Agriculture and climate beyond 2015: A New Perspective on Future Land Use Patterns

315 Pages·2006·5.05 MB·English

by  Floor Brouwer, Bruce A. McCarl (auth.), Bruce A. McCarl (eds.)

AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE BEYOND 2015
A New Perspective on Future Land Use Patterns
ENVIRONMENT & POLICY
VOLUME 46
The titles published in this series are listed at the end of this volume.
Agriculture and Climate
Beyond 2015
A New Perspective on Future Land Use Patterns
Edited by
Floor Brouwer
LEI, Wageningen UR,
The Hague, The Netherlands
and
Bruce A. McCarl
Department of Agricultural Economics,
Texas A&M University, College Station,
Texas, U.S.A.
A C.I.P. Catalogue record for this book is available from the Library of Congress.
ISBN-10 1-4020-4063-6 (HB)
ISBN-13 978-1-4020-4063-4 (HB)
ISBN-10 1-4020-4368-6 (e-book)
ISBN-13 978-1-4020-4368-0 (e-book)
Published by Springer,
P.O. Box 17, 3300 AA Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
www.springer.com
Logos used with permission from IGBP, IHDP and LUCC
Printed on acid-free paper
All Rights Reserved
© 2006 Springer
No part of this work may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted
in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming, recording
or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher, with the exception
of any material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered
and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work.
Printed in the Netherlands.
Contents

Contributors ix

List of abbreviations xv

Preface xvii

1. Introduction 1
Floor Brouwer and Bruce A. McCarl

Part 1: Setting the scene

2. Agriculture, climate and future land use patterns: potential for a
simulation-based exploration 5
Peter H. Verburg and Jan Peter Lesschen

3. Technology development and climate change as drivers of future
agricultural land use 33
Frank Ewert, Mark Rounsevell, Isabelle Reginster, Marc Metzger
and Rik Leemans

4. Agricultural transitions at dryland and tropical forest margins:
actors, scales and trade-offs 53
Helmut Geist, Eric Lambin, Cheryl Palm and Thomas Tomich

Part 2: Cases on future land use

5. World livestock and crop production systems, land use and
environment between 1970 and 2030 75
Lex Bouwman, Klaas van der Hoek, Gerard van Drecht and
Bas Eickhout

6. Agricultural change and limits to deforestation in Central America 91
David Carr, Alisson Barbieri, William Pan and Heide Iranavi
v
vi Contents

7. Rising food demand, climate change and the use of land and water 109
Hermann Lotze-Campen, Christoph Müller, Alberte Bondeau,
Pascalle Smith and Wolfgang Lucht

8. Population and economic growth as drivers of future land use in India 131
Neeraj Sharma

Part 3: Agricultural mitigation responses

9. Bottom-up methodologies for assessing technical and economic
bioenergy production potential 147
Edward M.W. Smeets, Jinke van Dam, André P.C. Faaij
and Iris M. Lewandowski

10. Changes in consumption patterns: options and impacts of a
transition in protein foods 171
Harry Aiking, Xueqin Zhu, Ekko van Ierland, Frank Willemsen,
Xinyou Yin and Jan Vos

11. Participatory approaches for a transition in agriculture:
the case of the Netherlands 191
Jan Ros, Matthijs Hisschemöller, Floor Brouwer
and Gert-Jan van den Born

12. Options and trade-offs: reducing greenhouse gas emissions
from food production systems 211
Sanderine Nonhebel

13. U.S. agriculture and forestry greenhouse gas emission mitigation
over time 231
Heng-Chi Lee, Bruce A. McCarl, Dhazn Gillig and Brian C. Murray

14. Biosphere greenhouse gas management: transformative change in
Canadian northern Great Plains agriculture 249
Marie Boehm, Henry Janzen, Bob MacGregor and Murray Fulton

Part 4: Policy and social responses

15. Policy efforts to achieve sustainable agriculture: an OECD perspective 265
Wilfrid Legg

16. Institutional and organizational change: biosphere greenhouse 279
gas management in Canadian northern Great Plains agriculture
Murray Fulton, Patricia L. Farnese, Bob MacGregor, Marie Boehm
and Alfons Weersink
Contents vi

17. Performance standards and the farmer: design and application in 291
greenhouse gas mitigation
Patricia L. Farnese

Index 305
Contributors

Harry Aiking is Associate Professor, Chemistry & Food, Institute for
Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV
Amsterdam, The Netherlands (e-mail:
x Contributors

P.O. Box 1, 3720, BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands (e-mail:
Contributors xi

Heide Iranavi B.A., is a Fullbright Scholar in Jordan, 2005 University of North
Carolina, Chapel Hill, USA (e-mail: