Table Of ContentAFTER THE SHEIKHS
‘It is almost forty years since the publication of Fred Halliday’s landmark book Arabia With-
out Sultans. Now, in the wake of the Arab spring, another young British academic has written
an important account of prospects for the Gulf region … Orientalist special pleading doesn’t
get a look in. This is an unsentimental story of hard-nosed political calculation, conspicuous
consumption, opaque budgets and sovereign wealth funds.’
Ian Black, The Guardian
‘What is the secret of the Gulf monarchies’ survival? There are numerous reasons. The support
of Western powers, oil wealth and an effective secret police are among them. But in this excep-
tionally argued book, Christopher Davidson concentrates on the prime reason: the Gulf mon-
archies enjoy considerable legitimacy from their populations. … This fine-tuned monarchical
resilience, Davidson argues, cannot be sustained for much longer. Immense internal pressures
are building up and the pressure-cooker is about to explode. Davidson marshals an impressive
array of evidence.’
Ziauddin Sardar, The Independent
‘Britain and the US are uncritical friends of the hereditary Gulf rulers; but what if they are
likely to collapse, as Christopher Davidson convincingly predicts? It would be folly to ignore
the writing on the wall for these insatiably greedy elites; Davidson’s warning should be on the
desk of every Foreign Office Minister.’
Lord Avebury, vice-chair of the All-Party Parliamentary Human Rights Group
‘Davidson argues that the Gulf regimes will be gone—at least in their current form—within
the next two to five years. This audacious prediction should not be lightly dismissed. The
dynamics he analyses and the facts he has gathered, based on long-term observation of the
region, provide tantalising clues that profound change may indeed be at close hand.’
Dirk Vandewalle, Associate Professor of Government, Dartmouth College
‘After the Sheikhs is a book of tremendous value. It applies a rigorously constructed theoretical
framework to a rich array of empirical data in order to assess the long-term survivability of
some of the world’s last authoritarian holdouts. For anyone interested in understanding the
post-2011 Middle East, this is essential reading.’
Mehran Kamrava, Director of the Center for International and
Regional Studies, Georgetown University, Qatar
‘At a time when the Gulf Kingdoms arrogantly boast of having avoided the fate of their neigh-
bours in the revolutions of the Arab Spring, this book provides a convincing counter-narra-
tive and a powerful warning to rulers who treat their countries as personal fiefdoms.’
Waleed Abu Alkair, head of Monitor of Human Rights in Saudi Arabia
‘This book must be read by every Western policymaker betting on the status quo in the GCC,
by every pro-democracy activist struggling to realise Davidson’s predicted outcome, and by
every GCC citizen dreaming of a better future but made to fear the worst if change was to
come.’
Ala’a Shehabi, writer, pro-democracy activist, founder, Bahrain Watch
CHRISTOPHER M. DAVIDSON
AFTER THE SHEIKHS
The Coming Collapse
of the Gulf Monarchies
A
A
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recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of Oxford University Press.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Davidson, Christopher M. (Christopher Michael)
After the sheikhs : the coming collapse of the gulf monarchies / Christopher Davidson.
p. cm.
Summary: “Noted Gulf expert Christopher Davidson contends that the collapse of these
kings, emirs, and sultans is going to happen, and was always going to”
— Provided by publisher.
ISBN 978-0-19-933064-5 (hardback)
1. Persian Gulf States—Politics and government—21st century. 2. Saudi Arabia—Politics
and government—21st century. 3. Monarchy—Persian Gulf States. 4. Monarchy—Saudi
Arabia. I. Title.
JQ1840.D38 2013
320.9536—dc23
2013014438
1 3 5 7 9 8 6 4 2
Printed in India
on Acid-Free Paper
CONTENTS
Preface and Acknowledgements vii
Acronyms ix
Introduction 1
The revolutions that never came 3
Explaining monarchical survival 5
Further explanations 12
1. State Formation and Economic Development 17
Origins of the Gulf monarchies 18
Britain and the early order 22
Independence and state formation 26
Economic development trajectories 40
2. Explaining Survival—Domestic Matters 49
Distributing wealth 50
National elites 58
Co-opting expatriates 62
Cults of personality 66
Heritage and history 70
Co-opting religion 72
Environmental credentials 75
3. Explaining Survival—External Matters 79
Development assistance and international charity 81
Active neutrality: peacekeeping and mediation 85
Soft power in the West: strategic investments and
development assistance 90
v
CONTENTS
Soft power in the West: cultural institutions 95
Soft power in the West: financing universities and
manipulating research 98
Soft power in the East: China and Japan 104
4. Mounting Internal Pressures 111
Resources, populations, and subsidies 112
Voluntary unemployment 117
Squandering wealth 121
Poverty and real unemployment 129
Discrimination, statelessness, and sectarianism 134
Censorship and limiting expression 145
5. Mounting External Pressures 155
Welcoming foreigners and eroding legitimacy 156
Western bases and armaments 163
Antagonising Iran 169
Israel: the unholy alliance 175
Division and disunity 179
Interference and coups d’état 182
6. The Coming Collapse 191
Evolving opposition 193
Modernising forces 196
Countering the Arab Spring: the wrong side of history 201
Bahrain: rage and revolution 205
Oman: protests and promises 209
Saudi Arabia: the cracks appearing 211
Kuwait: ‘The People’s Spring’ 216
United Arab Emirates: opposition emerges 220
Qatar: champion or charlatan? 226
Conclusion 229
Postscript 239
Notes 245
Bibliography 281
Index 289
vi
PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I began researching and writing After the Sheikhs: The Coming Collapse of
the Gulf Monarchies in summer 2009 from the confines of my temporary
office at Kyoto University. The original idea for the book, however,
occurred to me back in 2002, when I was still writing up my PhD.
Intrigued by several frank and discreet discussions when living in the
UAE’s northernmost emirate of Ra’s al-Khaimah, I was determined to
burrow beneath the hype and gauge the true extent of loyalty to tradi-
tional monarchies in such states, especially in communities with less
favourable economic circumstances. Since then, much has changed in
the region, with oil price shocks, credit crunches, property bubbles, ter-
ror campaigns, rampant sectarianism, and of course full blown revolu-
tions on its doorstep. Although largely unforeseen and at first difficult to
understand, I found that most of these events and their associated impacts
helped to strengthen my thesis and—more importantly—they strength-
ened my resolve to finish the manuscript as soon as possible. Although
the book was never intended to be a crystal ball it is worth noting that
the original, 2009 version forecast the collapse of most of the Gulf mon-
archies within the next decade. In contrast, this final 2012 version con-
tends that most of these regimes—at least in their present form—will be
gone within the next two to five years.
A very large number of individuals deserve my thanks. Over the past
few years they have provided encouragement, fact-checking, fascinating
pieces of information, and—on occasion—some necessary criticism. These
include academics, human rights and pro-democracy activists, members
of several political societies and religious organisations, government
employees from all six gulf monarchies and neighbouring states, and of
vii
PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
course a small army of concerned citizens and expatriates. I am also very
thankful to the following universities for inviting me to give lectures on
earlier, prototype versions of this book: the London School of Econom-
ics, Oxford, St. Andrews, Yale, Stanford, and Otago. The feedback I
received from such well-informed audiences undoubtedly helped me
shape my thoughts.
Above all I thank my indefatigable publisher, Michael Dwyer, and all
of his team at C. Hurst & Co.
viii
ACRONYMS
ADBIC Abu Dhabi Basic Industries Corporation
ADEC Abu Dhabi Executive Council
ADFAD Abu Dhabi Fund for Arab Development
ADFD Abu Dhabi Fund for Development
ADFEC Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company
ADIA Abu Dhabi Investment Authority
ADNCC Abu Dhabi National Consultative Council
ADNOC Abu Dhabi National Oil Company
AQAP Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula
Aramco Arabian American Oil Company
ATP Association of Tennis Professionals
Bapco Bahrain Petroleum Company
BCHR Bahrain Centre for Human Rights
CENTCOM US Central Command
CEO chief executive office
CIA Central Intelligence Agency (of the US)
CNPC China National Petroleum Corporation
COM Council of Ministers (of the UAE)
DIC Dubai International Capital
DIFC Dubai International Financial Centre
DLF Dhofar Liberation Front
DPW Dubai Ports World
EAD Environmental Agency Abu Dhabi
ECHR Emirates Centre for Human Rights
EDB Economic Development Board (of Bahrain)
EMAL Emirates Aluminium
ix
