Annual exceedance probabilities and trends for peak streamflows and annual runoff volumes for ...

98 Pages·2014·22.91 MB·English

Prepared in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Annual Exceedance Probabilities and Trends for Peak
Streamflows and Annual Runoff Volumes for the Central
United States During the 2011 Floods
Chapter D of
2011 Floods of the Central United States
Professional Paper 1798–D
U.S. Department of the Interior
U.S. Geological Survey
Front cover. Top photograph: View of flooding from Nebraska City, Nebraska, looking east across the Missouri River,
August 2, 2011. Photograph by Robert Swanson, USGS.
Right photograph: Flooding along the Missouri River at Blair, Nebraska, June 28, 2011. Photograph by Kevin Richards, USGS.
Back cover. Looking upstream to spillway at Garrison Dam, June 11, 2011. Photograph by Nathan A. Stroh, USGS.
Annual Exceedance Probabilities and
Trends for Peak Streamflows and Annual
Runoff Volumes for the Central United
States During the 2011 Floods
By Daniel G. Driscoll, Rodney E. Southard, Todd A. Koenig, David A. Bender, and
Robert R. Holmes, Jr.
Prepared in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Professional Paper 1798–D
U.S. Department of the Interior
U.S. Geological Survey
U.S. Department of the Interior
SALLY JEWELL, Secretary
U.S. Geological Survey
Suzette M. Kimball, Acting Director
U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2014
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Suggested citation:
Driscoll, D.G., Southard, R.E., Koenig, T.A., Bender, D.A., and Holmes, R. R. Jr., 2014, Annual exceedance probabilities
and trends for peak streamflows and annual runoff volumes for the Central United States during the 2011 floods, U.S.
Geological Survey Professional Paper 1798–D, 89 p., http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/pp1798D.

ISSN 2330-7102 (online)
iii
Contents
Abstract ...........................................................................................................................................................1
Introduction.....................................................................................................................................................2
Purpose and Scope .......................................................................................................................................2
Overview of 2011 Precipitation and Flooding ............................................................................................2
Annual Exceedance Probabilities for Peak Streamflows and Annual Runoff Volumes .....................4
Methods for Probability Analyses ......................................................................................................5
Results of Probability Analyses ..........................................................................................................8
Trends in Peak Streamflows and Annual Runoff Volumes ....................................................................13
Methods for Trend Analyses .............................................................................................................13
Results of Trend Analyses .................................................................................................................15
Additional Perspectives Regarding Hydrologic Trends in the Central United States ......................17
Summary........................................................................................................................................................28
References Cited..........................................................................................................................................28
Figures
1. Map showing major river basins of the Central United States along with other
locations affected by flooding streams from February to September, 2011 .......................3
2. Map showing locations of selected streamgages in the Central United States
where flooding took place during February to September, 2011 ..........................................6
3. Map showing annual exceedance probabilities for 2011 peak streamflows for
selected streamgages in the Central United States affected by 2011 flooding .................9
4. Map showing annual exceedance probabilities for 2011 annual runoff volumes for
selected streamgages in the Central United States affected by 2011 flooding ...............10
5. Map showing percentage changes in median annual peak streamflow values
(1958 to 2011) for selected streamgages in the Central United States affected by
2011 flooding ................................................................................................................................16
6. Map showing percentage changes in median annual peak streamflow values
(1958 to 2007) for selected streamgages in the Central United States previously
reported by Holmes and others (2010) ....................................................................................18
7. Map showing percentage changes in median annual runoff volumes (1958 to 2011)
for selected streamgages in the Central United States affected by 2011 flooding .........19
8. Graph showing time-series (1929 to 2011) record of annual peak streamflow for
the James River near Scotland, South Dakota ......................................................................20
9. Graph showing time-series (1929 to 2011) record of annual runoff volume for the
James River near Scotland, South Dakota .............................................................................21
10. Graph showing lake-level record for Waubay Lake within the Waubay Lakes Chain
in northeastern South Dakota ...................................................................................................22
11. Graph showing lake-level record for Devils Lake in northeastern North Dakota ...........23
12. Graphs showing sum of normalized ranks for peak streamflows, by water year
(1958 to 2011) ...............................................................................................................................24
13. Graphs showing sum of normalized ranks for annual runoff volume, by water year
(1958 to 2011) ...............................................................................................................................26
iv
Tables
1. Peak streamflow data and results of flood-probability analyses for selected
streamgages in the Central United States affected by 2011 flooding ................................32
2. Annual runoff data and results of flood-probability analyses for selected streamgages
in the Central United States affected by 2011 flooding ........................................................66
3. Summary of results of probability analyses for selected streamgages in the Central
United States for annual peak streamflows (from table 1) and annual runoff volumes
(from table 2) ................................................................................................................................11
4. Results of trend analyses (1958 to 2011) for selected streamgages in the Central United
States affected by 2011 flooding ..............................................................................................15
Conversion Factors
Inch/Pound to SI
Multiply By To obtain
Length
inch (in.) 2.54 centimeter (cm)
inch (in.) 25.4 millimeter (mm)
foot (ft) 0.3048 meter (m)
mile (mi) 1.609 kilometer (km)
Area
acre 4,047 square meter (m2)
acre 0.4047 hectare (ha)
acre 0.4047 square hectometer (hm2)
acre 0.004047 square kilometer (km2)
square mile (mi2) 259.0 hectare (ha)
square mile (mi2) 2.590 square kilometer (km2)
Volume
acre-foot (acre-ft) 1,233 cubic meter (m3)
acre-foot (acre-ft) 0.001233 cubic hectometer (hm3)
Flow rate
cubic foot per second (ft3/s) 0.02832 cubic meter per second (m3/s)
Vertical coordinate information is referenced to the North American Vertical Datum of 1988
(NAVD 88).
