an assessment of the practices and challenges of modular master's program of addis ababa ...

132 Pages·2014·1.86 MB·English

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A Thesis
Presented to the school of graduate studies
of Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa

In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of
Master of Arts in Geography and Environmental Studies
(Specialization: climate change adaptation)

By:
Mesfin Tesfaye Demissie

June 2012
AAU
Declaration
I, the undersigned, declare that this thesis is my original work and has not been
presented for a degree in any other university and that all sources of materials used for
the thesis have been duly acknowledged.
Declared by:
Name: Mesfin Tesfaye
Signature: ––––––––––––––––––––––
Date: ––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––

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ADDIS ABABA UNIVERSITY
SCHOOL OF GRADUATE STUDIES
DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY ANDENVIRONMENTAL
STUDIES

This is to certify that the thesis prepared by Mesfin Tesfaye Demissie entitled:
Communities’ perception on climate change variability and attitudes towards
livelihood adaptation strategies and submitted in partial fulfillment of the
requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in Geography and Environmental studies
(specialization: Climate change adaptation) compiles with the regulations of the
university and meet the standards with respect to originality and quality.

Approval by the Board of Examiners

Name: Signature

Advisor: Muluneh W/Tsadik (PhD) _______________
Examiner: Mohammed Assen (PhD) _______________

Chair of department of graduate program coordinator
3
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Almighty God deserves the first word of thanks for all the achievements which I have
been able to attain in my entire life and for the successful completion of my two years
postgraduate degree course in Climate change adaptation.
I would like to express my sincere thanks and deep gratitude to my advisor Dr.
Muluneh W/Tsadik for his commitment and dedication to help me bring my thesis to
this end tirelessly. My work would have not come to this end had it not been for
tireless assistance and availability the time I needed him.
My special thanks also extend to Dr. Dessalegn Wana and Dr. Eshetu Gurmu for their
brotherly advice on my thesis work and personal life throughout the two academic
years of the program.
I would like to express heartfelt thanks to Tsega Gashu,Colonel Tadege Yehuala and
Dereje Hailemariam for their indispensable moral and material support from the
beginning until the end of the thesis. Heartfelt thanks also go to my sister Genet
Tesfaye for her priceless psychological appreciations and support throughout my
study.
I am indebted to my respondents / sources of information /rural communities of the
study areas for their time to respond to my questioner and cooperation for all my
questions and their hospitality while I was collecting information who made this paper
come to an end and north Showa zone agriculture and rural development, education
bureau, special thanks to, Ato Siyoum Nigussie for his positive thinking and
willingness to accommodate and help individuals who are working research in the
zone.
It might be unusual to extend thanks for individuals who delay someone feat; God
changed their barrier and made me to be stronger in my careers as well as in pursing
my further study. Therefore, my heartfelt thanks go to my former bosses, Ato Tadesse
Hailu.

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Table of contents
Content page
Acknowledgements .............................................................................................................. i
Table of contents ................................................................................................................ iii
List of tables ...................................................................................................................... vi
List of figure ...................................................................................................................... vii
Abstract ............................................................................................................................ viii
Acronyms .......................................................................................................................... ix

Chapter One
Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 1
1.1. Back ground of the problem ......................................................................................... 1
1.2. Statement of the problem ............................................................................................. 2
1.3. Objectives of the study ................................................................................................ 7
1.4. Research questions ...................................................................................................... 7
1.5. The variable .................................................................................................................. 8
1.5.1. Dependent variables .................................................................................................. 8
1.5.2. Independent variables ................................................................................................ 8
1.6. Conceptual framework ................................................................................................. 8
1.7. Significance of the study ........................................................................................... 11
1.8. Scope of the study ..................................................................................................... 12

