An Econometric Study for the Fisheries and Aquaculture Sector in Sudan

118 Pages·2011·0.65 MB·English

An Econometric Study for the
Fisheries and Aquaculture
Sector in Sudan
A Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfillment to the University of
Khartoum for the Requirement of Degree of Master of Science
in Econometrics and Social Statistics
By
Rawia Mohammed Ahmed Hafiz
B.Sc(honors)in Econometrics and Social Statistics
University of Khartoum 2005
Supervisor
Dr: Ahmed AlSheikh MohamedAhmed

Department of Econometrics and Social Statistics
Faculty of Economic and Social Studies

June - 2010
i
:
List of contents

Subject Page -No
Verse Vi
Dedication vii
Acknowledgment Viii
Abstract Ix
chapter (1)
“Introduction”
Introduction 1
The research problem 2
Reasons for selecting the problem 2
Importance of problem and consequences on
2
examination
Research hypotheses 3
Research methodology 3
Data Sources 3
Organization of the study 4
chapter (2)
" Literature Review"
Historical overview 6
Stages of development 8
Water resources 8
Types of fisheries 10
Ways and means of fishing 12
Transportation 14
Loss during transport and booking 17
Fish as important food 17
Protein content in fish meat 18
Calorific value of fish oil 18
Vitamins 19
Minerals 20
Canned fish 21
Summary of the nutritional benefits of seafood 22
Fish waste 23
the economic importance of fish 24
Food and its role in the development of local 24
communities
ii
Industry 25
Ornamental fish 29
Export 29
Employment 30
usual signs of over fishing in fisheries 30
Pollution 31
Chapter (3)
Fisheries In Sudan
Fisheries Resources in the Sudan 32
Equipment and means of fishing and fishermen 37
Farming 38
Transportation and marketing 40
Preservation 42
Industry 45
previous studies 48
Chapter (4)

"Specification Of The Model"
Demand 51
Regression 54
Unit Root Test 55
Dickey Fuller Test 55
Residual Test 57
Cointegration 59
chapter (5)
" Discussion & Evaluation of Results"

Principal Component Analysis 62
Regression analysis 67
Time series analysis 76
chapter (6)
" Concluding Remarks &Recommendation"

Concluding Remarks 93
Recommendations 95
Sources and references 107

iii
List of Tables:

The Table Subject Page -No
Table (2.1) Percentage of global fishing as group weight 9
Table (3.1) Farms Of Capital 40
Table (5.1) Correlation 62
Table (5.2) Correlation Matrix 63
Table (5.3) KMO & Bartlett’s Test 63
Table (5.4) Communalities 63
Table (5.5) Total Variance Explained 64
Table (5.6) Component Matrix 66
Table (5.7) Rotated Component Matrix 66
Table (5.8) Component Transformation Matrix 67
Table (5.9) Model Summary 68
Table (5.10) ANOVA 68
Table (5.11) Coefficients 68
Table (5.12) Model Summary 69
Table (5.13) ANOVA 69
Table (5.14) Coefficients 69
Table (5.15) Excluded Variables 70
Table (5.16) Demand Function 71
Table (5.17) Forecast of Demand 72
Table (5.18) Descriptives 73
Table (5.19) F-statistic Test 75
Table (5.20) ADF Test Statistic for y series 76
Table (5.21) Correlogram of y 77
Table (5.22) ARMA(1) Model 78
Table (5.23) Time As Regressor 79
Table (5.24) Q-statistics & lm test 82
Table (5.25) Forecast of y (quantity of fish)-months by (kg) 85
Table (5.26) YF-Years by (tones) 86
Table (5.27) ADF Test Statistic for series X 86
Table (5.28) Regression of (Y-fish quantity)on (X-price of
87
fish)
Table (5.29) Q-statistics 88
Table (5.30) lm test 89
Table (5.31) VAR Model 90
Table (5.32) VEC MODEL 91
Table (5.33) Cointegration Test 92
iv
List of Graphs:

The Graph subject Page -No
Graph (5.1) Scree Plot 65
Graph (5.2) Component Plot In Rotated Space 65
Graph (5.3) Histogram 70
Graph (5.4) Plot of Regression 70
Graph (5.5) Stocks 74
Graph (5.6) Production 74
Graph (5.7) Biodiversity or species of fish 75
Graph (5.8) Series y (quantity of fish) - not stationary 80
Graph (5.9) Series y - stationary 80
Graph (5.10) Y Estimated(Y^) & D(Y) 81
Graph (5.11) Secular Trend 81
Graph (5.12) Error Series 83
Graph (5.13) Forecast of Y 83
Graph (5.14) Y Forecast 84
Graph (5.15) Forecast Error 84
Co-integration between y & x (fish quantity
Graph (5.16) 92
& fish price)