Horizontal coordinate information is referenced to the North American Datum of 1983
(NAD 83).
Water year is the 12-month period from October 1 to September 30 and is designated by
the calendar year in which it ends. For example, water year 2011 is from October 1, 2010 to
September 30, 2011.
Annual Exceedance Probabilities and Trends for Peak
Streamflows and Annual Runoff Volumes for the Central
United States During the 2011 Floods
By Daniel G. Driscoll, Rodney E. Southard, Todd A. Koenig, David A. Bender, and Robert R. Holmes, Jr.
Abstract volumes were less than 1 percent for all seven Souris River
streamgages considered for AEP analysis. Magnitudes of 2011
runoff volumes exceeded previous maxima by double or more
During 2011, excess precipitation resulted in widespread
for 5 of the 7 streamgages (record lengths 52 to 108 years).
flooding in the Central United States with 33 fatalities and
For the Red River of the North Basin, AEPs for 2011 run-
approximately $4.2 billion in damages reported in the Red
off volumes were exceptional, with two streamgages having
River of the North, Souris, and Mississippi River Basins. At
AEPs less than 0.2 percent, five streamgages in the range of
different times from late February 2011 through September
0.2 to 1 percent, and four streamgages in the range of 1 to
2011, various rivers in these basins had major flooding, with
2 percent. Magnitudes of 2011 runoff volumes also were
some locations having multiple rounds of flooding. This report
exceptional, with all 11 of the aforementioned streamgages
provides broadscale characterizations of annual exceedance
eclipsing previous long-term (62 to 110 years) annual maxima
probabilities and trends for peak streamflows and annual
by about one-third or more.
runoff volumes for selected streamgages in the Central United
AEPs for peak streamflows in the upper Mississippi River
States in areas affected by 2011 flooding.
Basin were not exceptional, with no AEPs less than 1 percent.
Annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) were analyzed
AEPs for annual runoff volumes indicated less frequent
for 321 streamgages for annual peak streamflow and for
recurrence, with 11 streamgages having AEPs of less than
211 streamgages for annual runoff volume. Some of the most
1 percent. The 2011 runoff volume for streamgage 05331000
exceptional flooding was for the Souris River Basin, where of
(at Saint Paul, Minnesota) exceeded the previous record
11 streamgages considered for AEP analysis of peak stream-
(112 years of record) by about 24 percent.
flow, flood peaks in 2011 exceeded the next largest peak of
An especially newsworthy feature was prolonged flood-
record by at least double for 6 of the longest-term streamgages
ing along the main stem of the Missouri River downstream
(75 to 108 years of peak-flow record). AEPs for these six
from Garrison Dam (located upstream from Bismarck, North
streamgages were less than 1 percent. AEPs for 2011 runoff
Flood inundation along the Souris River in Minot, North Dakota,
June 27, 2011. Photograph by Brent Hanson, USGS.
2 Annual Exceedance Probabilities and Trends for the Central United States during the 2011 Floods
Dakota) and extending downstream throughout the length of amounts in excess of 20 inches in a 2-week period (700- to
the Missouri River. The 2011 runoff volume for streamgage 1,000-percent above normal) were observed (National Oceanic
06342500 (at Bismarck) exceeded the previous (1975) maxi- and Atmospheric Administration, 2012a) following snowpack
mum by about 50 percent, with an associated AEP in the range greater than 150 percent of normal in parts of the northern
of 0.2 to 1 percent. U.S. Rocky Mountains (National Oceanic and Atmospheric
In the Ohio River Basin, peak-streamflow AEPs were Administration, 2012b). During the 2011 flooding, the U. S.
less than 2 percent for only four streamgages. Runoff-volume Geological Survey (USGS) made more than 2,300 measure-
AEPs were less than 2 percent for only three streamgages. ments of streamflow at USGS streamgages and other strategic
Along the lower Mississippi River, the largest streamflow peak river locations to document peak streamflows, stages, and run-
in 91 years was recorded for streamgage 07289000 (at Vicks- off volumes at locations throughout the Central United States
burg, Mississippi), with an associated AEP of 0.8 percent. (Holmes and others, 2013).
