Anchoring amid uncertainty

213 Pages·2004·1.44 MB·English

Anchoring amid uncertainty
On the management of uncertainties
in risk assessment of anthropogenic climate change
Houvast zoeken in onzekerheid
Over het omgaan met onzekerheden
in risicoanalyse van klimaatverandering door menselijk handelen
(met een samenvatting in het Nederlands)
Proefschrift
Ter verkrijging van de graad van doctor
aan de universiteit utrecht,
op gezag van de rector magnificus Prof. dr. J.A. Van Ginkel,
ingevolge het besluit van het college van Decanen
in het openbaar te verdedigen op
maandag 21 april 1997 om 16.15 uur.
door
Jeroen Pieter van der Sluijs
geboren te Herwijnen in 1965
Promotoren: prof.dr. Josee C.M. van Eijndhoven
prof.dr. Wim C. Turkenburg
Beoordelingscommissie: prof.dr.ir. P.J.H. Builtjes (Utrecht University)
prof.dr. P. Vellinga (Free University of Amsterdam)
prof.dr. W.C. Clark (Harvard University)
prof.dr. J. Goudriaan (Agricultural University Wageningen)
dr. J. Ravetz (The Research Methods Consultancy Ltd., London)
Wij zijn maar als de blaren in den wind
ritselend langs de zoom van oude wouden,
en alles is onzeker, en hoe zouden
wij weten wat alleen de wind weet, kind -
(AdriaanRolandHolst,Zwerversliefde,
GrootNederlandII,9,1913,p.580)
Aan Gemma
Contents:
