Advances in Streamflow Forecasting: From Traditional to Modern Approaches

386 Pages·2021·27.523 MB·English

by  Priyanka Sharma, Deepesh Machiwal

Advances in Streamflow
Forecasting
From Traditional to Modern Approaches
Edited by
Priyanka Sharma
Deepesh Machiwal
Elsevier
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This book is dedicated to my parents
Sudha Sharma and Pramod Sharma, my
husband Basant Mishra, and son
Advit Mishra.
d
Priyanka Sharma
This book is dedicated to my loving
family, sisters, brother, parents Devki
Machiwal and Durga Prasad Machiwal,
my wife Savita, and daughter Mahi.
d
Deepesh Machiwal
Contributors
KevinO.Achieng,Department ofCivilandArchitectural Engineering, Universityof
Wyoming, Laramie, WY, United States; Department of Crop & Soil Sciences,
UniversityofGeorgia,Athens,GA,UnitedStates
Jan F. Adamowski, Department of Bioresource Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural
and EnvironmentalScience,McGill University,Montreal,QC,Canada
Sheikh Hefzul Bari, Department of Civil Engineering, Leading University, Sylhet,
Bangladesh
LuChen,SchoolofCivilandHydraulicEngineering,HuazhongUniversityofScience
and Technology,Wuhan,Hubei,China
Nastaran Chitsaz, National Centre for Groundwater Research and Training, College of
ScienceandEngineering,FlindersUniversity,BedfordPark,SouthAustralia,Australia
Ali Danandeh Mehr, Department of Civil Engineering, Antalya Bilim University,
Antalya, Turkey
RavineshC.Deo,SchoolofAgriculturalComputationalandEnvironmentalSciences,
InternationalCentreofAppliedClimateSciences(ICACS),UniversityofSouthern
Queensland, Springfield,QLD,Australia
Farshad Fathian, Department of Water Science and Engineering, Faculty of Agri-
culture, Vali-e-AsrUniversityofRafsanjan,Rafsanjan,KermanProvince,Iran
Salim Heddam, Faculty of Science, Agronomy Department, Hydraulics Division,
Laboratory ofResearchinBiodiversityInteractionEcosystem andBiotechnology,
University20Aouˆt1955,SkikdaState,Algeria
Md Manjurul Hussain, Institute of Water and Flood Management, Bangladesh
UniversityofEngineeringand Technology,Dhaka,Bangladesh
Saeid Janizadeh, Department of Watershed Management, Faculty of Natural
Resources and Marine Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University, Noor, Mazandaran
Province,Iran
V. Jothiprakash, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology
Bombay,Mumbai,Maharashtra,India
O¨zgur Kişi, Department of Civil Engineering, School of Technology, Ilia State Uni-
versity,Tbilisi,Georgia
Anil Kumar, Department of Soil and Water Conservation Engineering, College of
Technology, G.B. Pant University of Agriculture and Technology, Pantnagar,
Uttarakhand, India
xiii
xiv Contributors
Andreas Langousis, Department of Civil Engineering, School of Engineering, Uni-
versityofPatras, UniversityCampus,Rio,Patras,Greece
DeepeshMachiwal,DivisionofNaturalResources,ICAR-CentralAridZoneResearch
Institute,Jodhpur,Rajasthan,India
Ishtiak Mahmud, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Shahjalal University of
ScienceandTechnology,Sylhet,Bangladesh
Arash Malekian, Department of Reclamation of Arid and Mountainous Regions,
FacultyofNaturalResources, UniversityofTehran,Tehran, Iran
Anurag Malik, Punjab Agricultural University,RegionalResearch Station, Bathinda,
Punjab,India;DepartmentofSoilandWaterConservationEngineering,Collegeof
