Table Of Contenti
Acid Deposition
Long-Term Trends
Committee on Monitoring and Assessment of Trends in Acid
Deposition
Environmental Studies Board
Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Resources
National Research Council
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1986
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NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20418
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the
National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the Councils of the National Academy
of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of
the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard
for appropriate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures
approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sci-
ences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was established by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916
to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of further-
ing knowledge and of advising the federal government. The Council operates in accordance with
general policies determined by the Academy under the authority of its congressional charter of
1863, which establishes the Academy as a private, nonprofit, self-governing membership corpora-
tion. The Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of
Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in the conduct of their services to the govern-
ment, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. It is administered jointly by both
Academies and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Engineering and the Institute of
Medicine were established in 1964 and 1970, respectively, under the charter of the National
Academy of Sciences.
Although the information in this publication has been funded in part by the U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency under Assistance Agreement No. CR-811626-01-0 and the U.S. Geological Sur-
vey under Grant No. 14-08-0001-G-954 to the National Academy of Sciences, it may not necessar-
ily reflect the views of these agencies, and no official endorsement should be inferred.
Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 86-70311
International Standard Book Number 0-309-03647-X
Printed in the United States of America
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iii
Committee On Monitoring And Assessment Of Trends In
Acid Deposition
JAMES H. GIBSON, Colorado State University, Chairman
ANDERS W. ANDREN, University of Wisconsin
RAYMOND S. BRADLEY, University of Massachusetts
DONALD F. CHARLES, Indiana University
TERRY A. HAINES, University of Maine
RUDOLF B. HUSAR, Washington University
ARTHUR H. JOHNSON, University of Pennsylvania
JAMES R. KRAMER, McMaster University
SAMUEL B. MCLAUGHLIN, Oak Ridge National Laboratory
STEPHEN A. NORTON, University of Maine
GARY OEHLERT, University of Minnesota
GARY J. STENSLAND, Illinois State Water Survey
JOHN TRIJONIS, Santa Fe Research Corporation
DOUGLAS M. WHELPDALE, Atmospheric Environment Service, Canada
Staff
WILLIAM M. STIGLIANI, Staff Officer
JOYCE E. FOWLER, Administrative Secretary
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iv
Environmental Studies Board
STANLEY I. AUERBACH, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Chairman
WILLIAM E. COOPER, Michigan State University J.
CLARENCE DAVIES, The Conservation Foundation
JOHN W. FARRINGTON, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
BENJAMIN G. FERRIS, JR., Harvard School of Public Health
GEORGE M. HIDY, Desert Research Institute
WILLIAM G. HUNTER, University of Wisconsin
RAYMOND C. LOEHR, University of Texas
ROGER A. MINEAR, University of Illinois
PHILIP A. PALMER, E.I. DuPont de Nemours & Company
CLIFFORD RUSSELL, Vanderbilt University
WILLIAM H. RODGERS, University of Washington
Staff
MYRON F. UMAN, Staff Director
WILLIAM M. STIGLIANI, Staff Officer
RUTH S. DEFRIES, Staff Officer
JANET A. STOLL, Staff Assistant
JOYCE E. FOWLER, Administrative Secretary
CAROLYN STEWART, Administrative Secretary
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v
Commission On Physical Sciences, Mathematics, And
Resources
HERBERT FRIEDMAN, National Research Council, Chairman
CLARENCE R. ALLEN, California Institute of Technology
THOMAS D. BARROW, Standard Oil Company, Ohio (retired)
ELKAN R. BLOUT, Harvard Medical School
BERNARD F. BURKE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
GEORGE F. CARRIER, Harvard University
CHARLES L. DRAKE, Dartmouth College
MILDRED S. DRESSELHAUS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
JOSEPH L. FISHER, Office of the Governor, Commonwealth of Virginia
JAMES C. FLETCHER, University of Pittsburgh
WILLIAM A. FOWLER, California Institute of Technology
GERHART FRIEDLANDER, Brookhaven National Laboratory
EDWARD D. GOLDBERG, Scripps Institution of Oceanography
MARY L. GOOD, Signal Research Center
J. ROSS MACDONALD, University of North Carolina
THOMAS F. MALONE, Saint Joseph College
CHARLES J. MANKIN, Oklahoma Geological Survey
PERRY L. MCCARTY, Stanford University
WILLIAM D. PHILLIPS, Mallinckrodt, Inc.
ROBERT E. SIEVERS, University of Colorado
JOHN D. SPENGLER, Harvard School of Public Health
GEORGE W. WETHERILL, Carnegie Institution of Washington
IRVING WLADAWSKY-BERGER, IBM Corporation
Staff
RAPHAEL G. KASPER, Executive Director
LAWRENCE E. MCCRAY, Associate Executive Director
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vi
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PREFACE vii
Preface
Recognizing that deposition of chemical pollutants from the atmosphere
constitutes one of the more significant environmental issues of our time, both
nationally and internationally, the National Research Council has undertaken a
series of studies designed to summarize What is known about this complex
phenomenon and to correct many of the misunderstandings surrounding it. A
central objective of this activity has been to delineate more clearly the role of
our industrial society in contributing to the chemical composition of the
atmosphere as well as the consequences for the environment of the ultimate
return of the pollutants to the Earth's surface.