Chapter Two
Review of related literature .............................................................................................. 13
2.1 Climate variability and change in Ethiopia ................................................................ 13
2.2. Causes of vulnerability to climate conditions in Ethiopia.......................................... 15
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2.3. Climate variability, change and observed trends of Ethiopia..................................... 16
2.3.1. Rainfall variability................................................................................................... 16
2.3.2. Temperature variability ........................................................................................... 20
2.4. Causes of climate variability and change in Ethiopia ................................................ 22
2.5. Impacts of climate variability and change in Ethiopia .............................................. 25
2.6. Government policy on climate change ....................................................................... 31
Chapter Three
Description of the study area and research methodology .............................................. 34
3.1.description of the study area ....................................................................................... 34
3.1.1.location ........................................................................................................... 34
3.1.2. Topography ...................................................................................................... 35
3.1.3. Climate ............................................................................................................. 35
3.2. Type and source of data ............................................................................................. 36
3.3. Determination of sample size ..................................................................................... 36
3.4. Methods of data collection ......................................................................................... 38
3.4.1. Field observation and informal interview .................................................. 38
3.4.2. Structured interview ......................................................................................... 39
3.4.3.administration of the questionnaire ................................................................. 39
3.5. Method of data analysis ........................................................................................... 39
Chapter four
Data presentation and analysis ......................................................................................... 41
4.1. Demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the respondents ................... 41
4.2. Perception on the cause of climate change................................................................. 44
4.3. Perception on the consequences of climate change .................................................. 45
4.4. Perception towards indicators of climate change ................................................... 46
4.4.1. Rainfall and temperature amount ............................................................. 46
4.4.2. Unseasonal distribution pattern of rainfall ..................................................... 47
iii
4.4.3. Water volume and surface water cycle .......................................................... 48
4.4.4. Communities’ perception on the impacts of temporal distribution pattern of
rainfall and water volume fluctuation ..................................................................... 49
4.5.perception on implimenting the livelihood adaptation strategies............................... 51
4.6. Farmers’ sources of information on livelihood adaptation strategies ....................... 52
4.7. Assessing communities’ perceptions on climate variability and change .................. 53
4.7.1. Comparison between communities’ perceptions of changes in climate and
meteorological recorded data .................................................................................... 53
4.7.1.1. Temperature changes .................................................................................... 53
4.7.1.2. Changes in precipitation ............................................................................. 54
Chapter five
Factors affecting communities’ perception towards climate variability, change and
livelihood adaptation strategies ....................................................................................... 56
5.1. Age and perception..................................................................................................... 56
5.1.1. Relationship between respondents’ age and perception about causes of
climate variability and change .................................................................................. 56
5.1.2 Relationship between respondents age and perception on the impacts of
climate change and variability .................................................................................... 57
5.1.3. Relationship between respondents’ age perception on the livelihood
adaptationstrategies ..................................................................................................... 59
5.2 Educational background and perception ..................................................................... 60
5.2.1. Causes and consquence of climate variability and change .................................... 61
5.3.the livelihood adaptation strategies ............................................................................. 62
5.4. Perception towards implimentating livelihood adaptation strategies ........................ 63
5.4.1. Age and implimentation of livelihood adaptation strategies .................................. 63
5.4.2 Educational background and implimentation of the livelihood adaptation
strategies ............................................................................................................................ 65
iv
Chapter six
Summary, conclusion and recommendation ..................................................................... 67
6.1.summary ...................................................................................................................... 67
6.1.1. Rural communities’ perception about the Causes and Consequence of climate
variability change. ............................................................................................................. 67
6.1.2. Perception of rural Communities towards preference and uses the Livelihood
Adaptation Strategies ........................................................................................................ 69
6.1.3. Factors Affecting the rural communities’ perception and attitude .......................... 69
6.2. Conclusion ................................................................................................................ 70
6.2.1. Communities perceive climate change .................................................................... 71
6.2.2. Rainy seasons are changing .................................................................................... 71
6.3. Recommendation ..................................................................................................... 73
References .................................................................................................................... 74
Appendix 1 ........................................................................................................................ 82
Appendix 2 ........................................................................................................................ 87
Appendix 3 ........................................................................................................................ 89
Annex 1 ............................................................................................................................ 89
Annex 2 ............................................................................................................................. 90
Annex 3 ............................................................................................................................. 90
Annex 4 ............................................................................................................................. 91
Annex 5 ............................................................................................................................. 91
Annex 6 ............................................................................................................................. 92

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List of Table
Table 2.1 Top ten disasters in Ethiopia ........................................................................... 28
Table 3.1 sampling distribution of household heads in three RKA’s .............................. 38
Table 4.1 percentage distribution of respondents’ perception on the consequences of
CVC ................................................................................................................................ 46
Table 5.1 Chi-square distribution of respondents’ in age and perception on the cause
of CC ................................................................................................................................ 57
Table 5.2 Chi-square distribution of respondents’ age and perception on the
consequences of CVC ....................................................................................................... 58
Table 5.3 Chi-square distribution of respondents’ perception on the livelihood
adaptation strategies ....................................................................................................... 59
Table 5.4 Chi-square distribution of respondents’ level of education and perception on
the cause of climate change .............................................................................................. 60
Table 5.5 Chi-square distribution of respondents’ level of education and perception on
the consequences of climate variability and change ......................................................... 61
Table 5.6 Chi-square distribution about the relationship between level of education
and preferences of livelihood adaptation strategies ......................................................... 63
Table 5.7 Relationship between age and implementation of livelihood adaptation
strategies ........................................................................................................................... 64
Table 5.8 Relationships between education and implementation of the livelihood
adaptation strategies .......................................................................................................... 65

vi
List of Figures
Figure 1: The conceptual frame work for the study .......................................................... 10
Figure.2.1 Seasonal precipitation of Abay basin............................................................... 17
Figure.2.2 Precipitation rate in mm ................................................................................. 18
Figure.2.3 Rainfall variability measured by the coefficient of variation ......................... 20
Figure.2.4 Trends of temperature in Ethiopia .................................................................. 21
Figure.2.5 Relative contribution of individual GHG to aggregated emission in 1994 .... 23
Figure.2.6 Total GHG emission by sector in 1994 .......................................................... 24
Fig. 3.1 Location map of the study area ............................................................................ 34
Figure. 4.1 Sex proportion of the households .................................................................. 41
Figure.4.2 Percentage distribution of Age of the Households ......................................... 42
Figure.4.3 Marital status of households ........................................................................... 42
Figure.4.4 Percentage distribution of Educational Background of the Households ........ 43
Figure. 4.5 Percentage distribution of farm land holding size in hector of the house
holds ................................................................................................................................ 44
Figure 4.6 Percentage Distribution of Respondents perception on Causes of CVC ........ 45
Figure 4.7 Percentage distribution of the households’ perception of indicators of CVC 47
Figure 4.8 Percentage distribution of the households’ perception temporal
distribution of rainfall ....................................................................................................... 48
Figure 4.9 Percentage distribution of the households’ perception on water
volume and water cycle ..................................................................................................... 49
Figure 4.10 Percentage distribution of the households’ perception on the indicators of
CVC ................................................................................................................................ 50
Figure 4.11 Respondents’ perception of CVC livelihood adaptation strategies ............... 51
Figure 4.12 Percentage distribution of the households’ sources of information ............. 52
Figure 4.13 Frequency respondents’ perception about temperature changes ................. 53
Figure 4.14 Trends of annual average temperature distribution ....................................... 54
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