Technology, G.B. Pant University of Agriculture and Technology, Pantnagar,
Uttarakhand,India
Georgia Papacharalampous, Department of Water Resources and Environmental
Engineering,SchoolofCivilEngineering,NationalTechnicalUniversityofAthens,
IroonPolytechniou5,Zografou, Greece
P.L.Patel,DepartmentofCivilEngineering,SardarVallabhbhaiNationalInstituteof
Technology,Surat,Gujarat,India
Mir Jafar Sadegh Safari, Department of Civil Engineering, Yaşar University, Izmir,
Turkey
Priyank J. Sharma, Department of Civil Engineering, Sardar Vallabhbhai National
InstituteofTechnology,Surat,Gujarat,India
PriyankaSharma,GroundwaterHydrologyDivision,NationalInstituteofHydrology,
Roorkee,Uttarakhand, India
MohammadIstiyakHossainSiddiquee,DataandKnowledgeEngineering,Otto-von-
GuerickeUniversityofMagdeburg,Magdeburg,Saxony-Anhalt,Germany
Vijay P. Singh, Department of Biological & Agricultural Engineering and Zachry
Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Texas A&M University,
CollegeStation, TX,UnitedStates
Doudja Souag-Gamane, Leghyd Laboratory, Universityof Sciences and Technology
HouariBoumediene,BabEzzouar,Algiers,Algeria
Yazid Tikhamarine, Southern Public Works Laboratory (LTPS), Tamanrasset
Antenna,Tamanrasset,Algeria;DepartmentofScienceandTechnology,University
ofTamanrasset, Sersouf,Tamanrasset, Algeria
Mukesh K. Tiwari, Department of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, College of
AgriculturalEngineeringandTechnology,AnandAgriculturalUniversity,Godhra,
Gujarat,India
HristosTyralis,AirForceSupportCommand,HellenicAirForce,ElefsinaAirBase,
Elefsina,Greece
Mehdi Vafakhah, Department of Watershed Management, Faculty of Natural Re-
sources and Marine Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University, Noor, Mazandaran
Province,Iran
About the editors
Dr. Priyanka Sharma is currently working as a Research Associate under
National Hydrology Project in Groundwater Hydrology Division at National
Institute of Hydrology (NIH), Roorkee, India. She completed her B.Tech
(Agricultural Engineering) from Chandra Shekhar Azad University of Agri-
culture and Technology, Kanpur, India, in 2012. She obtained her M.Tech in
2014 and PhD in 2018 from Maharana Pratap University of Agriculture and
Technology (MPUAT), Udaipur. Between March and June 2016, she worked
as a Senior Research Fellow in Department of Soil and Water Engineering,
College of Technology and Engineering (CTAE), MPUAT, Udaipur, India.
From January to June 2018, Priyanka worked as an Assistant Professor at the
SchoolofAgriculture,LovelyProfessionalUniversity,Punjab,India.Shealso
worked as an Assistant Professor in the Faculty of Agriculture Science,
Maharishi Arvind University, Jaipur, Rajasthan, India. Her research interests
include application of statistical and stochastic time series modeling tech-
niques and modern data-driven techniques such as artificial intelligence in
solvingproblemsrelatedtohydrologyandwaterresources.Shehaspublished
sevenresearchpapersinreputed peer-reviewedjournalsandconferences.She
has also contributed three book chapters. She has been conferred with JAE
Best Paper Award and Distinguished Scientist Associate Award for her
outstanding research works in the field of hydrology. She is a life member of
two national professional societies.
