Alliance politics, decision-makers and the formation of military coalitions

264 Pages·2015·2.6 MB·English

by  Brendon Gittins

Alliance politics, decision-makers and the formation
of military coalitions: Australian, British and Canadian
(non) participation in the 2003 Iraq War

Brendon James Gittins

Submitted in total fulfilment of the requirements of the degree of Doctor
of Philosophy

July 2015

School of Social and Political Sciences
The University of Melbourne

Produced on archival quality paper

Abstract
Much has been written about the 2003 Iraq War. However, there are only a very small
number of studies that compare the responses of Australia, Canada and the United
Kingdom (UK) to this conflict. In order to contribute to our understanding of the Iraq War,
this thesis utilises an integrative approach that considers the roles of alliance factors,
international law, domestic politics and decision-makers to address my central research
question: why did the Canadian government choose not to deploy military forces to the
2003 Iraq War, while the UK and Australia – two states that share many similarities with
Canada – both participated? I argue that alliance factors predisposed the Australian and
British governments towards participation. Australia was strategically dependent on the
United States (US) given its position in a culturally divergent region, and has a history of
supporting the US in its various post-Second World War military coalitions. The UK was
not dependent on the US for its own security, but rather, depended on the influence that it
was perceived to gain both in the US and internationally as a result of its status as a loyal
ally. In contrast, I posit that Canada’s secure location and generous security arrangements
with the US served to reduce its dependence on the US. This resulted in domestic politics
having a greater salience in Canadian decision-making, and inclined the Canadian
government toward non-participation in the Iraq War.
Although I argue that alliance factors predisposed each government to their
eventual course of action regarding the 2003 Iraq War, my integrative approach also
demonstrates the important role played by decision-makers. I posit that the ‘leadership
styles’ of the Australian, Canadian and British political leaders served to shape the manner
in which they each balanced alliance and political incentives. The British prime minister,
Tony Blair, was a ‘goal-driven’ leader prepared to sacrifice domestic politics in the name
of his overarching alliance and security goals. In contrast, the prime minister of Australia,
John Howard, and the prime minister of Canada, Jean Chrétien, were ‘contextually
sensitive’ leaders. As a result, Howard sought to advance his primary goal of alliance
maintenance, while minimising domestic political damage. Meanwhile, Chrétien focused
on maintaining domestic political support, while also seeking to limit the short-term
damage to the US-Canada alliance relationship resulting from Canadian non-participation.
i
As policymaking is inherently complex, efforts to develop simple models of
foreign policy decision-making fail to accurately describe the dynamics involved. This
thesis demonstrates the importance of both alliance and decision-making factors in
coalition formation. In doing so, this thesis also demonstrates the utility of an integrative
approach to the study of international relations.

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Declaration

This is to certify that:
The thesis comprises only my original work towards the PhD;
Due acknowledgement has been made in the text to all other material used;
The thesis is fewer than 100 000 words in length, exclusive of tables, maps,
bibliographies and appendices.

Brendon James Gittins

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Acknowledgements
The process of writing a PhD thesis is a long one, and sees students incur a great number
of debts to a great many people. Firstly, I am deeply indebted to the three supervisors with
whom I have had the honour of working these last four and a half years. My thanks to
Associate Professor Derek McDougall, a source of reassurance and wise counsel, who has
consistently helped me to improve this thesis with his thoughtful comments on my endless
drafts. Also, my sincerest thanks to Dr Avery Poole, who was willing to supervise my
thesis despite her already full schedule; my writing has benefited greatly as a result of
working with her this year. Last but not least, my thanks to Dr David Mickler, who guided
me with patience and support through the first three years of my candidature before he
returned to Western Australia to undertake an academic position at the University of
Western Australia. I must also thank the three supervisory panel chairs who have assisted
me through my studies. Thanks to Professor Ralph Pettman, who helped me to focus my
research topic, Associate Professor John Fitzgerald, for his constant support and thoughtful
input, and Dr Julie Evans for her insightful comments on the project. Finally, thanks to
Jude Irwin for proofreading a complete draft of the thesis.
To all my friends in both Queensland and Melbourne, thank you for understanding
my frequent absences and lack of communication. Thank you also for providing much
needed support and friendship throughout my studies. I also owe so much to my dear
family. I sincerely thank my mother and father, and my brother, Ryan, without whose
support I could not have undertaken this journey. Finally, this thesis would have been
impossible without the constant love and support of my beautiful wife, Xiaoting Ge. I
dedicate this thesis to her. Any errors remaining are my own.

