An Unwritten Future: Realism and Uncertainty in World Politics

337 Pages·2022·23.876 MB·English

by  Jonathan Kirshner

an unwritten future
Princet on Studies in International History
and Politics
tanisha M. fazal, G. John ikenberry,
williaM C. wohlforth, and keren
yarhi-M ilo, SerieS editorS
For a full list of titles in the series, go to https://press.princeton.edu/
series/princeton-studies-in-international-history-and-politics
An Unwritten Future: Realism and Uncertainty in World Politics,
Jonathan Kirshner
Human Rights for Pragmatists: Social Power in Modern Times,
Jack L. Snyder
Seeking the Bomb: Strategies of Nuclear Proliferation, Vipin Narang
The Spectre of War: International Communism and the Origins of
World War II, Jonathan Haslam
Active Defense: China’s Military Strategy since 1949, M. Taylor Fravel
Strategic Instincts: The Adaptive Advantages of Cognitive Biases
in International Politics, Dominic D. P. Johnson
Divided Armies: In equality and Battlefield Per for mance in Modern
War, Jason Lyall
Active Defense: China’s Military Strategy since 1949, M. Taylor Fravel
After Victory: Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Rebuilding of
Order a fter Major Wars, New Edition, G. John Ikenberry
Cult of the Irrelevant: The Waning Influence of Social Science on
National Security, Michael C. Desch
Secret Wars: Covert Conflict in International Politics, Austin Carson
Who Fights for Reputation: The Psy chol ogy of Leaders in
International Conflict, Keren Yarhi- Milo
Aftershocks: Great Powers and Domestic Reforms in the Twentieth
Century, Seva Gunitsky
Why Wilson Matters: The Origin of American Liberal
Internationalism and Its Crisis Today, Tony Smith
Powerplay: The Origins of the American Alliance System in Asia,
Victor D. Cha
Economic Interdependence and War, Dale C. Copeland
An Unwritten F uture
realisM and unCertainty
in world politiCs
Jonathan Kirshner
prinCe ton university press
prinCet on & oxford
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To Max and Anna, for living it, and to
Peter and Matt, for making it poss i ble

Contents
List of Illustrations  · i x
Preface  · x i
Introduction and Overview 1
Chapter 1 What Is Classical Realism? Thucydides
and His Descendants 13
Chapter 2 Reclaiming Realism 43
Chapter 3 Why We Need Classical Realism:
Enduring Puzzles 81
Chapter 4 The Limits of Classical Realism 124
Chapter 5 Realism, Economics, and Politics 147
Chapter 6 Classical Realism and the Rise of China 180
Chapter 7 Power, Politics, and Prospect: The Craft of
Classical Realism 214
Acknowl edgments  · 2 41
Notes  · 2 43
Index  · 3 13
[ vii ]

illustrations
1. Supply and Demand for Ketchup 72
2. Supply and Demand for Ketchup with Policy Intervention 73
3. Liberalism, Realism, and Constructivism 76
4. Envisioning the Rationality of the Actor 79
[ ix ]