An Introduction to Probability and Inductive Logic

1.94 MB·English

by  Ian Hacking

more information – www.cambridge.org/9780521772877

An Introduction to Probability and Inductive Logic
This is an introductory textbook on probability and induction written by one of the
world’s foremost philosophers of science. The book has been designed to offer
maximal accessibility to the widest range of students (not only those majoring in
philosophy)andassumesnoformaltraininginelementarysymboliclogic.Itoffersa
comprehensivecoursecoveringallbasicdefinitionsofinductionandprobability,and
it considers such topics as decision theory, Bayesianism, frequency ideas, and the
philosophicalproblemofinduction.
Thekeyfeaturesofthisbookare:
(cid:1) Alivelyandvigorousprosestyle
(cid:1) Lucidandsystematicorganizationandpresentationofideas
(cid:1) Manypracticalapplications
(cid:1) Arichsupplyofexercisesdrawingonexamplesfromsuchfieldsaspsychology,
ecology,economics,bioethics,engineering,andpoliticalscience
(cid:1) Numerous brief historical accounts of how fundamental ideas of probability
andinductiondeveloped
(cid:1) Afullbibliographyoffurtherreading
Although designed primarily for courses in philosophy, the book could certainly be
readandenjoyedbythoseinthesocialsciences(particularlypsychology,economics,
politicalscience,andsociology)ormedicalsciences(suchasepidemiology)seekinga
reader-friendlyaccountofthebasicideasofprobabilityandinduction.
IanHackingisUniversityProfessorinPhilosophyattheUniversityofTorontoanda
Professor at the Colle`ge de France in Paris. He is the author of many books; his
previousbookswithCambridgeUniversityPressincludeTheLogicofStatisticalInfer-
ence,TheEmergenceofProbability,andTheTamingofChance.

AN INTRODUCTION TO
Probability and
Inductive Logic
IAN HACKING
Universityof Toronto
Colle`gede France
CAMBRIDGEUNIVERSITYPRESS
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São Paulo,Delhi,Dubai,Tokyo
Cambridge University Press
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www.cambridge.org
Information on this title:www.cambridge.org/9780521772877
©Ian Hacking 2001
This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception
and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements,
no reproduction of any part may take place without the written
permission of Cambridge University Press.
First published 2001
9th printing 2009
Printed in the United States of America
Acatalog record for this publication is available from the British Library.
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Hacking,Ian.
An introduction to probability and inductive logic / Ian Hacking.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-521-77287-7 – ISBN 0-521-77501-9 (pbk.)
1. Probabilities. 2. Induction (Logic). I. Title.
BC141.H33 2001
160–dc21 00-045503
ISBN 978-0-521-77287-7 Hardback
ISBN 978-0-521-77501-4 Paperback
Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or
accuracyof URLs for external or third-party Internet Web sites referred to in
this publication and does not guarantee that any content on such Web sites is,
or will remain,accurate or appropriate.
For Sam

Contents
ANoteontheCoverIllustration pageix
Foreword xi
OddQuestions xv
LOGIC
1 Logic 1
2 WhatIsInductiveLogic? 11
HOWTOCALCULATEPROBABILITIES
3 TheGambler’sFallacy 23
4 ElementaryProbabilityIdeas 37
5 ConditionalProbability 47
6 TheBasicRulesofProbability 58
7 Bayes’Rule 69
HOWTOCOMBINEPROBABILITIESANDUTILITIES
8 ExpectedValue 79
9 MaximizingExpectedValue 98
10 DecisionunderUncertainty 114
KINDSOFPROBABILITY
11 WhatDoYouMean? 127
12 TheoriesaboutProbability 140
PROBABILITYASAMEASUREOFBELIEF
13 PersonalProbabilities 151
14 Coherence 163
15 LearningfromExperience 171
vii
viii Contents
PROBABILITYASFREQUENCY
16 Stability 189
17 NormalApproximations 201
18 SignificanceandPower 209
19 ConfidenceandInductiveBehavior 229
PROBABILITYAPPLIEDTOPHILOSOPHY
20 ThePhilosophicalProblemofInduction 247
21 LearningfromExperienceasanEvasionoftheProblem
ofInduction 256
22 InductiveBehaviorasanEvasionoftheProblemof
Induction 261
AnswerstotheExercises 269
FurtherReading 293
Index 300