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Table of contents

Abstract ................................................................................................................................. i
Declaration .......................................................................................................................... iii
Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................. iv
Table of contents .................................................................................................................. v
List of acronyms and abbreviations ................................................................................ viii
List of figures ....................................................................................................................... x

Chapter 1
Alliance and coalition dynamics ......................................................................................... 1
Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 1
Research question and thesis proposition .............................................................................. 2
Sub-questions ........................................................................................................................ 3
Methodology .......................................................................................................................... 3
Sources and data .................................................................................................................... 7
Significance ......................................................................................................................... 10
Thesis outline ....................................................................................................................... 11
The background to the Iraq War .......................................................................................... 12

Chapter 2
Alliance politics, international law and decision-making factors ................................. 16
Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 16
Theoretical perspectives on coalition formation ................................................................. 17
Alliance and coalition literature .......................................................................................... 19
Alliance maintenance and coalition formation .................................................................... 24
Ideational influences upon alliance maintenance ................................................................ 29
International law and the United Nations ............................................................................ 30
Identity ................................................................................................................................. 31
Domestic politics and alliance maintenance ........................................................................ 33
Agency and alliances ........................................................................................................... 37
‘Predominant’ leaders .......................................................................................................... 38
Small group dynamics and organisational factors ............................................................... 40
Conclusion ........................................................................................................................... 41

Chapter 3
The threat posed by Iraq .................................................................................................. 43
Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 43
The threat posed by Iraq to Australia .................................................................................. 44
The threat posed by Iraq to the UK ..................................................................................... 52
The threat posed by Iraq to Canada ..................................................................................... 56
Conclusion ........................................................................................................................... 61

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Chapter 4
The role of ideas in shaping state behaviour ................................................................... 63
Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 63
International law and the use of military force .................................................................... 64
The Australian government’s perception of international law ............................................ 64
The British government’s perception of international law .................................................. 70
The Canadian government’s perception of international law .............................................. 75
The Iraq War and human rights narratives .......................................................................... 80
The Australian response to human rights abuses in Iraq ..................................................... 81
The British government’s response to human rights abuses in Iraq .................................... 82
The Canadian government’s response to human rights abuses in Iraq................................ 85
Conclusion ........................................................................................................................... 87

Chapter 5
Alliance dependence and the Iraq War ........................................................................... 89
Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 89
The ANZUS alliance ........................................................................................................... 91
ANZUS as a source of international influence .................................................................... 93
The importance of habits, norms and precedents ................................................................ 94
Economic factors ................................................................................................................. 95
The impact of ANZUS on Australian policymaking from January 2002 to March 2003 ... 99
The US-UK alliance .......................................................................................................... 101
Habits, norms and precedents ............................................................................................ 103
The US-UK alliance and the UK’s declining international influence ............................... 105
Economic factors ............................................................................................................... 106
The impact of the US-UK alliance on British policymaking from January 2002 to March
2003 ................................................................................................................................... 108
The US-Canada alliance .................................................................................................... 109
Economic factors ............................................................................................................... 111
The role of alliance norms in countermanding structural imperatives .............................. 113
The Canada-US alliance and the limits of influence ......................................................... 114
The Impact of Canada-US relations January 2002-March 2003 ....................................... 115
Conclusion ......................................................................................................................... 119

Chapter 6
The public, domestic politics and foreign policy ........................................................... 122
Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 122
Public opinion and domestic politics in Canada ................................................................ 123
Public opinion and domestic politics in Australia ............................................................. 135
Public opinion and domestic politics in the UK ................................................................ 142
Conclusion ......................................................................................................................... 150

Chapter 7
Organisations, cabinets and predominant leaders ....................................................... 152
Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 152
Government organisations ................................................................................................. 154
Australian government organisations ................................................................................ 154
British government organisations ...................................................................................... 157
Canadian government organisations .................................................................................. 162
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Cabinet and advisory meetings .......................................................................................... 165
Cabinet meetings in the Howard government ................................................................... 166
Cabinet meetings in the Blair government ........................................................................ 167
Cabinet meetings in the Chrétien government .................................................................. 170
The predominant leaders ................................................................................................... 172
John Howard ...................................................................................................................... 172
Tony Blair .......................................................................................................................... 175
Jean Chrétien ..................................................................................................................... 178
Conclusion ......................................................................................................................... 180

Chapter 8
Conclusion ........................................................................................................................ 183
Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 183
Findings ............................................................................................................................. 183
Contributions of the thesis ................................................................................................. 189
Policy implications and further research ........................................................................... 190

List of references .............................................................................................................. 194

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List of acronyms and abbreviations
ADF Australian Defence Force
ADQ Action Démocratique du Québec
ANZUS Australia, New Zealand and United States Security Treaty
ASIS Australian Secret Intelligence Service
AUSMIN Australia-United States Ministerial Consultation
BASIC British American Security Information Council
CF Canadian Forces
CSIS Canadian Security Intelligence Service
DFAT Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (Australia)
DFAIT Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade (Canada)
DIO Defence Intelligence Organisation (Australia)
DND Department of National Defence (Canada)
DoD Department of Defence (Australia)
EU European Union
FCO Foreign and Commonwealth Office (United Kingdom)
FTA Free trade agreement
IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency
ICCS International Commission of Control and Supervision
ISAF International Security Assistance Force
JIC Joint Intelligence Committee (United Kingdom)
MCO Major combat operations
MoD Ministry of Defence (United Kingdom)
NAFTA North American Free Trade Agreement
NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization
NDHQ National Defence Headquarters (Canada)
NDP New Democratic Party (Canada)
NORAD North American Aerospace Defense Command
NSCC National Security Committee of Cabinet (Australia)
OEF Operation Enduring Freedom
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