Table Of ContentAdapting to Climate Change:
An International Perspective
Springer
New York
Berlin
Heidelberg
Barcelona
Budapest
Hong Kong
London
Milan
Paris
Santa Clara
Singapore
Tokyo
Joel B. Smith Neeloo Bhatti Gennady V. Menzhulin
Ron Benioff Max Campos Bubu Jallow
Frank Rijsberman Mikhail I. Budyko R.K. Dixon
EDITORS
Adapting to Climate Change:
An International Perspective
Springer
Joel B. Smith BubuJallow
Hagler Bailly Consulting, Inc. Department of Water Resources
Boulder, CO 80306 Banjul
USA The Gambia
Neeloo Bhatti Frank Rijsberman
Argonne National Laboratory Resource Analysis
Argonne, IL 60439 Delft
USA The Netherlands
Gennady Menzhulin Mikhail I. Budyko
State Hydrological Institute State Hydrological Institute
St. Petersburg St. Petersburg
Russian Federation Russian Federation
Ron Benioff R.K. Dixon
U.S. Country Studies Program U.S. Country Studies Program
Washington, DC 20585 Washington, DC 20585
USA USA
Max Campos
Central American Project on Climate
Change
San Jose
Costa Rica
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ISBN-13:978-1-4613-8473-1 e-ISBN-13:978-1-4613-8471-7 SPIN 10522981
DOl: 10.1007/978-1-4613-8471-7
Introduction
Global climate change is one of the most important environmental issues facing
the world today. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(FCCC) acknowledges the potential for global climate change to have major
effects on the world economy. The work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Cli
mate Change (lPCC) is focused on evaluating the scientific data on climate
change and analyzing the potential responses to it.
One of the primary issues in the global climate change debate is how to adapt
to any change that might occur. The process ofidentifying adaptation measures
and evaluating their effectiveness is the focus of this book.
In dealing with climate change adaptation, the sequence of events in conduct
ing these types of analyses can be generalized as follows:
• Develop scenarios for the possible range of climate change,
• Assess the vulnerability of various sectors of the national economy and
infrastructure to climate change, and
• Identify and evaluate measures in each sector to adapt to the climate change
It is this third step that is the subject of this book. In presenting this material,
Chapter 1 gives an overview of the concept of climate change adaptation and the
general principles guiding the conduct of analyses in this area. Chapters 2-7 give
the results of evaluating climate change adaptation options in the agriculture,
water resources, coastal resources, forest and ecosystems, fisheries, and human
settlements sectors. While these do not represent all sectors that will need to con
sider adaptive measures, they do reflect those which are considered to be among
the most sensitive to global climate change.
It will be evident from the work presented here that the state-of-the-art of cli
mate change adaptation assessment is evolving. The wide range of uncertainty in
the magnitude of climate change itself makes the adaptation assessments even
more difficult to carry out. Nevertheless, it is clear that this work can lay the
foundation for countries to develop appropriate and cost-effective steps to adapt
to climate change
On May 22-25,1995, more than 100 scientists, engineers, and policy analysts
representing 30 nations convened in St. Petersburg, Russian Federation, to dis
cuss the methodologies for assessing adaptation to climate change and to share
the results of country studies designed to determine the effectiveness of various
vi Introduction
approaches. The International Conference on Climate Change Adaptation As
sessments, the first international conference to deal exclusively with issue, was
chaired by S. Avdjushin (Russian Federation), R. Dixon (USA), and F. Rijsber
man (Netherlands). It was cosponsored by the Russian Federal Service for Hy
drometeorology and Environmental Monitoring, the U.S. Country Studies Pro
gram, and the Directorate General International Cooperation of the Netherlands
Ministry of Foreign. The papers in this book represent the results of work by the
participating countries in researching climate change adaptation. The conference
statement, the "St. Petersburg Statement on Adaptation to Climate Change," is
included here.
Conference Summary Statement
Approximately one hundred scientists, engineers, and policy analysts, represent
ing about 30 nations, convened in St. Petersburg, Russia, from May 22-25, 1995,
at the International Conference on Climate Change Adaptation. They discussed
methodologies for assessing climate change adaptation and presented prelimi
nary results of country studies dealing with adaptation to climate change.
The Conference agreed to the following definition of adaptation to climate
change:
Adaptation to climate change includes all adjustments in behavior or
economic structure that reduce the vulnerability of society to changes in
the climate system.
The discussions concerning response policies to climate change in the
framework of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the In
tergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC), and the Conference of the Par
ties (COP) of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
have emphasized stabilizing ambient greenhouse gas concentrations. The con
ference participants urge the Parties to the UNFCCC to consider more fully the
development, evaluation, and costing of adaptation strategies, as well, to prop
erly consider mitigation and adaptation options for all countries.
The conference participants reached the following conclusions in their delib
erations related to adaptation to climate change in general, as well as adaptation
for specific sectors of human activity. These conclusions do not necessarily
reflect views of their governments and are offered to support preparation for
adaptation as recognized in the UNFCCC (Art. 4.1(b».
The IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and
Adaptation were discussed at the conference and found to be a good framework
for country study adaptation assessments. The draft IPCC working group II
report now being circulated for comments, however, does not provide a particu
larly broad overview of adaptation options open to countries. Many more
options, particularly related to anticipatory adaptation, are expected.