List of acronyms, abbreviations, and chemical symbols
1. General Introduction
1.1 Introduction
1.2 Anthropogenic climate change
1.2.1 Temperature and the radiation balance
1.2.2 The natural greenhouse effect
1.2.3 The enhanced greenhouse effect
1.2.4 Climate change
1.3 Short history of the climate change issue
1.3.1 Research on anthropogenic climate change
1.3.2 Climate risk assessment
1.3.3. Climate change policy development
1.3.4 Controversies on global warming
1.4 Basic notions
1.4.1 Climate risk assessment and post normal science
1.4.2 Uncertainty as a social construct
1.5 Objective, research questions and outline of this thesis
1.6 References
2. Anchoring Devices in Science For Policy: The Case of Consensus Around Climate
Sensitivity
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Science for policy
2.3 The CO doubling temperature: a history of sticking to the same numbers
2
2.3.1 The concept of the ’climate sensitivity’
2.3.2 The construction of the estimate for climate sensitivity
2.3.3 The ’best guess’ and the uncertainty of the climate sensitivity range
2.3.4 Different meanings and functions of climate sensitivity
2.3.5 Multiple functions and uses of the climate sensitivity
2.3.6 The 1.5°C to 4.5°C temperature range as anchoring device in the climate debate
2.4 Conclusion and discussion
2.5 Acknowledgements
2.6 Notes
3 Closure of Disputes in the Assessments of Climate Change in the Netherlands Arena
3.1 Introduction
3.2 The closure time lines
3.3 The construction of the Gezondheidsraad assessments
3.3.1 The Construction of the Gezondheidsraad estimate for climate sensitivity
3.3.2 The CO focus of the Gezondheidsraad
2
3.4 Discussion and Conclusion
3.5 Acknowledgements
3.6 References
4 Biogenic Feedbacks in the Carbonate-Silicate Geochemical Cycle and the Global
Climate
4.1 Introduction
4.2 The carbonate-silicate geochemical cycle
4.3 The model
4.4 Results
4.5 Conclusions and discussion
4.6 Acknowledgements
4.7 References
appendix A The 0-dimensional temperature model
5 Possibilities and Limitations of Integrated Assessment Models for the Climate Issue
5.1 Introduction
5.2 The emergence of IAMs as a science-policy interface
5.3 What are IAMs?
5.3.1 Definitions of IAMs
5.3.2 Variability in IAM-modelling practice
5.4 Key uncertainties and limitations faced by IAMs of the climate issue
5.4.1 Culture and Values
5.4.2 Demands for goods and services
5.4.3 Choice of technologies and practices
5.4.4 Fluxes of material in the environment
5.4.5 Valued Environmental Components
5.4.6 Exposure
5.4.7 Consequences
5.5 The usefulness and use of IAMs for the climate issue
5.5.1 The policy-usefulness of climate IAMs
5.5.2 The context of use of IAMs
5.6 Conclusions
5.7 Acknowledgments
5.8 References
6 Integrated Assessment Models of Climate Change and the Management of Uncertainties
6.1 Introduction
6.2 Classifications of uncertainty
6.3 Addressing uncertainty due to inexactness
6.3.1 Uncertainties in input data and model parameters
6.3.2 Uncertainties regarding conceptual model structure and technical model structure
6.3.3 Uncertainties regarding model completeness
6.4 Addressing unreliability: quality control in IAM practice
6.5 Addressing ignorance
6.5.1 Reducing ignorance through research, a paradox
6.5.2 The modelling of surprise
6.6 Areas for improvement in uncertainty management
6.7 Disentangling the uncertainty problem: adding the quality dimension
6.8 Conclusions
6.9 Acknowledgements
6.10 References
7 Major conclusions of this thesis
Summary
Samenvatting
Curriculum Vitae
Research publications
Nawoord
List of acronyms, abriviations, and chemical symbols
AAAS American Association for the Advancement of Science
AGGG Advisory Group on Greenhouse Gases
AIM Asian-Pacific Integrated Model
ASF Atmospheric Stabilization Framework
ASTM American Society for Testing and Materials
BLAG Long-term carbon cycle model by Berner LAsaga and Garrels
CCC Canadian Climate Center
CCN Cloud Condensation Nuclei
CCOL Coordination Committee on the Ozone Layer
CETA Carbon Emission Trajectory Assessment
CFCs Chlorofluorocarbons
CH CCl Methychloroform
3 3
CH Methane
4
CH Cl Dichloromethane
2 2
CHCl Chloroform
3
CIM Coordination Committee Concerning International Environmental Affairs (The
Netherlands)
CLW Cloud Liquid Water
CO Carbon Monoxide
CO Carbon Dioxide
2
CoP Conference of Parties (to the Climate Convention)
CRMH Central Council for Environmental Hygiene (The Netherlands)
CSERGE Center for Social and Economic Research into the Global Environment
DGM Directorate General for Environmental Protection (VROM, NL)
DICE Dynamic Integrated Climate Economy
DMS Di Methyl Sulphide
EHEP Experimental High Energy Physics
ENSO El Niño Southern Oscillation
ESCAPE Evaluation of Strategies to address Climate change by Adapting to and Preventing
Emissions
EPA Environmental Protection Agency (USA)
ESM Earth System Model
FCCC see UNFCCC
FUND The Climate Framework for Uncertainty, Negotiation, and Distribution
GCAM Global Change Assessment Model
GCM General Circulation Model (also: Global Circulation Model)
GCTE Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GEOCARB GEOchemical CARBoncycle model by Robert Berner
GFDL Geophysics Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
GHGs GreenHouse Gases
GISS NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies
GNP Gross National Product
CSIRO Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (Australia)
CSGC Carbonate-Silicate Geochemical Cycle
HDGEG Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change
IAM Integrated Assessment Model
ICAM Integrated Climate Assessment Model
ICMH Interdepartmental Committee Environmental Hygiene (NL)
ICSU International Council of Scientific Unions
IEA Integrated Environmental Assessment
IGBP International Geosphere Biosphere Programme
IGY International Geophysical Year
IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
IMAGE Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect
IMP Indicative Multi-year Program on Air (NL)
INC International Negotiating Committee (on the FCCC)
