difficulty of the Course 281
Francis Scheid and Lyle Calvin
39 Rating Skating 287
Gilbert W. Bassett, Jr. and Joseph Per sky
40 Modeling Scores in the Premier League: Is Manchester United Really the Best? 293
A Ian J. Lee
41 Down to Ten: Estimating the Effect of a Red Card in Soccer 299
G. Ridder, J. S. Cramer, and P. Hopstaken
42 Heavy Defeats in Tennis: Psychological Momentum or Random Effect? 303
David Jackson and Krzysztof Mosurski
43 Who Is the Fastest Man in the World? 311
Robert Tibshirani
44 Resizing Triathlons for Fairness 317
Howard Wainer and Richard D. De Veaux
VII
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Acknowledgments
Original Sources of Contributed Articles
Chapter 4 originally appeared in Chance, vol. 12, no. 3, 1999, pp. 51-56.
Chapter 5 originally appeared in Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 93, no. 441, 1998,
pp. 25-35.
Chapter 6 originally appeared in Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 75, no. 371, 1980,
pp. 516-524.
Chapter 7 originally appeared in Chance, vol. 6, no. 3, 1993, pp. 30-37.
Chapter 8 originally appeared in The American Statistician, vol. 45, no. 3, 1991, pp. 179-183.
Chapter 10 originally appeared in Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 89, no. 427, 1994,
pp. 1066-1074.
Chapter 11 originally appeared in The American Statistician, vol. 47, no. 4, 1993, pp. 241-250.
Chapter 12 originally appeared in American Statistical Association Proceedings of the Section on Statistics
in Sports, 1992, pp. 64-66.
Chapter 13 originally appeared in Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 89, no. 427, 1994,
pp. 1080-1090.
Chapter 14 originally appeared in Chance, vol. 7, no. 3, 1994, pp. 24-30.
Chapter 15 originally appeared in Chance, vol. 6, no. 2, 1993, pp. 17-22, 30.
Chapter 16 originally appeared in American Statistical Association Journal, September 1961, pp. 703-728.
Chapter 18 originally appeared in The American Statistician, vol. 50, no. 1, 1996, pp. 39-43.
Chapter 19 originally appeared in Chance, vol. 2, no. 4, 1989, pp. 22-30.
Chapter 20 originally appeared in The American Statistician, vol. 50, no. 1, 1996, pp. 34-38.
Chapter 21 originally appeared in Chance, vol. 2, no. 1, 1989, pp. 16-21.
Chapter 22 originally appeared in The American Statistician, vol. 49, no. 1, 1995, pp. 24-28.
Chapter 24 originally appeared in American Statistical Association Proceedings of the Section on Statistics
in Sports, 1993, pp. 4-9.
Chapter 25 originally appeared in Chance, vol. 8, no. 1, 1995, pp. 19-22.
Chapter 26 originally appeared in Chance, vol. 11, no. 1, 1998, pp. 3-7.
Chapter 28 originally appeared in Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 94, no. 447, 1999,
pp. 661-676.
Chapter 29 originally appeared in Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 70, no. 350, 1975,
pp. 311-319.
Chapter 30 originally appeared in Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 68, no. 342, 1973,
pp. 312-316.
Chapter 31 originally appeared in Chance, vol. 2, no. 4, 1989, pp. 35-37.
Chapter 32 originally appeared in The American Statistician, vol. 51, no. 4, 1997, pp. 305-310.
Chapter 33 originally appeared in Chance, vol. 6, no. 3, 1993, pp. 25-29, 69.
Chapter 34 originally appeared in Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 89, no. 427, 1994,
pp. 1128-1134.
Chapter 36 originally appeared in Chance, vol. 10, no. 3, 1997, pp. 16-19.
Chapter 37 originally appeared in Chance, vol. 12, no. 4, 1999, pp. 50-55.
Chapter 38 originally appeared in American Statistical Association Proceedings of the Section on Statistics
in Sports, 1995, pp. 1-5.
IX