Analyzing and Modeling Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Infectious Diseases

496 Pages·2014·9.65 MB·English

by  Dongmei Chen

Analyzing and Modeling Spatial
and Temporal Dynamics of
Infectious Diseases

Analyzing and Modeling Spatial
and Temporal Dynamics of
Infectious Diseases
Editedby
DONGMEICHEN
DepartmentofGeography
Queen’sUniversity
Kingston,Canada
BERNARDMOULIN
DepartmentofComputerScienceandSoftwareEngineering
LavalUniversity
Que´bec,Canada
JIANHONGWU
DepartmentofMathematicsandStatistics
YorkUniversity
Toronto,Canada
Copyright©2015byJohnWiley&Sons,Inc.Allrightsreserved.
PublishedbyJohnWiley&Sons,Inc.,Hoboken,NewJersey.
PublishedsimultaneouslyinCanada.
Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem,ortransmittedinanyformor
byanymeans,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,recording,scanning,orotherwise,exceptas
permittedunderSection107or108ofthe1976UnitedStatesCopyrightAct,withouteithertheprior
writtenpermissionofthePublisher,orauthorizationthroughpaymentoftheappropriateper-copyfeeto
theCopyrightClearanceCenter,Inc.,222RosewoodDrive,Danvers,MA01923,[phone],
fax[phone],oronthewebatwww.copyright.com.RequeststothePublisherforpermission
shouldbeaddressedtothePermissionsDepartment,JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.,111RiverStreet,Hoboken,
NJ07030,[phone],fax[phone],oronlineathttp://www.wiley.com/go/permissions.
LimitofLiability/DisclaimerofWarranty:Whilethepublisherandauthorhaveusedtheirbesteffortsin
preparingthisbook,theymakenorepresentationsorwarrantieswithrespecttotheaccuracyor
completenessofthecontentsofthisbookandspecificallydisclaimanyimpliedwarrantiesof
merchantabilityorfitnessforaparticularpurpose.Nowarrantymaybecreatedorextendedbysales
representativesorwrittensalesmaterials.Theadviceandstrategiescontainedhereinmaynotbesuitable
foryoursituation.Youshouldconsultwithaprofessionalwhereappropriate.Neitherthepublishernor
authorshallbeliableforanylossofprofitoranyothercommercialdamages,includingbutnotlimitedto
special,incidental,consequential,orotherdamages.
Forgeneralinformationonourotherproductsandservicesorfortechnicalsupport,pleasecontactour
CustomerCareDepartmentwithintheUnitedStatesat(800)762-2974,outsidetheUnitedStatesat
[phone]orfax(317)572-4002.
Wileyalsopublishesitsbooksinavarietyofelectronicformats.Somecontentthatappearsinprintmay
notbeavailableinelectronicformats.FormoreinformationaboutWileyproducts,visitourwebsite
atwww.wiley.com.
LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData:
Analyzingandmodelingspatialandtemporaldynamicsofinfectiousdiseases/[editedby]Dongmei
Chen,BernardMoulin,JianhongWu.
p. ;cm.
Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.
ISBN978-1-118-62993-2(cloth)
I.Chen,Dongmei,1969-editor. II.Moulin,Bernard,1954-editor. III.Wu,Jianhong,1964-editor.
[DNLM:1.CommunicableDiseases–epidemiology. 2.Spatio-TemporalAnalysis. 3.Computer
Simulation. 4.DiseaseTransmission,Infectious–statistics&numericaldata. 5.Models,Statistical.
WA950]
RC111
616.9–dc23
2014011438
PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Contents
Foreword ix
NicholasChrisman
Acknowledgements xi
Editors xiii
Contributors xv
PARTI OVERVIEW
1 IntroductiontoAnalyzingandModelingSpatialandTemporal
DynamicsofInfectiousDiseases 3
DongmeiChen,BernardMoulin,andJianhongWu
2 ModelingtheSpreadofInfectiousDiseases:AReview 19
DongmeiChen
PARTII MATHEMATICALMODELINGOFINFECTIOUS
DISEASES
3 WestNileVirus:ANarrativefromBioinformaticsand
MathematicalModelingStudies 45
U.S.N.Murty,AmitK.Banerjee,andJianhongWu
4 WestNileVirusRiskAssessmentandForecastingUsingStatistical
andDynamicalModels 77
AhmedAbdelrazec,YurongCao,XinGao,PaulProctor,HuiZheng,and
HuaipingZhu
v
vi CONTENTS
5 UsingMathematicalModelingtoIntegrateDiseaseSurveillanceand
GlobalAirTransportationData 97
JulienArinoandKamranKhan
6 MalariaModelswithSpatialEffects 109
DaozhouGaoandShiguiRuan
7 AvianInfluenzaSpreadandTransmissionDynamics 137
LydiaBourouiba,StephenGourley,RongsongLiu,JohnTakekawa,and
JianhongWu
PARTIII SPATIALANALYSISANDSTATISTICALMODELING
OFINFECTIOUSDISEASES
8 AnalyzingthePotentialImpactofBirdMigrationontheGlobal
SpreadofH5N1AvianInfluenza(2007–2011)UsingSpatiotemporal
MappingMethods 163
HeatherRichardsonandDongmeiChen
9 CloudComputing–EnabledClusterDetectionUsingaFlexibly
ShapedScanStatisticforReal-TimeSyndromicSurveillance 177
PaulBelangerandKieranMoore
10 MappingtheDistributionofMalaria:CurrentApproachesand
FutureDirections 189
LeahR.Johnson,KevinD.Lafferty,AmyMcNally,ErinMordecai,Krijn
P.Paaijmans,SamraatPawar,andSadieJ.Ryan
11 StatisticalModelingofSpatiotemporalInfectious
DiseaseTransmission 211
RobDeardon,XuanFang,andGraceP.S.Kwong
12 SpatiotemporalDynamicsofSchistosomiasisinChina:
Bayesian-BasedGeostatisticalAnalysis 233
Zhi-JieZhang
13 SpatialAnalysisandStatisticalModelingof2009H1N1Pandemic
intheGreaterTorontoArea 247
FrankWen,DongmeiChen,andAnnaMajury
14 WestNileVirusMosquitoAbundanceModelingUsing
NonstationarySpatiotemporalGeostatistics 263
Eun-HyeYoo,DongmeiChen,andCurtisRussel
CONTENTS vii
15 SpatialPatternAnalysisofMultivariateDiseaseData 283
CindyX.FengandCharmaineB.Dean
PARTIV GEOSIMULATIONANDTOOLSFORANALYZING
ANDSIMULATINGSPREADSOFINFECTIOUS
DISEASES
16 TheZoonosisMAGSProject(Part1):Population-Based
GeosimulationofZoonosesinanInformedVirtualGeographic
Environment 299
BernardMoulin,MondherBouden,andDanielNavarro
17 ZoonosisMAGSProject(Part2):Complementarityofa
Rapid-PrototypingToolandofaFull-ScaleGeosimulatorfor
Population-BasedGeosimulationofZoonoses 341
BernardMoulin,DanielNavarro,DominicMarcotte,SaidSedrati,and
MondherBouden
18 WebMappingandBehaviorPatternExtractionToolstoAssess
LymeDiseaseRiskforHumansinPeri-urbanForests 371
HediHaddad,BernardMoulin,FranckManirakiza,ChristelleMe´ha,
VincentGodard,andSamuelMermet
19 AnIntegratedApproachforCommunicableDiseaseGeosimulation
BasedonEpidemiological,HumanMobilityandPublic
InterventionModels 403
HediHaddad,BernardMoulin,andMariusThe´riault
20 SmartphoneTrajectoriesasDataSourcesforAgent-based
Infection-spreadModeling 443
MarciaR.FriesenandRobertD.McLeod
Index 473