Analysis of civilian employee attrition at the Naval Postgraduate School and Naval Support Activity-Monterey Bay.

180 Pages·1997·7.7 MB·en_US

by  Valverde, Xavier F.

NPS ARCHIVE
1997,03
valvtox^
POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL
Monterey, California
THESIS
ANALYSIS OF CIVILIAN EMPLOYEE
ATTRITION AT THE NAVAL POSTGRADUATE
SCHOOL AND NAVAL SUPPORT ACTIVITY-
MONTEREY BAY
by
Xavier F. Valverde
March, 1997
Thesis Co-Advisors: Paul R. Milch
Linda Wargo
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
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TGRADUATE SCHOOL
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1. AGENCYUSE ONLY (Leaveblank) 2. REPORTDATE REPORTTYPEANDDATESCOVERED
March 1997 Master's Thesis
TITLEANDSUBTITLEANALYSIS OF CIVILIAN EMPLOYEE FUNDINGNUMBERS
ATTRITION AT THENAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL AND
NAVAL SUPPORTACTIVITY-MONTEREY BAY
6. AUTHOR(S)Valverde, XavierF.
7. PERFORMINGORGANIZATIONNAME(S)ANDADDRESS(ES) PERFORMING
Naval Postgraduate School ORGANIZATION
Monterey CA 93943-5000 REPORTNUMBER
SPONSORING/MONITORINGAGENCYNAME(S)ANDADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING
AGENCYREPORTNUMBER
11. SUPPLEMENTARYNOTES Theviews expressedinthis thesis arethoseofthe author anddo notreflectthe
official policy orpositionofthe DepartmentofDefenseortheU.S. Government.
12a. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITYSTATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTIONCODE
Approved forpublicrelease; distribution is unlimited.
13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200words)
Thepurpose ofthis thesis is to assistmanagement attheNaval Postgraduate School (NPS) andNaval Support
Activity-Monterey Bay (NSA-MB) todeterminewhat civiliannon-facultyemployeejobs arelikelytobe leftvacant
inthenextthreeyears dueto attrition andto identifywhattraining and skills will beneededbypersonnel whose
jobs maybe eliminated inordertobe transferredtojobs leftvacant dueto attrition. Theresearchmethods include
forecasting andwork-analysis. The datawere obtained fromthe Defense Civilian Personnel Data System file for
fiscalyears 1989 to 1996. Theresults showtenjobs, basedon averagenumberofaccessions, attritionrates,
forecastedvacancies, and qualificationsimilarities, thatmaybe leftvacanttoreceivetransferredpersonnel. The
results also showthatthetrainingneededto effectivelytransferpersonnel will beminimal and canbe provided at
local technical/vocational schools forthoseworking in Clerical andAdministrativepositions and atNPS forthose
working inAdministrative and Managementpositions. Because ofjob specialization and low attrition rates,
Firefighters, Police Officers, HeavyMobile EquipmentMechanics, andAutomotive Mechanics willneedmuch
training ifthey are to betransferredto otherjobs atNPS andNSA-MB. Itis recommendedthatmanagement
interveneto changehiringpractices to increase future vacancies injobs whosevacancies maynotbe sufficient
enough innumberormaynot appear quicklyenoughtoreceivepersonnel. Three scenarios usingthe forecasting
model are presentedtoprovide alternativemethods ofincreasingthosevacancies.
14. SUBJECTTERMSAttrition, Forecasting, Force Reduction, Work-Analysis 15. NUMBEROF
PAGES 176
16. PRICECODE
17. SECURITYCLASSIFICA- 18. SECURITYCLASSIFI- 19. SECURITYCLASSIFICA- 20. LIMITATIONOF
TIONOFREPORT CATIONOFTHISPAGE TIONOFABSTRACT ABSTRACT
UL
Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified
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Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
ANALYSIS OF CIVILIAN EMPLOYEE ATTRITION AT THE NAVAL
POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL AND NAVAL SUPPORT ACTIVITY-
MONTEREY BAY
Xavier F. Valverde
[J
Lieutenant, United States Navy
B.A., University ofWashington, 1990
Submitted in partial fulfillment
ofthe requirements for the degree of
MASTER OF SCIENCE IN MANAGEMENT
from the
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL
March 1997
Value v^-e, X.
DUDLEYKNOXLIBRARY
! I -GRADUATE SCHOOL
MOI CA
93&43-oi01
ABSTRACT
The purpose of this thesis is to assist management at the Naval Postgraduate
School (NPS) and Naval Support Activity-Monterey Bay (NSA-MB) to determine
what civilian non-faculty employeejobs are likely to be left vacant in the next three
years due to attrition and to identify what training and skills will be needed by
personnel whose jobs may be eliminated in order to be transferred to jobs left
vacant due to attrition. The research methods include forecasting and work-
analysis. The data were obtained from the Defense Civilian Personnel Data System
files for fiscal years 1989 to 1996. The results show ten jobs, based on average
number of accessions, attrition rates, forecasted vacancies, and qualification
similarities, that may be left vacant to receive transferred personnel. The results
also show that the training needed to effectively transfer personnel will be minimal
and can be provided at local technical/vocational schools for those working in
Clerical and Administrative positions and at NPS for those working in
Administrative and Managerial positions. Because ofjob specialization and low
attrition rates, Firefighters, Police Officers, Heavy Mobile Equipment Mechanics,
and Automotive Mechanics will need much more training if they are to be
transferred to other jobs at NPS and NSA-MB. It is recommended that
management intervene to change hiring practices to increase future vacancies injobs
whose vacancies may not be sufficient enough in number or may not appear quickly
enough to receive personnel. Three scenarios using the forecasting model are
presented to provide alternative methods of increasing those vacancies.
VI
.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
I. INTRODUCTION 1
A. BACKGROUND
1
B. THESIS OVERVIEW 2
C. RESEARCH QUESTIONS AND SCOPE 3
II. CONCEPTS AND LITERATURE REVIEW 7
A. GENERAL 7
B. PLANNING 7
C. FORECASTING 8
Purpose
1 8
2. Process 8
a. Steps 9
b. Segmentation 10
c. Inventory 11
....
D. FACTORS INFLUENCING THE FORECAST MODEL 11
E. WORK-ANALYSIS 12
F. SUMMARY 13
III. DATA COLLECTION, MODEL FORMULATION, AND METHODOLOGY
15
A. DATA 15
1. Data Files 15
2. Data Collection 16
Vll
B. MODEL FORMULATION 2
1. Stocks 20
2. Attrites 21
3. Attrition Rate 22
4. Accessions 24
5. Forecasting 25
C. METHODOLOGY 26
IV. ANALYSIS, SCENARIOS, AND JOB COMPARISONS 29
A. ANALYSIS 29
1. Stocks, Attrites, and Accessions 30
2. Forecasts 31
3. Interpretation 32
a. Financial Group 32
b. Other Groups 32
(1) Safety, Fire, and Police Group.
33
(2) HRO Personnel Group 34
....
Administrative Group. 35
(3)
Computer Operators/Specialists
(4)
Group. 36
(5) Engineers/Technicians Group. . 38
(6) Procurement/Supply Group. . . 39
(7) Public Works/Staff Group. . . 41
Vlll