Trends in peak streamflow were analyzed for
98 streamgages, with 67 streamgages having upward
trends, 31 with downward trends, and zero with no Purpose and Scope
trend. Trends in annual runoff volume were analyzed for
182 streamgages, with 145 streamgages having upward trends,
In 2011, the USGS operated a network of more than
36 with downward trends, and 1 with no trend. The trend anal-
7,800 streamgages throughout the United States, providing
yses used descriptive methods that did not include measures
data that are vital for human, economic, and environmental
of statistical significance. A dichotomous spatial distribution
welfare. As the principal federal agency charged with docu-
in trends was apparent for both peak streamflow and annual
menting water resources of the United States and assessing
runoff volume, with a small number of streamgages in the
natural hazards, it is important to document floods, particu-
northwestern part of the study area having downward trends
larly those of exceptional proportions. Streamflow data from
and most streamgages in the eastern part of the study area hav-
USGS (U. S. Geological Survey, 2013) and other agencies,
ing upward trends.
with some data existing back to the late 1800s, are important
to place context to magnitudes of the 2011 floods. This report
provides broadscale characterizations of annual exceedance
Introduction
probabilities and trends for peak streamflows and annual run-
off volumes (frequently referred to simply as runoff volume
Major flooding at various times during 2011 caused throughout this report) for selected streamgages in the Central
33 fatalities and approximately $4.2 billion in damages in United States in areas affected by 2011 flooding. Streamgages
areas spanning from the Canadian border to the Gulf of considered are the same as those considered by Holmes and
Mexico and the Rocky Mountains to the Allegheny Mountains others (2013), who documented peak streamflows, stages, and
(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2011). runoff volumes for the 2011 floods.
Affected river basins included parts of the Red River of the
North (frequently referred to simply as Red River throughout
this report), the Souris River, upper Mississippi River, Mis- Overview of 2011 Precipitation and
souri River, Ohio River, and middle and lower Mississippi
Flooding
River, in the Central United States (fig. 1) and the southern
Prairie Provinces of Canada. The flooding began in earnest
in February and March in the lower Missouri River, middle Vining and others (2013) documented the general weather
and lower Mississippi River, and Ohio River Basins. Snow- conditions and precipitation contributing to the 2011 flooding
melt flooding began during late March and early April in the in the Central United States. Severe flooding in the Missis-
Red River and upper Mississippi River Basins, followed by sippi River and Red River Basins during spring and summer
successive flooding in the lower Mississippi River, and Mis- 2011 resulted from weather conditions during December 2010
souri River Basins (second round) from mid-April through through July 2011 that were affected, in part, by a La Niña
August (Holmes and others, 2013). The Souris River, which climate pattern. This pattern is characterized by cooler than
is a major tributary to the Red River, experienced a second average sea surface temperatures in the central and east-central
round of flooding in June 2011. The 2011 floods in the Central equatorial Pacific Ocean and a strong high pressure area in the
United States were caused by one or more combinations of the northern Pacific Ocean. This pattern tends to produce cooler
following: saturated antecedent soil conditions, higher than and wetter than normal weather conditions over the western
average streamflow at the beginning of 2011, rapid melting and north-central regions of the Mississippi River and Red
of the larger than normal snowpack, excess precipitation on River Basins, and often warmer and drier than normal weather
snowpack, or simply excess precipitation (Holmes and others, conditions over the southern Mississippi River Basin.