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IPCC WGI Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group I
IS92a-f IPCC Scenario a up to and including scenario f, as defined in the 1992 IPCC report
ISSC International Social Science Council
ISM Integrated Science Model for assessment of climate change
KNMI Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut (Royal Netherlands Meteorological
Institute) (NL)
LASOM National Steering Group Environmental Research (NL)
LMD Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (France)
LOS Norwegian Research Centre in Organisation and Management
MAB Man and the Biosphere program
MAGICC Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse gas Induced Climate Change
MARIA Multiregional Approach for Resource and Industry Allocation
MARKAL Market Allocation
MBIS MacKenzie Basin Impact Study
MCS Monte Carlo Simulation
MCW Model of Global Warming Commitment
MERGE Model for Evaluating Regional and Global Effects of GHG Reductions Policies
MIT Massachusetts Institute of Technology
MiniCAM Mini Climate Assessment Model
MPI Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
N O Nitrous Oxide
2
NAPAP National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (USA)
NAS National Academy of Sciences (USA)
NCAR National Center for Atmospheric Research (USA)
NGO Non-Governmental Organization
NH Ammonia
3
NO Nitric Oxide (NO) and/or Nitrogen Dioxide (NO )
x 2
NRP Netherlands National Research Programme on Global Air Pollution and Climate
Change
NUSAP Numeral Unit Spread Assessment Pedigree notational system
NWO Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek (Netherlands Organization
for Scientific Research) (NL)
O Ozone
3
OECD-GREEN Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development GREEN model
PAGE Policy Analysis of the Greenhouse Effect
PAGES PAst Global changES (part of IGBP)
PC Personal Computer
PEF Policy Evaluation Framework
ppmv Parts per million by volume (a measure of concentration)
ppbv Parts per billion by volume (a measure of concentration)
ProCAM Process Oriented Global Change Assessment Model
RAINS Regional Acidification INformation and Simulation
RH Relative Humidity
RICE Regional Integrated Climate Economy (regionalized version of the Nordhaus’ DICE
model)
RIVM Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieuhygiene (National Institute of Public
Health and Environmental Protection) (NL)
RMNO Raad voor het Milieu- en Natuuronderzoek (Advisory Council for Research on
Nature and Environment) (NL)
SAR IPCC’s Second Assessment Report
SBSTA Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice
SCOPE Scientific Committee on the Problems of the Environment
SF Stability Factor
SF Sulfur Hexafluoride
6
SMIC Study of Man’s Impact on Climate
SO Sulfur dioxide
2
SSK Sociology of Scientific Knowledge
TARGETS Tool to Assess Regional and Global Environmental and Health Targets for
Sustainability
UK United Kingdom
UKMO United Kingdom Meteorological Office
ULYSSES Urban LifestYles, SuStainability, and Environmental aSsessment
UN United Nations
UNEP United Nations Environmental Programme
UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organisation
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
US United States of America
VEC Valued Environmental Component
VOC Volatile Organic Compound
VROM Ministerie van Volkshuisvesting, Ruimtelijke Ordening en Milieuhygiene
(Netherlands Ministry of Housing, Physical Planning and the Environment) (NL)
WAIS West Antarctic Ice Sheet
WCRP World Climate Research Programme
WMO World Meteorological Organization
WRI World Resources Institute
WRR Wetenschappelijke Raad voor het Regerings Beleid (Scientific Council for
Government Policy (NL)
YSSP IIASA Young Scientist Summer Program
1. General Introduction
1.1 Introduction
1.2 Anthropogenic climate change
1.2.1 Temperature and the radiation balance
1.2.2 The natural greenhouse effect
1.2.3 The enhanced greenhouse effect
1.2.4 Climate change
1.3 Short history of the climate change issue
1.3.1 Research on anthropogenic climate change
1.3.2 Climate risk assessment
1.3.3 Climate change policy development
1.3.4 Controversies on global warming
1.4 Basic notions
1.4.1 Climate risk assessment and post-normal science
1.4.2 Uncertainty as a social construct
1.5 Objective, research questions and thesis outline
1.6 References
1.1 Introduction
Over the past few decades, several attempts have been made to assess to what
extent man-made emissions of greenhouse gases may change the Earth’s climate. This
thesis consists mainly of a critical analysis of the processes by which the climate issue
has been assessed over that period. We focus particularly on the question of uncertainty
management in climate risk assessment. Assessments serve as a scientific basis for the
climate policy debate. The overall scientific objective of this dissertation is to gain insight
into the processes by which assessments of the risks of anthropogenic climate change are
constructed and more specifically into the way in which uncertainty management is
conducted within these processes. This insight can help us to identify ways of managing
uncertainties in the assessments better and ways of strengthening the role of assessment
as a frame of reference acceptable to actors in the policy process.
Assessment is the analysis and review of information derived from research for the
purpose of helping someone in a position of responsibility to evaluate possible actions or
think about a problem. Assessment usually does not mean doing new research.
Assessment means assembling, summarizing, organizing, interpreting, and possibly
reconciling pieces of existing knowledge, and communicating them so that they are
relevant and helpful for the deliberations of an intelligent but inexpert policy-maker
(Parson, 1995).
Experts started drafting assessment reports on climate change for policy-makers
when research into anthropogenic climate change, and especially climate modelling, was
still in an early stage of development. The first notable assessments of the climate
1