Dr. Deepesh Machiwal is a Principal Scientist (Soil and Water Conservation
Engineering) in Division of Natural Resources at ICAR-Central Arid Zone
ResearchInstitute(CAZRI),Jodhpur,India.HeobtainedhisPhDfromIndian
Institute of Technology, Kharagpur, in 2009. He has more than 20 years of
experience in soil and water conservation engineering and groundwater
hydrology.HiscurrentresearchareaismodelinggroundwaterlevelsinIndian
arid region under the changing climate and groundwater demands. Deepesh
servedfrom2005to2011asanAssistantProfessorintheallIndiacoordinated
research project on groundwater utilization at College of Technology and
Engineering, Udaipur, India. He has worked as co-principal investigator in
three externally funded research projects funded by ICARDA, ICAR, and
GovernmentofRajasthan,India.Hehasauthored1book,edited2books,and
contributed 19 book chapters. Deepesh has to his credit 39 papers in inter-
national and 19 papers in national journals, 2 technical reports, 4 extension
xv
xvi Abouttheeditors
bulletins, 16 popular articles, and 33 papers in conference proceedings. His
authoredbookentitled,HydrologicTimeSeriesAnalysis:TheoryandPractice,
has been awarded by Outstanding Book Award for 2012-13 from ISAE, New
Delhi, India. He has been awarded Commendation Medal Award in 2019 by
ISAE, Best Paper Award 2018 by CAZRI, Jodhpur, Achiever Award 2015 by
SADHNA, Himachal Pradesh, Distinguished Service Certificate Award for
2012-2013byISAE,andIEIYoungEngineerAwardin2012bytheInstitution
ofEngineers(India),WestBengal.HeisarecipientofFoundationDayAward
of CAZRI for 2012, 2013, and 2014 and Appreciation Certificate from IEI,
Udaipur, in 2012. Earlier, he was awarded Junior Research Professional
Fellowship by IWMI, Sri Lanka, to participate in International Training and
ResearchProgramonGroundwaterGovernanceinAsia:TheoryandPractice.
He has been conferred with Second Best ComprehensiveGroup Paper Award
by IWMI, Sri Lanka, in 2007. He was also sponsored by FAO, Rome, and
UN-Water for participating in two international workshops at China and
Indonesia.Heisalifememberofeightprofessionalsocietiesandassociations.
Currently, Deepesh is serving as an Advisory Board Member of Ecological
Indicators (Elsevier) and has served as an Associate Editor for Journal of
Agricultural Engineering (ISAE) during 2018-20. He is a reviewer of several
national and international journals related to soil and water engineering and
hydrology.
Foreword
Water-related disasters, also called hydro-hazards, are among the most
frequently occurring natural hazards that threaten people as well as socio-
economic development. The Emergency Events Database of 2019 shows that
globally water-related disasters accounted for about 74% of all natural
disastersbetween2001and2018,andfloodsanddroughts alonecaused more
than 166,000 deaths during the past 20 years, affected over 3 billion people,
and caused an economic damage of almost US$700 billion worldwide.
Unfortunatelythenumberofpeopletobeimpactedandtheeconomiclossesto
be caused are projected to rise in the future due to growing population in
flood-prone areas, climate change, global warming, deforestation, loss of
wetlands, increasing hurricanes, unplanneddevelopment,and rising sea level.
Flood hazards may be mitigated through flood preparedness involving the
development of flood risk management systems which depend on streamflow
modeling and forecasting.
Reliable and accurate streamflow forecasting is essential for the optimal
planning and management of water resources systems. A variety of models,
ranging from knowledge-based physical models to data-driven empirical
models,havebeenproposedovertheyearstoderivestreamflowforecasts.The
past few decades have witnessed a proliferation in data-driven models for
streamflow forecasting. This past decade, in particular, has seen a precipitous
shiftfromtraditionalmodelsemployingstand-alonedata-driventechniquesto
advancedhybridmodelsintegratingmorethanonedata-driventechniquewith
some sort of a data preprocessing technique to improve forecast accuracy.
Eventheclassical autoregressivemovingaverage(ARMA)modelshavebeen
advancedintononlinearautoregressivewithexogenousinput(NARX)models,
self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) models, generalized autore-
gressivemodelswithconditionalheteroscedasticity(GARCH),andhybridized
SETAR-GARCH models to improve the accuracy of streamflow forecasting.
Details about such advances are normally not found in a single source.