2013). In some parts of the Central United States, precipitation
Overview of 2011 Precipitation and Flooding 3
5
0
°07 WENKROY AINAV MARYLAND NAINAECO H T CANIILTNALTA EXPLANATION Mississippi River Basin Ohio River subbasin Upper Mississippi River subbasin Lower Mississippi River subbasin Missouri River subbasin Red River of the North Basin Watershed boundaries from Watermolen, 20 mber, 2011 (modified from
°110°0281100°900°° CANADRed RiverASoLong Creeku of the risFort BentonVergelle NorthFort Peck DamLanduskyRiMinotverLresosviRiuSGreat FallsMryeeiAnhnUSKeP ErEeRMusselshellMusselshellRvIiFargoiRvGarrisonOR River RivereoRrTostonDamJckaoottssnneewwyoomllBismarcklleeYYesNO RTH DA KOTAM L LAKE MGallatin RiverASaint iW sKRMisOONTARIOiENPaulTiNAins NAv scMAsneiHoeprGsopnUBoitusIiaR gniHRntOi SOUTH SvDAKaOCTARNIeSNOiiCNiSIWrvoInDeIArGreat PlainsuHMsOxOahe DamRATOiS ENNIMN RAGvIHC IMei WvrY OMIEBig Bend DamMNeGiErKsIScotlandsRoAuEri yLEsFort Randall DamKnnAeSiouxiYanktonLahtgnCityGavinsNAWeOoIClintonurtlPoint Damohl A rMeRvPOilRIHaNEOBRtASKtAiLeYvSNNeEPrreviRsassnaKiSoRiUverTSaint JosephRAAcNnAHRuloIDNiICiOLiOoSvRIOANlDIALTOLItelIRoUOSSIIMrISNERiverIWGIGoRIVRKiANSAShIOAVrkansrasYKCerUOTNEesvKaviRgieRrRiddvMetropolisBeernnlaavROallNrriceeRkbb mmORrRuuAieCCCvveiRrsTulsaidciWaannhnraiEEtReEECSSeeSSaEEiNNeNNEETTveeAvrRIssZieOFssRNrAeeH TnnU.OStnnSeeANTTIMemphisLRONERWA iCMEXISvAOKLAHOMACSNAKORAHelenaeIrRPeidprPepviRrieIsviSRs iSkAsAIGMRcAOBIAEsLGAaSilMBS giIBMANUUAISIUOLNNTIIEXASVicksburgTT EEMDD ESSXITT CAA TTO EE SS MFOE X I FCLOUG Base from Esri digital data, 2000, 1:3,000,0000400200600 MILESAlbers Equal-Area Conic projectionStandard parallels 20°N and 60°N, central meridian 96°W0200400600 KILOMETERSNorth American Datum of 1983 (NAD 83) Figure 1. Major river basins of the Central United States along with other locations affected by flooding streams from February to SepteHolmes and others, 2013).
40° 30°
4 Annual Exceedance Probabilities and Trends for the Central United States during the 2011 Floods
Precipitation patterns across the Red River and Missis- Mississippi River Basins, with many previous peaks being
sippi River Basins from December 2010 through July 2011 longstanding records. For example, the 2011 peak streamflow
followed the mean position of the jet stream (Vining and on the Souris River above Minot, North Dakota broke a record
others, 2013). During December, January, and February, a set more than 100 years prior. The widespread major flooding
southward push of the jet stream steered several low-pressure in the upper Mississippi River, Missouri, and Ohio Basins in
troughs across the country from the Rocky Mountains into 2011 resulted in record peak streamflows in the lower Missis-
the Ohio River Basin producing copious precipitation. From sippi River; in some locations breaking records established in
March through May, a large low-pressure trough dominated 1927. Records for annual runoff volume were established at
the continental States, and a high-pressure ridge was centered 47 streamgages considered by Holmes and others (2013) in
near the Gulf of Mexico. This weather combination produced the Souris/Red and Mississippi River Basins, with no annual
storms with abundant precipitation along frontal boundaries runoff records occurring in the Ohio or lower Mississippi
that were steered across the Central United States. During June River Basins.
and July, moisture from the southwestern monsoon and the
Gulf of Mexico worked into the Plains States. Low-pressure
troughs moving across the country interacted with the moist Annual Exceedance Probabilities for
unstable air; thunderstorm development along frontal boundar-
Peak Streamflows and Annual Runoff
ies resulted in areas of heavy rain across the Northern Plains
States into the Missouri and upper Mississippi River Basins.
Volumes
Excess precipitation fell on already saturated ground and
ran off into already full streams and rivers, producing severe
flooding in the Mississippi River and Red River Basins during Holmes and others (2013) provided rankings of 2011
spring and summer 2011. peak streamflows or 2011 annual runoff volumes for 497
Holmes and others (2013) documented peak stream- streamgages (fig. 2) in the Central United States for com-
flows, stages, and runoff volumes for the 2011 flooding in the parison with previous large floods. Although rankings help
Central United States. Flooding began in late February 2011 to illustrate relative magnitudes of the floods, evaluation of
in the Mississippi River Basin and continued in parts of the future flood risk requires a probability analysis that involves
Mississippi River or Red/Souris River Basins until Septem- determining parameters needed to estimate a probability distri-
ber 2011. Some locations received multiple flood pulses; bution from a set of observed streamflow data. The probability
the Souris River received two separate flood pulses, and the distribution relates probability to the magnitude of a certain
lower Mississippi River had three separate flood pulses. Peak size flood peak (or annual runoff volume) being equaled or
streamflow records were broken at 105 streamgages consid- exceeded, from which annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs)
ered by Holmes and others (2013) across the Souris/Red and can be estimated.
Flooding along the Missouri River at Sioux City, Iowa, at the I-29/
Hamilton Street interchange, June 13, 2011. Photograph by Joe
Gorman, USGS.