The first report in the series—Atmosphere-Biosphere Interactions: Toward
a Better Understanding of the Consequences of Fossil Fuel Combustion (1981)
—provides a comprehensive synthesis of our knowledge of the aquatic and
terrestrial effects of the deposition of substances derived from fossil fuel
combustion. The second report—Acid Deposition: Atmospheric Processes in
Eastern North America (1983)—addressed the relationships between average
rates of emission of sulfur oxides and deposition of acid sulfate. The third report—
Acid Deposition: Processes of Lake Acidification (1984)—reviewed alternative
hypotheses regarding geochemical processes in watersheds responding to acid
inputs from the atmosphere. Another report Acid Deposition: Effects on
Geochemical Cycling and Biological Availability of Trace Elements (1985)—
was prepared jointly with the Royal Society of Canada (RSC) and the Mexican
Academy of Scientific Research (AIC). It examined the influences of
atmospheric deposition on biogeochemical processes involving trace elements.
The current report addresses another dimension of the relationships among
emissions, deposition, and environmental effects. If industrial activity is
implicated in atmospheric deposition, then the phenomenon is a relatively
recent one and should be related to changes in the levels and kinds of such
activity. It is logical, then, to seek historical data or
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PREFACE viii
other reliable information that may be available to assess whether emissions,
deposition, and effects are temporally linked over the period since the beginning
of industrialization (or over a portion of the period), thus suggesting possible
cause-effect relationships. The original suggestion for the study came from the
Tri-Academy Committee on Acid Deposition, a joint activity of the NAS, RSC,
and AIC.
The Committee on Monitoring and Assessment of Trends in Acid
Deposition was organized by the National Research Council to carry out the
study. The committee, comprising experts in the disciplines of atmospheric
chemistry, visibility, environmental monitoring, analytical chemistry, aquatic
chemistry, geochemistry, geology, forestry, fisheries resources, climatology,
and statistics, conducted its work under the auspices of the Council's
Environmental Studies Board. The committee reviewed and summarized the
available literature and data on historical trends in phenomena related to the
emission and deposition of acidic materials. Other chemical substances are
recognized to play an important role in certain effects, but insufficient
information existed to incorporate their assessment in this report.
In the process of reviewing the literature and available data, the committee
found that a number of the potentially informative sets of data that exist had
previously not been analyzed for this purpose. We concluded that in order to
conduct a comprehensive study, it would be necessary for us to obtain and
analyze these data. The report therefore contains not only our review of the
literature but also original analyses of a number of data sets. The analyses were
prepared by members of the committee, often with the assistance of consultants
and colleagues, and are contained in the respective chapters of the report.
Members of the committee and their colleagues who prepared the respective
chapters are identified. The analyses, which commanded considerable
commitments of time and energy from the members, permitted us to assess the
implications of findings for a number of diverse phenomena together, which
greatly enhances the strength of our conclusions.
The committee is indebted to its colleagues and consultants for their
contributions and to the reviewers for their helpful comments and suggestions.
We are particularly indebted to Richard A. Smith and Richard B. Alexander of
the U.S. Geological Survey for their significant contributions to the analysis of
surface water chemistry data and to the preparation of Chapter 7. We wish to
single out for special recognition William M. Stigliani, professional staff officer
for the project; without his tireless work, this complex and difficult project
could not have been
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PREFACE ix
accomplished. Other members of the NRC staff also made important
contributions to the effort, including Myron F. Uman, staff director of the
Environmental Studies Board, who provided administrative leadership; Joyce
Fowler and Carolyn Stewart, project secretaries; Roseanne Price and Joanne B.
Sprehe, editors; and the manuscript processing unit headed by Estelle Miller.
The report required an unusual level of effort and commitment by
members of the committee. It is not possible to commend them adequately for
their enthusiasm, dedication, and cooperation. They were presented with the
difficult challenge and, in performing original analyses, undertook more than
most NRC committees are asked to do. Although assisted by staff, colleagues,
and consultants, and having the benefit of helpful comments from more than 30
anonymous reviewers, the committee bears full responsibility for the report.
Finally, the project would not have been possible without the generous
support of its sponsors, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the U.S.
Geological Survey, and a consortium of private foundations: the Carnegie
Corporation of New York, the Charles E. Culpepper Foundation, Inc., the
William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, the John D. and Kathryn T. MacArthur
Foundation, the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, the Rockefeller Foundation,
and the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation.
J. H. GIBSON, CHAIRMAN
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