Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change (America's Climate Choices)

293 Pages·2010·16.99 MB·English

by  National Research Council, America's Climate Choices: Panel on Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change

http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12783.html
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Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change

America's Climate Choices: Panel on Adapting to the

Impacts of Climate Change; National Research Council

ISBN: 0-309-14592-9, 292 pages, 7 x 10, (2010)

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Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12783.html
Adapting to the Impacts
of Climate Change
America’s Climate Choices:
Panel on Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
Division on Earth and Life Studies
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12783.html
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of
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This study was supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under
contract number DG133R08CQ0062. Any opinions, fndings, conclusions, or recommendations
expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily refect the views of
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Copyright 2010 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12783.html
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonproft, self-perpetuating society of distin-
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Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12783.html
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12783.html
PANEL ON ADAPTINg TO THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANgE
KATHARINE L. JACObS* (Chair—through January 3, 2010), University of Arizona,
Tucson
THOMAS J. WILbANKS (Chair), Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Tennessee
bRuCE P. bAugHMAN, IEM, Inc., Alabaster, Alabama
ROgER N. bEACHy,* Donald Danforth Plant Science Center, St. Louis, Missouri
gEORgES C. bENJAMIN, American Public Health Association, Washington, D.C.
JAMES L. buIzER, Arizona State University, Tempe
F. STuART CHAPIN III, University of Alaska, Fairbanks
W. PETER CHERRy, Science Applications International Corporation, Ann Arbor,
Michigan
bRAxTON DAvIS, South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control,
Charleston
KRISTIE L. EbI, IPCC Technical Support Unit WGII, Stanford, California
JEREMy HARRIS, Sustainable Cities Institute, Honolulu, Hawaii
RObERT W. KATES, Independent Scholar, Bangor, Maine
HOWARD C. KuNREuTHER, University of Pennsylvania Wharton School of Business,
Philadelphia
LINDA O. MEARNS, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
PHILIP MOTE, Oregon State University, Corvallis
ANDREW A. ROSENbERg, Conservation International, Arlington, Virginia
HENRy g. SCHWARTz, JR., Jacobs Civil (retired), St. Louis, Missouri
JOEL b. SMITH, Stratus Consulting, Inc., Boulder, Colorado
gARy W. yOHE, Wesleyan University, Middletown, Connecticut
NRC Staff
CLAuDIA MENgELT, Study Director
MICHAEL CRAgHAN, Program Offcer
KARA LANEy, Associate Program Offcer
JOSEPH CASOLA, Postdoctoral Fellow
LAuREN M. bROWN, Research Associate
AMANDA PuRCELL, Senior Program Assistant
* Asterisks denote members who resigned during the study process.

Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12783.html
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12783.html
Foreword: About America’s
Climate Choices
onvened by the National Research Council in response to a request from
Congress (P.L. 110-161), America’s Climate Choices is a suite of fve coordinated
Cactivities designed to study the serious and sweeping issues associated with
global climate change, including the science and technology challenges involved, and
to provide advice on the most effective steps and most promising strategies that can
be taken to respond.
The Committee on America’s Climate Choices is responsible for providing overall
direction, coordination, and integration of the America’s Climate Choices suite of activi-
ties and ensuring that these activities provide well-supported, action-oriented, and
useful advice to the nation. The committee convened a Summit on America’s Climate
Choices on March 30–31, 2009, to help frame the study, and provide an opportunity for
high-level participation and input on key issues. The committee is also charged with
writing a fnal report that builds on four panel reports and other sources to answer the
following four overarching questions:
• What short-term actions can be taken to respond effectively to climate
change?
• What promising long-term strategies, investments, and opportunities could be
pursued to respond to climate change?
• What are the major scientifc and technological advances needed to better
understand and respond to climate change?
• What are the major impediments (e.g., practical, institutional, economic, ethi-
cal, intergenerational, etc.) to responding effectively to climate change, and
what can be done to overcome these impediments?
The Panel on Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change was charged to
describe, analyze, and assess strategies for reducing the net future human infuence
on climate. The panel’s report focuses on actions to reduce domestic greenhouse gas
emissions and other human drivers of climate change, such as changes in land use, but
also considers the international dimensions of climate stabilization.
The Panel on Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change was charged to describe,
analyze, and assess actions and strategies to reduce vulnerability, increase adaptive
ii
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12783.html
F O R E W O R D
capacity, improve resiliency, and promote successful adaptation to climate change in
different regions, sectors, systems, and populations. This report draws on a wide range
of sources and case studies to identify lessons learned from past experiences, promis-
ing current approaches, and potential new directions.
The Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change was charged to provide a
concise overview of past, present, and future climate change, including its causes and
its impacts, and to recommend steps to advance our current understanding, including
new observations, research programs, next-generation models, and the physical and
human assets needed to support these and other activities. The panel’s report focuses
on the scientifc advances needed both to improve our understanding of the intergrated
human-climate system and to devise more effective responses to climate change.
The Panel on Informing Effective Decisions and Actions Related to Climate Change
was charged to describe and assess different activities, products, strategies, and tools
for informing decision makers about climate change and helping them plan and ex-
ecute effective, integrated responses. The panel’s report describes the different types
of climate change-related decisions and actions being taken at various levels and in
different sectors and regions; it develops a framework, tools, and practical advice for
ensuring that the best available technical knowledge about climate change is used to
inform these decisions and actions.
America’s Climate Choices builds on an extensive foundation of previous and ongoing
work, including National Research Council reports, assessments from other national
and international organizations, the current scientifc literature, climate action plans
by various entities, and other sources. More than a dozen boards and standing com-
mittees of the National Research Council were involved in developing the study, and
many additional groups and individuals provided additional input during the study
process. Outside viewpoints were also obtained via public events and workshops
(including the Summit), invited presentations at committee and panel meetings, and
comments and questions received through the study website, http://americasclimate­
choices.org.
Collectively, the America’s Climate Choices suite of activities involves more than 90
volunteers from a range of communities including academia, various levels of govern-
ment, business and industry, other nongovernmental organizations, and the interna-
tional community. Responsibility for the fnal content of each report rests solely with the
authoring panel and the National Research Council. However, the development of each
report included input from and interactions with members of all fve study groups; the
membership of each group is listed in Appendix A.
iii
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12783.html

Preface
his report presents the fndings of the Committee on Adapting to the Impacts
of Climate Change, one of four concurrent panel efforts within the America’s
TClimate Choices committee study. It was our assignment to identify the opportu-
nities and challenges associated with adaptation, to identify and evaluate the avail-
able options and lessons learned within the United States and elsewhere, and to make
recommendations regarding U.S. adaptation efforts.
Adapting to climate change is a relatively new topic for U.S. citizens, who have only
recently become fully aware of the implications of changes in the Earth system that
will result from having more heat trapped in the oceans and the atmosphere. In recent
years, some states, cities, and sectors have begun to make plans to adapt to current
and anticipated changes in the climate system. Some “early adopters” have focused
primarily on limiting greenhouse gases (GHGs). Others, however, are also addressing
ways to limit impacts of the anticipated changes, recognizing that regardless of efforts
to limit emissions, adaptation is required now and will become even more important
in the coming decades. Although planning for adaptation is still in its infancy, there is
a groundswell of interest in moving forward quickly to avoid future impacts of climate
change.
Advising the nation on how to prepare for the impacts of climate change is especially
daunting in a country with so much geographic and economic diversity and so many
private- and public-sector decision makers. The challenges associated with multiple
regions, sectors, scales, and time frames have made this a diffcult assignment, and in
the end, our panel has concluded that is not possible to provide a list of actions to be
taken now to adapt in each region and sector. As has been noted by many researchers
and practitioners, adaptation is fundamentally implemented at local and regional lev-
els and needs to consider the socioeconomic and political factors. Priorities regarding
“what to do” need to be set in decision contexts relative to other important priorities
faced by society and resource managers. Vulnerability associated with climate change
is based on underlying social and ecological stresses, and these stresses tend to vary
dramatically from place to place. Degrees of vulnerability are not directly connected
to wealth, but certainly a lack of fnancial capacity is highly correlated with a reduced
number of options for adaptation. In this report, our panel emphasizes that adaptation
decisions need to be made in the context of promoting long-term sustainability ob-
ix
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.