v
ﺔــــــــــــــﻳﻵا

ﻢﻴﺣﺮﻟا ﻦﻤﺣﺮﻟا ﷲا ﻢﺴﺑ
ﺔً ﻴَﻠْﺣِ ﻪُ ﻨْﻣِ اْﻮﺟُ ﺮِ ﺨْ ﺘَﺴْ ﺗَوَ ﺎﻳﺮِ ﻃَ ﺎﻤً ﺤْ ﻟَ ﻪُ ﻨْﻣِ اْﻮﻠُآُﺄْﺘَﻟِ ﺮَ ﺤْ ﺒَﻟْا ﺮَ ﺨﱠ ﺳَ يﺬِﻟﱠا ﻮَ هُ وَ }
{ نَ وﺮُ ﻜُﺸْ ﺗَ ﻢْ ﻜُﻠﱠﻌَﻟَوَ ﻪِ ﻠِﻀْ ﻓَ ﻦﻣِ اْﻮﻐُﺘَﺒْﺘَﻟِوَ ﻪِ ﻴﻓِ ﺮَ ﺧِ اﻮَ ﻣَ ﻚَ ﻠْﻔُﻟْا ىﺮَ ﺗَوَ ﺎﻬَ ﻧَﻮﺴُ ﺒَﻠْﺗَ
14 : ﻞﺤﻨﻟا
ﱟﻞآُ ﻦﻣِ وَ جٌ ﺎﺟَ أُ ﺢٌ ﻠْﻣِ اﺬَهَ وَ ﻪُ ﺑُاﺮَ ﺷَ ﻎٌ ﺋِﺎﺳَ تٌ اﺮَ ﻓُ بٌ ﺬْ ﻋَ اﺬَهَ نِ اﺮَ ﺤْ ﺒَﻟْا يﻮِ ﺘَﺴْ ﻳَ ﺎﻣَ وَ }
ﺮَ ﺧِ اﻮَ ﻣَ ﻪِ ﻴﻓِ ﻚَ ﻠْﻔُﻟْا ىﺮَ ﺗَوَ ﺎﻬَ ﻧَﻮﺴُ ﺒَﻠْﺗَ ﺔً ﻴَﻠْﺣِ نَ ﻮﺟُ ﺮِ ﺨْ ﺘَﺴْ ﺗَوَ ﺎﻳﺮِ ﻃَ ﺎﻤً ﺤْ ﻟَ نَ ﻮﻠُآُﺄْﺗَ
. [
12 : ﺮﻃﺎﻓ { نَ وﺮُ ﻜُﺸْ ﺗَ ﻢْ ﻜُﻠﱠﻌَﻟَوَ ﻪِ ﻠِﻀْ ﻓَ ﻦﻣِ اﻮﻐُﺘَﺒْﺘَﻟِ
ﻢﻴﻈﻌﻟا ﷲا قﺪﺻ

vi
Dedicate
To ...

My mother, who taught me the meaning of willpower ,
perseverance, and diligence,,,
My father, who stick into me love of science and search
for knowledge,, and Has no spared effort to encourage
me,,,,
My brothers and sisters who were and still are a living
example of excellence and set a good example to me,,,
My colleagues who Surrounded me by spirit of love and
intimacy and Community,,,
Who taught me to hold pen to scribble characters,,,

vii
Acknowledgment

Thank to all teachers, Faculty of Economics Department of
Econometrics and Social Statistics and special thanks to my
teacher / Ahmed AlSheikh,,,
Who flames in me and my colleagues and successive
generations of excellence who graduated at his hands, the
path of science and looking for the best

All personnel of the Ministry of Animal Resources and
Fisheries Research Center, who did not hesitate a moment to
extend me a helping hand and assistance needed,,,

viii
Abstract

Name: Rawia Mohammed Ahmed Hafiz
Research Title: An Econometric Study for the Fisheries and
Aquaculture Sector in Sudan.
The Sudan possesses a huge wealth in animal resources, which is
important base for food security and economic development. The fisheries
sector in Sudan suffers a clear negligence as a result of the lack of fisheries
law which was completed and fulfilled since the year 2000, and still lies in
the files of the Ministry of Justice since that time, and never activated.
The study is based on the knowledge of demand and consumption of fish,
and the extent of the exploitation made to benefit from this great wealth in
the Sudan.
Research data has been collected from the Ministry of Animal Resources
and the Central Bureau of Statistics in the period between 1980-2009.
Linear regression and time series analysis are used to specify, estimate, and
evaluate statistically and economically the result obtained by employing
(SPSS) and (E-views) packages. The results showed the extent of failure
experienced by this sector. Despite demand for fish is on the increase but
still there is lack of health awareness as consumption of red meat is
preferred.
Based on the results reached, the study made a number of
recommendations, the most important of all is that efforts should be exerted
to increase the production of fish and to change the pattern of meat
consumption in Sudan.
The tendency of individuals for the consumption of red meat can be
explained by it’s relative abundance. Thus efforts should be made to raise
it’s production, and to raise awareness and perception of health and food
since meat fish is of most nutritional value.
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