ANP Disruption Simulation for Supply Chains due to Macro Risks

21 Pages·2012·0.81 MB·English

by  Sascha Bioly

ANP Disruption Simulation for
Supply Chains due to Macro Risks
Hella Abidi*
Matthias Klumpp

POMS 23rd Annual Conference
Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.

April 20 to April 23, 2012
Agenda
1. Research interest
2. Macro risks
3. Impact of macro risks on a supply chain
4. Analytical network process
5. Results and managerial insight
6. Conclusion
FOM ild Abidi/Klumpp - ANP Disruption Simulation for Supply Chains due to Macro 2
Risks
1. Research interest
 improving quality, reduction manufacturing time and costs,
rapid technology development, contracting out, global markets,
product dynamic, service complexity, reduction supplier and
inventory practices
complex and interlinked business environment =
global supply chain

 afflicted with risks (micro and macro risks)
 linguistic, cultural deficits, customs regulations, transportation
delays, logistics service differences and natural, man-made as
well as technological disasters
supply chain disruption
FOM ild Abidi/Klumpp - ANP Disruption Simulation for Supply Chains due to Macro 3
Risks
1. Research interest
Research questions:
 Strategic level: If the available supply chain is aligned to the
risk management objectives?
 Tactical level: Are all potential risks due to macro risk events
well known and does the supply chain management dispose of
contingency plans and are they prepared when these disasters
occurred?
 Operational level: If the time is known when the prepared
contingency plan can be deployed and if the users are able to
learn from the experience and to improve their reflexes for
future events?

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Risks
2. Macro risks
Suply chain risks and business
threat due to:
 Micro risks
 Crimes
 Customs
 Business differences
 ICT (e.g. system failure)
 Macro risks
 Natural disasters
 Man-made disasters
 Technological disasters

FOM ild Abidi/Klumpp - ANP Disruption Simulation for Supply Chains due to Macro 5
Risks
2. Macro risks
FOM ild Abidi/Klumpp - ANP Disruption Simulation for Supply Chains due to Macro 6
Risks
2. Macro risks
FOM ild Abidi/Klumpp - ANP Disruption Simulation for Supply Chains due to Macro 7
Risks
3. Impact of macro risks on a
supply chain

Sub-supplier Sub-supplier Sub-supplier Sub-supplier Sub-supplier Sub-supplier

Supplier I Supplier II Supplier III

Energy Manufacturer

Consumer I Consumer II Consumer III
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Risks
3. Impact of macro risks on a
supply chain

1. Macro disaster
6. Mitigation of 2. Risk
supply chain risks identification
5. Implementation
3. Risk
of supply chain risk
assessement and
management
evaluation
strategy
4. Selection of
appropriate risk
management
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Risks
4. Analytical Network Process
(ANP)
 Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) method for
complicated and unstructured problems
 Extension of analytical hierarchy process
 Solves multiple qualitative and quantitative criteria problems in
a network process
C
4
 Allows groups or

individuals to deal with
C
the interconnections
1
(dependence and
C
feedback) between
2

Feedback
factors of complex
C
Arc from component
3
structure in decision C4 to C2 indicates the
outer dependence of the

making process elements in C2 on the
elements in C4 with
respect
to a common property.
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Risks