Furthermore, several advances have been made in artificial intelligence tech-
niques, such as artificial neural networks, support vector machines, support
vectorregression,andgeneticprogrammingwithbothstand-aloneandhybrid
approaches that have improved model performance and have provided better
streamflow forecasts. Therefore, this book is a valuable contribution to the
field of hydrology where traditional as well as modern models of streamflow
forecasting involving statistical, stochastic, and artificial intelligence
xvii
xviii Foreword
techniques are described along with case studies selected from different parts
oftheworldthatillustratetheirapplicationstoreal-worlddata.Thebookalso
providesanoverviewofmajorapproachesemployedinadvancingstreamflow
forecastingoverhalfacentury.Eachbookchaptermaintainsaproperbalance
oftheoryandpractical demonstrationoftheunderlyingdata-driventechnique
employed for streamflow forecasting. The book provides information on
data-driven tools for streamflow forecasting, which will guide the reader in
selecting a suitable technique to forecast streamflow under a given set of
conditions. Chapter contributors are active researchers who have been
involved in advancing streamflow forecasting. The book editors deserve
applause for bringing out this valuable book.
Vijay P. Singh, P.D., D.S., P.E., P.H., Hon. D. WRE
University Distinguished Professor
Regents Professor
Caroline and William N. Lehrer Distinguished Chair
in Water Engineering
Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering and
Zachry Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,
Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, United States
Preface
Streamflow forecastingplays a key roleinwater resources planning andman-
agementincludingirrigatedagriculture,hydropowerproduction,anddestructive
naturaldisasters.Accurateforecastingofstreamflowisachallengingtaskandat
thesametimeaverycomplexprocess.Therefore,researchersfromalloverthe
world have proposed many models to forecast streamflow with improved
performance. Until now, a lot of research has been conducted to address this
complex process by using many data-driven models. Accurate streamflow
forecastinghasreceivedmuchattentionoverthelasttwodecades.Since2010,
efforts of researchers in increasing forecasting accuracy of streamflow have
gained a considerable momentum for long-term water resources planning and
management. Before 2000s, academicians and researchers mainly focused on
streamflow forecasting by using traditional methods such as statistical and
stochastic time series modeling methods. However, in 2010s, focus of the
researchers has been shifted toward the advances in streamflow forecasting
methodsbyadoptingnewstand-alonedata-drivenapproachessuchasartificial
intelligencetechniquesandhybriddata-drivenapproacheswheremorethanone
technique,preferablyartificialintelligencetechnique,isamalgamatedwithother
methods.Furthermore,itislearnedthattherecentadvancesmadeinthesubject
of streamflow forecasting are mostly confined up to research articles where
detailedproceduresofapplyingthemodernmethodsforstreamflowforecasting
arenotadequatelydealt.Itisrevealedfromtheliteraturethatabookdescribing
thestep-by-stepproceduresoftheadvanceddata-drivenmodelsalongwiththeir
casestudiesinstreamflowforecastingisnotavailable.Therefore,thisbookisan
attempt to abridge this gap by providing theoretical descriptions, systematic
methodologies,andpracticaldemonstrationofthetraditionalandmoderntools
andtechniquesadoptedforstreamflowforecastingovertheyears.Thus,thebook
isveryusefulforthereaderstogainaninsightaboutthedevelopmentsmadein
the field of the streamflow forecasting. Furthermore, this book deals with
“theory-to-practice” approach where procedures for applying the different
methodsareexplainedinconcreteandorderedstepsthatmaybeeasilyfollowed
bythereadersiftheywishtoapplyanyofthemethodsintheirstudies.Itmaybe
difficultforthereaderstofindallsuchdetailsabouttheadvancedmethodsata
singlesourceintheliterature.Moreover,themethodsdetailedinthisbookmay
beusefulforthereaderstomakeforecastofavariableinanysubjectincluding
hydrologyandwaterresourcesengineering.
xix