The experience that regions and peoples have had in adapting to their current
climatic conditions for centuries can be a rich source of inspiration for develop
ing adaptation response policies. This experience also shows that an increase in
sustainability of economic development is likely to go hand in hand with
viii Conference Summary Statement
increased capabilities to cope with adverse climate conditions and changes
therein. Incorporating this formal (and informal) knowledge and experience into
the adaptation assessment process will require a bottom-up approach that could
benefit from the use of participatory planning procedures.
The preparation for climate change adaptation will require more quantitative
analysis, including identification, analysis, costing, and evaluation of a broad
spectrum of adaptation options related to ecosystems, human health, economy,
and society, as well as support for effective communication of analysis results to
stakeholder groups to increase their social acceptability. Feasible adaptation
schemes must also address current anthropogenic stresses.
The UNFCCC recognizes the importance of adaptation (Art. 3.3.) and calls
on Parties to prepare for adaptation as well as mitigation (Art. 4.I(b». Funding
through the Global Environment Facility (GEF), the interim financial mecha
nism of the UNFCCC, for developing countries that wish to address adaptation
is, to date, limited to planning for adaptation (Stage I) as part of the national com
munications. Nevertheless, it is considered important that countries start to deter
mine the cost of the options to adapt to climate change. The participants urge the
COP of the UNFCCC to broaden the GEF mandate related to adaptation.
Recommendation
The participants in the International Conference on Climate Change Adaptation
call on the Parties to the UNFCCC to pay more attention to the options to adapt
to climate change, while continuing their efforts to stabilize greenhouse gas con
centrations. The participants calion the IPCC to provide more guidance on the
options available to countries to adapt to climate change and to assess their adap
tations.
Acknowledgments
The participants wish to thank the sponsors of the meeting, the Russian Federal
Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring, the U.S. Country
Studies Program, and the Directorate General for International Cooperation of
the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs, for their support in organizing this
important meeting.
Contents
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v
Conference Summary Statement. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. vii
1 Overview
Rapporteur's Statement
Joel B. Smith and Neeloo Bhatti . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
An Overview ofA daptation to Climate Change
M. Toman and R. Bierbaum. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Past Changes in Climate and Societal Adaptations
M.I. Budyko. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 16
Assessing Climate Change Adaptations: The [PCC Guidelines
T .R. Carter. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 27
Adapting to Climate Variations in Developing Regions: A Planning
Framework
Antonio R. Magalhaes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 44
The Growth ofA daptation Capacity: Practice and Policy
Ian Burton ................................................... 55
Using a Decision Matrix to Assess Climate Change Options
Joel B. Smith . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 68
The Potential Costs of Climate Change Adaptation
S. Fankhauser. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 80
Malawi: How Climate Change Adaptation Options Fit within the UNFCCC
National Communication and National Development Plans
Jean Theu, Geoffrey Chavula, and Christine Elias . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 97
2 Agriculture
Rapporteur's Statement
T.R. Carter ................................................... 107
Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change in Egypt
M.H. EI-Shaer, H.M. Eid, C. Rosenzweig, A. Iglesias, and D. Hillel. . . . .. 109
x Contents
Adaptive Measures for Zimbabwe's Agricultural Sector
C.H. Matarira, F.C. Mwamuka, and I.M. Makadho ................... 128
Model-Based Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment
for Wheat Yields in Kazakhstan
S.V. Mizina, I.B. Eserkepova, O.V. Pilifosova, S.A. Dolgih, and
E.F. Gossen .................................................. 148
The Impact of Climate Change on Spring Wheat Yield in Mongolia
and Its Adaptability
Sh. Bayasgalan, B. Bolortsetseg, D. Dagvadorj, and L. Natsagdorj . . . . . .. 164
Some Adaptations of the Tea Plant to Dry Environments
M.A. Wijeratne ............................................... 174
Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Global Food Production:
Options for Adaptive Strategies
M.1. Budyko and G.V. Menzhulin ................................. 188
3 Water Resources
Rapporteur's Statement
Ron Benioff . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 207
Water Resources Adaptation Strategy in an Uncertain Environment
Z. Kaczmarek and 1. Napiork6wski ................................ 211
Anthropogenic Climate Change and Reduction of Water Resources:
Adaptation Issues Related to the Economy in Kazakhstan
V.V. Golubtsov, V.1. Lee, and 1.1. Skotselyas ........................ 225
Adaptation ofH ydropower Generation in Costa Rica and Panama to
Climate Change
M. Campos, A. Sanchez, and D. Espinosa ........................... 232
Managing Water Resources for Climate Change Adaptation
Eugene Z. Stakhiv . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 243
Potential Effects of Sea-Level Rise in the Pearl River Delta Area:
Preliminary Study Results and a Comprehensive Adaptation Strategy
H. Yang ..................................................... 265
4 Coastal Resources
Rapporteur's Statement
Frank Rijsberman. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 279
Sea-Level Rise Along the Lima Coastal Zone, Peru, as a Result of
Global Warming: Environmental Impacts and Mitigation Measures
N. Teves, G. Laos, S. Carrasco, C. San Roman, L. Pizarro,
G. Cardenas, and A. Romero ..................................... 283
